This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
We've got six games on the docket Thursday as the NBA marches down the stretch run, and there are a couple of particularly intriguing spots. The Lakers and Pelicans meet up in a battle between the two fastest-paced squads in the league, but how New Orleans' third game in three nights will affect their play is very much an open question. Meanwhile, most of the other contests have playoff implications for at least one of the teams, but the one that doesn't, the Hawks-Kings nightcap, could feature some freewheeling offense from two clubs with nothing to lose. Without further ado, let's examine how best to sort out some strong plays:
GUARDS:
Ben Simmons, PHI at ORL ($17,500): For those that can't quite foot the bill for James Harden ($21,500), Simmons checks in as the next-best alternative at the top tier. Simmons already has one solid game against the Magic on his resume (17 points, seven assists, four rebounds and one steal across 29 minutes) and has scored 37.75 to 57.50 fantasy points over the last five games while averaging an impressive 1.44 fantasy points per minute. The Magic have been a good team to target with point guards all season as well, and they've been even more vulnerable lately. Orlando comes in allowing 46.3 fantasy points per contest to ones over the last five contests, along with the second-highest shooting percentage (52.0) to the position over that span. The Magic's league-high amount of points in the paint allowed (49.1) also shapes up well for Simmons, considering he logs 79.8 percent of his scoring (12.9 points per game) in that area of the floor.
Buddy Hield, SAC vs. ATL ($12,300): It's worth noting that Dennis Schroder ($12,100) is also very much worthy of consideration in this same contest. Meanwhile, there's an interesting dilemma with the Kings' shooting guard situation Thursday, as Bogdan Bogdanovic ($10,300) is listed as probable with his hamstring injury and represents a significant savings over Hield. His return would also figure to send Hield back to the bench, but a further look at the numbers suggests that the development won't necessarily hurt his prospects. After all, while Hield's 37.00 fantasy points against the Pistons in his most recent game came in a starting opportunity in place of Bogdanovic, he'd also scored 41.75 to 43.00 fantasy points in the three games prior with the latter in the lineup. He's been doing it with some red-hot shooting, posting a 52.3 percent success rate on his 13.0 shot attempts per contest over the last five, including 45.7 percent on his 7.0 three-point tries. Moreover, he typically sees minutes in the upper 20s to low 30s even on the second unit, while the Hawks come in allowing the most fantasy points (65.8) to two-guards over the last five and the second-most on the season (39.4) to small forwards, the two positions that Hield would potentially be deployed in.
Wayne Selden, Jr., MEM at CHA ($6,600): The Hawks' Damion Lee ($6,100), set to start at shooting guard, is also a very low-risk tournament play, while E'Twaun Moore ($8,200) is also in an appealing spot, although the Pelicans' third game in three nights gives plenty of reason for pause. Meanwhile, Selden is priced right and has been making some waves over the last several games. Granted, Tyreke Evans is expected back in the lineup Thursday after being out the last two games, but Selden still saw 21 minutes with Evans in the lineup three games ago. He's scored 24.25 to 28.00 fantasy points overall in the last three, and a matchup against a Hornets squad that's allowed 49.7 fantasy points over the last 10 to two-guards, as well as the most made threes (4.9) and highest shooting percentage (50.0) to the position over that span, should put him in a favorable spot. Selden is notably shooting 51.3 percent over the last four, including 52.2 percent from distance.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Joel Embiid, PHI at ORL ($18,000): Embiid turned in a relatively modest (by his standards) 32.25 fantasy points against the Grizzlies, but the fact he did it over just 19 minutes puts that total in proper context. It also should leave Embiid with fairly fresh legs despite the back-to-back, putting him in a favorable position against a Magic squad that he's already averaged 23.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists over 27.5 minutes across two games this season. Orlando also comes in allowing the third-most fantasy points (37.0) to centers on the campaign -- including 48.8 over the last five – along with the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating (31.5) to the position on the season as well. Moreover, as mentioned earlier, Orlando has proven to be the most vulnerable team in the paint this season, which should also work in Embiid's favor in another game the Sixers need to keep improving their playoff positioning.
Julius Randle, LAL at NO ($13,400): Randle has shot 73.7 percent over two games against the Pelicans this season, and New Orleans could certainly be at less-than-optimal efficiency while playing an extremely rare third game in three nights. That bolsters Randle's already strong case at a price that he's blown out of the water on multiple occasions recently. The big man has scored 38.00 to 69.50 fantasy points over the last five, a span that includes a pair of outings with more than 40 fantasy points and an average of 1.26 fantasy points per minute overall. The Pelicans are allowing the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (26.8), along with the second-most fantasy points (41.5). This should also be the fastest-paced contest of the night with the two clubs ranked first and second in possessions per game, while the Pelicans' fourth-most points in the paint allowed (47.6) dovetails nicely with the fact that Randle logs 72.9 percent of his scoring in that part of the floor.
Cheick Diallo, NO vs. LAL ($7,200): Diallo is one Pelican who might not be as worn out as some of his other teammates Thursday, as he's played a relatively modest 24 and 19 minutes in the first two games of New Orleans' triple-header. He's been thriving with extended opportunity as well, posting 22.50 to 28.50 fantasy points in his last three, and 33.75 in another contest over the last six. He's in a favorable spot against a Lakers squad that's been vulnerable down low all season, allowing the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating to frontcourts (78.1). Accordingly, they also sport bottom-10 rankings in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards (40.2) and centers (35.5) on the season, and they allow the second-most points in the paint (48.6), including 49.6 on the road.
UTILITY:
Rudy Gobert, UTA at DAL ($15,100): Gobert has already punished the Mavs for averages of 15.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 steal across 34.0 minutes in two games this season, and he's scored 38.50 to 58.50 fantasy points in nine of the last 10 contests overall. The Stifle Tower is averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute during that impressive stretch, while Dallas comes in ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to centers (30.9) on the season. Gobert has seen a nice uptick in offensive involvement lately also – his 10.8 shot attempts over the last five are a notable increase over his 8.3 season figure – while the Mavs' sixth-lowest team shooting percentage (44.7) on the season should afford Gobert a few extra rebounding opportunities as well.
Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. PHI ($13,300): Gordon made a successful return to the lineup Tuesday against the Raptors, scoring 33.00 fantasy points over 33 minutes while demonstrating he was fully recovered from his concussion. He's averaged an impressive 18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.5 blocks across 33.0 minutes in two games versus the Sixers this season as well, and he'd been exhibiting strong play before his injury, scoring over 50 fantasy points twice in the four games prior. Philadelphia is also allowing 48.8 fantasy points to power forwards over the last five, a significant increase over their 37.6 season figure. Finally, the tempo should work in Gordon's favor as well, as Philly's fifth-ranked pace of play (102.8 possessions per game) will represent a slight bump for Orlando.
