Will Definitely Miss Time to Start the Season
Kristaps Porzingis, Celtics 
Porzingis played through his foot injury in the NBA Finals but underwent surgery in June to repair the issue. He's expected to be out for all of October and November, with a best-case scenario being a December return. Quietly, he played just 57 games for Boston last year during the regular season. He posted strong numbers when available, though, averaging 20.1 points on 52/38/86 shooting, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 blocks and 0.7 steals in 29.6 minutes.
While Porzingis may otherwise be worth selecting in the 45-60 range, that can't be the case this year. Assuming he's back in December, and that's a big assumption, we'd probably be lucky to see him play a full complement of minutes before January. I wouldn't even be surprised if Porzingis doesn't see 30 minutes in a game until after the All-Star break. Boston won the title last year and are the favorites again – there's no reason to rush Porzingis back.
Current ADP on most sites has him going around picks 90-110. I don't have much of a problem with that, but make sure your league is friendly to long-term injuries before diving in. If you're playing in a 12-team league with shallow benches and no IR, holding onto Porzingis until he's giving you real production will be tough. If you're playing in a deeper format with an IR, maybe even two IRs, you're incurring less risk taking him at pick 90. It's still a big upside swing, and he's still an injury risk after he gets back, not to mention rest days.
In his absence, Al Horford will presumably start and see a boost, but there will be rest days for him. At 38 years old, you also just have to consider general decline and ability to play 30 minutes. There should be plenty of nights where Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman and Neemias Queta get real run. Who sees the bulk of the minutes may depend on matchup. Horford is the only one I have interest in for a standard draft, but even then, I don't think I'd bother with anything but a final pick.
Devin Vassell, Spurs 
Foot surgery ended Vassell's 2023-24 campaign early, keeping him out for all of April. It was anticipated that he'd be ready to start this season, but his foot didn't heal properly. A second surgery was required in late June. Vassell will be re-evaluated on Nov. 1, but fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if he misses meaningful time beyond that. And once he's back, his minutes will probably be limited significantly.
As the Spurs' up-and-coming second option, Vassell had shown enough to be worthy of a pick in the 60-80 range this season. Now, he's looking more like a pick in the 100 range, with the assumption he's essentially a full-go at some point in December.
What will the Spurs do in the meantime? This may be an opportunity to start rookie Stephon Castle right out of the gate, though I would not be shocked if Malaki Branham gets first crack at it. It might make more sense to bring Castle off the bench to help run the second unit with Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson, assuming Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan and Chris Paul start. I'd entertain drafting Castle with a final pick, but a similar bump may go to Paul, Johnson and Sochan from a usage perspective.
Mitchell Robinson, Knicks 
Robinson was an option around pick 100 (or pick No. 1 if you play in a league that scores passive-aggressive Instagram posts) before it was revealed he won't be suiting up until December at the earliest. And that was under the assumption he'd start at center, too. Things aren't as clear anymore, especially with the Knicks trading Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns.
This is pure speculation, but I don't believe Robinson will start when he's back. It's possible he'll still find 25 minutes per game. Towns can obviously play power forward when necessary, and maybe there are some matchups where it makes sense to start two bigs and bring Josh Hart off the bench. If you want to draft Robinson with your final pick, put him on IR, and then grab someone with upside off waivers – go for it. I'm just not convinced he'll be any better than in recent seasons, like we initially hoped he'd be.
While Robinson is out, Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims should see the bulk of the backup center minutes. Achiuwa is a potential late-round gamble in a deep league just because the Knicks lack frontcourt depth, and he may need to see minutes in the mid-20s. I also think he can share the floor with Towns. OG Anunoby is also injury prone. Sims may have some moments, but there's no reason to draft him.
Players to Keep an Eye On
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers 
Kawhi gets secret offseason surgeries like mobsters in movies who get shot and can't go to the hospital because of the paper trail. They get taken to Frankie "The Butcher" Giordano, who uses a decorative knife set to remove the bullets while the victim downs half a bottle of whiskey. In this cas4e, the bullets are crucial knee ligaments, and "The Butcher" has operated on Kawhi's right knee three times since suffering a partially-torn ACL in 2021. That's in addition, of course, to the quad tendinopathy that started this whole drama with the Spurs back in 2017.
He's being limited to begin training camp, though believes he'll be ready for Opening Night. After watching this saga unfold over the past half-decade, I can tell you I don't care about anything Kawhi says about his injuries; I don't care about what his people say about his injuries; I don't care what the team says about his injuries. I do not believe any utterances about timelines, expectations, beliefs and – dare I say – vibes.
Maybe he'll play 68 games again and burn me in fantasy. But how many 33-year-olds are you trusting to play 68 games, just on face value? Let alone someone with Kawhi's injury history? He can be a first-round value. He's that talented. I'm just not willing to take the risk before pick 40.
Any time Kawhi misses time, it's going to be the James Harden show. Combined with Paul George's departure, Kawhi's potential for injury could lead to a real bounceback season from Harden. I wouldn't be surprised if he put together first-round fantasy production. The Clippers are short on other playmakers, so I would also keep an eye on Norman Powell and Kevin Porter. I could also see scenarios in which Ivica Zubac is asked to shoot or pass a bit more.
Mark "Doubtful" Williams, Hornets 
Mark Williams was deemed doubtful on a game-to-game basis for four months last season with a bruised lower back. By the NBA's standards, "doubtful" means a player has a 25% chance of playing. That means that Williams, 62 times in a row, failed an outcome that had a 25% chance of happening. The odds of that are 1-in-55,744,454 (0.000001794%). What an unlucky guy.
To be clear, this is probably not Williams' fault. If NBA injury reporting is a joke, the Hornets are world-class comedians. I have no problem saying they repeatedly lie and deceive fans, reporters and fantasy managers when it comes to the chances of their players suiting up. They aren't the only team that does this, but I'll save that rant for another day.
Anyway, Williams has a strained tendon in his foot and is set to be re-evaluated in about a week and a half. See you in December. Just kidding. Or am I?
If Williams misses any time, backup center Nick Richards should take over. He's worth rostering when he starts. Grant Williams may also see more minutes. I'm not high on him at all, though.
Jaren Jackson, Grizzlies 
Jackson hurt his hamstring during training camp recently, but the Grizzlies are not concerned about him missing the start of the season. He has a history of injuries, however. Exercise a bit of caution in general when drafting him.
Luka Doncic, Mavericks 
Doncic bruised his calf Wednesday and is out at least a week. He's expected to be ready to start the season.
Josh Giddey, Bulls 
Giddey sprained his ankle during the Paris Olympics. He's been participating in non-contact work so far in training camp but is close to being fully cleared with the expectation of playing in the season opener.
Khris Middleton, Bucks 
Bad news for the "Middleton is a sleeper this season" crowd (me). After undergoing surgery on both of his ankles, Middleton will be limited to begin training camp – not yet being cleared for 5-on-5 work. I'm maintaining relative optimism that he'll be playing his standard workload in November, and I still think selecting him around his ADP (100 on Yahoo) is a good upside play. Absences from Middleton could mean minutes and usage are spread between Gary Trent, Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. Trent and Wright are most likely to have breakout games – Trent as a scorer and Wright as a defender.
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