This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.
Spent a fair amount of time last week discussing Wes Matthews with a reader. The discussion went something like this:
"Should I pick up Wes Matthews?"
"Probably not."
"How about now?"
"Nope."
"Now?"
It was the fantasy basketball equivalent of the "Are we there yet?" conversation that most parents will have with their kids on the way to Grandma's house over Thanksgiving weekend.
In retrospect, that may have been unfair.
My hesitation with Matthews is very simple. He's working his way back from a ruptured Achiilles' tendon. As CBS' Chris Towers pointed out just after Matthews' injury, the list of NBA players who have fully recovered from that particular injury is exceptionally short. This isn't a "wait for the second full season after Tommy John surgery" thing, or a "ACLs take about a year" thing. Here's the list of guys who have returned to their previous levels of production after an Achilles' rupture:
Dominique Wilkins
(Yes, that's the whole list.)
So what are the counter-arguments? Well, the fact that Wilkins did come back and play at an all-star level shows that full recovery is possible, if not particularly likely. (Insert Jim Carrey "so you're saying there's a chance" .gif here.) And Matthews' team is another positive - Rick Carlisle seems to have a real knack for managing players with scary injury histories. (See also: Deron Williams, another player I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.)
But here's the best reason to take a chance on Matthews: on the
Spent a fair amount of time last week discussing Wes Matthews with a reader. The discussion went something like this:
"Should I pick up Wes Matthews?"
"Probably not."
"How about now?"
"Nope."
"Now?"
It was the fantasy basketball equivalent of the "Are we there yet?" conversation that most parents will have with their kids on the way to Grandma's house over Thanksgiving weekend.
In retrospect, that may have been unfair.
My hesitation with Matthews is very simple. He's working his way back from a ruptured Achiilles' tendon. As CBS' Chris Towers pointed out just after Matthews' injury, the list of NBA players who have fully recovered from that particular injury is exceptionally short. This isn't a "wait for the second full season after Tommy John surgery" thing, or a "ACLs take about a year" thing. Here's the list of guys who have returned to their previous levels of production after an Achilles' rupture:
Dominique Wilkins
(Yes, that's the whole list.)
So what are the counter-arguments? Well, the fact that Wilkins did come back and play at an all-star level shows that full recovery is possible, if not particularly likely. (Insert Jim Carrey "so you're saying there's a chance" .gif here.) And Matthews' team is another positive - Rick Carlisle seems to have a real knack for managing players with scary injury histories. (See also: Deron Williams, another player I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.)
But here's the best reason to take a chance on Matthews: on the surface, it looks like a really bad idea.
In any fantasy sports game - or in horse racing, or any other betting/handicapping situation, the most valuable opinion is the one that nobody else holds. If you really think Matthews is going to defy the odds and produce good fantasy numbers this season, don't let me - or anyone else - talk you out of it. He could turn out to be that 25-to-1 shot that the other bettors overlooked.
In other words... don't look for me or anyone else to validate your opinion. Use this column and my analysis as one factor, but make a decision based on what you think, not what I think.
(That said, I still don't want him. I'm taking a chance on Ty Lawson instead.)
Generic Yahoo Team Update:
My generic Yahoo! team is still placed pretty solidly in the top half of the league, and the early returns on last week's big pickup - DeMarre Carroll - have been encouraging. But I lost Jonas Valanciunas, who broke his left hand and is expected to miss about six weeks. Valanciunas is a nice player, but not good enough to take up space on my roster for six weeks of recovery time and another 2-3 weeks of limited minutes while he works his way back into shape, so I hit the wire looking for a replacement.
There are lots of center-qualifiers available in that league, but most of them are most valuable when another player misses time… guys like Clint Capela (when Dwight Howard sits) or Kosta Koufos (DeMarcus Cousins) or Gorgui Dieng (Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett). I considered Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk, but Boston's frontcourt is log-jammed; Brad Stevens is playing about 19 different centers and forwards about 20 minutes per game, which makes all of them poor plays in a shallow league like this one.
So, I opted to fill the void with Indiana's Ian Mahinmi (14 percent owned). I'm hoping he'll give me some decent rebound and block numbers, shoot well from the field and not hurt me too badly in FT%.
I'm also putting in a claim on Marvin Williams (59 percent), because I feel like my roster has become a little too guard-heavy with last week's flyer on Ty Lawson.
Picks for the Week
As always, we're shooting for a cross-section of players who will be available for the taking in both shallow and deep talent pools. Percent-owned stats are based on a default Yahoo League with roto scoring; your mileage may vary. If you have a question about a specific player feel free to hit me up in the comments or on Twitter @charliezegers.
Ryan Anderson (87 percent) - A wide range of injuries have obscured the fact that, when he's on, Anderson is one of the league's most effective shooters. And it looks like he's finally back in form, which is nice to see.
Zach LaVine (52 percent) - LaVine is producing roster-worthy numbers off the bench for the T-Wolves, but he becomes a real value when Ricky Rubio is out of the lineup. And nobody is confusing Rubio with Cal Ripken; he left Minnesota's last game after aggravating his troublesome ankle and will be sidelined for an as-yet-unknown period of time.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (13 percent) - One of (very few) bright spots for the Nets this season, the rookie wing has posted double-doubles in two of his last three games.
O.J. Mayo (3 percent) - Not hard to figure out what Jason Kidd wants from Mayo: three point shooting. He played a season-high 29 minutes in Wednesday's game, letting fly from deep 12 times during that span. He hit just two - but that could be rust; he's barely played this season. If he starts hitting at his established career levels - roughly 37 percent from deep - he could be an asset in that category.
JaVale McGee (2 percent) - He's been a punch line for so long, it's easy to forget that McGee was once a very dynamic young frontcourt player. If anyone can coax that potential out of him once again it's Mavs coach Rick Carlisle. He's only played in two games so far after missing the first month recovering from a stress fracture, so McGee will be brought along slowly. But don't be surprised if he's pushing starter Zaza Pachulia for minutes once he's completely healthy and in game shape.
