Next Monday in Chicago, the fates of many future NBA players, as well as current GMs and coaches, will be altered, with the annual draft lottery deciding who picks where. And with a prospect like Cooper Flagg there for the taking, interest - and luck - will be at an all-time high.
Utilizing ChatGPT, we used their Artificial Intelligence to simulate the lottery 10,000 times, generating the number of times each lottery team won the #1 pick – based on their official odds given by the NBA. This large sample size should produce results very close to the theoretical probabilities due to minimal variance.
#1 Pick Distribution Across 10,000 Simulations
Team | #1 Picks | Percentage | Official Odds | Difference |
Utah Jazz | 1,402 | 14.02% | 14.0% | +0.02% |
Washington Wizards | 1,398 | 13.98% | 14.0% | -0.02% |
Charlotte Hornets | 1,395 | 13.95% | 14.0% | -0.05% |
New Orleans Pelicans | 1,248 | 12.48% | 12.5% | -0.02% |
Philadelphia 76ers | 1,051 | 10.51% | 10.5% | +0.01% |
Brooklyn Nets | 902 | 9.02% | 9.0% | +0.02% |
Toronto Raptors | 749 | 7.49% | 7.5% | -0.01% |
San Antonio Spurs | 598 | 5.98% | 6.0% | -0.02% |
Houston Rockets | 381 | 3.81% | 3.8% | +0.01% |
Portland Trail Blazers | 369 | 3.69% | 3.7% | -0.01% |
Dallas Mavericks | 179 | 1.79% | 1.8% | -0.01% |
Chicago Bulls | 171 | 1.71% | 1.7% | +0.01% |
Sacramento Kings | 80 | 0.80% | 0.8% | 0.00% |
San Antonio Spurs (via ATL) | 77 | 0.77% | 0.7% | +0.07% |
Jazz, Wizards, Hornets Look To Capture The Flagg
For fans of the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets, this simulation is probably equal parts encouraging and painful. Each club has an official 14% likelihood of landing the No. 1 pick next week, with all three franchises widely expected to select Flagg if given the chance.
But as fans can see through the simulation, winning the lottery is far from a sure thing. The Jazz landed the first pick just over 14% of the time, while the Wizards and Hornets trailed at 13.98% and 13.95%, respectively.
For the Jazz and coach Will Hardy, landing Flagg can jumpstart the organization's rebuild and give the franchise its first true face since the days of Donovan Mitchell. The club went 17-55 last season, with Lauri Markkanen and John Collins leading in scoring. The Jazz have gotten worse each season under Hardy, and franchise CEO Danny Ainge won't stay patient for much longer. Landing a game-changer like Flagg will accelerate Ainge's long-term plan, and likely save Hardy.
In DC, the Wizards last season regressed from 35-47 to 15-67, with just the spark of Jordan Poole being worth the price of admission. Coach Brian Keefe will enter his second full season leading the team, and needs to show his squad can at least be competitive in the Eastern Conference to get to Year 3.
Then there's the Charlotte Hornets, recently voted by NBA players as the least professional franchise, league-wide. That poll, courtesy of The Athletic, illustrates the apathy that has surrounded the Hornets since the days of peak Kemba Walker. The Hornets have a few nice players in LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, but Ball - and center Mark Williams - struggle to stay on the court consistently. That is one of just many reasons the franchise finds itself in the mix for the No. 1 pick.
Could Flagg save the Jazz/Wizards or Hornets? Time will tell, and we'll likely know where he's bound by next Monday.
Other clubs like the Pelicans, Nets and 76ers have a shot at the No. 1 pick as well, but AI signals Flagg is more than likely headed to Utah, DC or Charlotte.
