NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Thursday, March 20

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Thursday, March 20

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a five-game slate on tap Thursday night capped by a Bucks-Lakers nightcap that should feature some star power on either side. The injury report is relatively modest, but LeBron James and pair of other big names are going to remain out. 

Slate Overview

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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, 3/20 @ 1:00 a.m. EDT:    

New York Knicks (-7.5) at Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 221.5)
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers (-9) (O/U: 225.5)
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-14.5) (O/U: 224.5)
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings (-7) (O/U: 234.5)
Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) at Los Angeles Lakers (O/U: 225.0)

For a slate that features only one game between teams with winning records, Thursday's betting lines aren't too discouraging on paper. Even the one projected blowout between the Raptors and Warriors could turn out to be more competitive than expected. 

Meanwhile, projected totals aren't elite for DFS purposes by any stretch, but the fact that all but one game is at 224.5 points or higher offers reason for optimism with respect to the chances of multiple standout individual performances.

Injury Situations to Monitor   

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.

LeBron James, LAL (groin): OUT

In LeBron's continued absence, Dorian Finney-Smith is likely to draw another start while Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves will be in line for increased usage.

Tyrese Haliburton, IND (back): GTD

If Haliburton can't play, Bennedict Mathurin should remain in the starting five and the rest of the first unit will benefit from a boost in usage.

Domantas Sabonis, SAC (ankle): OUT

In Sabonis' ongoing absence, Jonas Valanciunas should remain the starting center and DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk will be set for a major increase in opportunity if Zach LaVine (personal) is also out. 

Jalen Brunson, NYK (ankle): OUT

In Brunson's ongoing absence, Miles McBride and Cameron Payne should handle point-guard duties and Karl-Anthony Towns could be the biggest beneficiary in terms of a boost in usage rate.

Other notable injuries:

Brandon Ingram, TOR (ankle): OUT 
Rui Hachimura, LAL (knee): OUT
Bobby Portis, MIL (suspension): OUT
Cameron Johnson, BKN (rest): OUT
Zach LaVine, SAC (personal): GTD
LaMelo Ball, CHA (wrist): PROBABLE
Miles Bridges, CHA (illness): PROBABLE
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (calf): PROBABLE
Damian Lillard, MIL (groin): PROBABLE

Elite Players

We have two players with five-figure salaries on Thursday's slate: Luka Doncic ($12,000) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700).

(UPDATE: Doncic has now been ruled out for Thursday's game): Doncic has scored at least 55.3 FD points in five straight games and will continue to take the floor without LeBron James on Thursday in a favorable matchup against the Bucks' backcourt defense.

Antetokounmpo has exceeded 54 FD points in four consecutive games and should be locked into a full workload in a marquee matchup against the Lakers, against whom he posted 54.9 FD points in the first game of the sample. 

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK ($9,700)

Towns has scored 41 FD points or more in five of the last six games and is the best candidate to serve as the Knicks' usage leader again with Jalen Brunson still out.

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($9,400)

Ball is expected to be back on the floor after sitting out Tuesday's game against the Hawks and has posted 46.9 and 52.1 FD points in two of his last three games, which should keep him highly rostered on the small slate.

Stephen Curry, GSW ($8,900)

Curry has averaged 44.6 FD points in the last 10 games while shooting 42.1 percent from deep in that span, which should keep him popular at his salary.

Austin Reaves, LAL ($8,700)

Reaves has tallies of 48.0 to 74.1 FD points in the last four games and will continue to play without LeBron James on Thursday, which should lock in a high roster rate. 

Josh Hart, NYK ($8,100)

Hart has scored 33.9 to 57.1 FD points in three of the last four games, and his usage should remain elevated Thursday due to Jalen Brunson's ongoing absence. 

Key Values  

Keegan Murray, SAC vs. CHI ($6,000)

Murray had eclipsed 31 FD points in the two games prior to Wednesday's tough matchup against the Cavaliers, where he still turned in a serviceable 21.3 FD points. However, the third-year pro could be set for a resurgence Thursday, considering the matchup against a Bulls team ranked No. 29 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to power forwards (28.3) and that's surrendered 48.4 FD points per contest to fours as well. Murray also supplied 28 FD points against Chicago in his one prior meeting with the Bulls this season, and if Zach LaVine is out again due to a personal issue Thursday, the former will have even more opportunities to thrive. 

Aaron Nesmith, IND vs. BKN ($5,800)

Nesmith returned from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury to score 28 FD points versus the Mavericks on Wednesday, and he'd also put up 25.6 and and 40.8 FD points in the two games prior. The fifth-year forward is also shooting a career-high 50.0 percent this season, including a blistering 41.4 percent from behind the arc. Nesmith went into Wednesday's contest versus Dallas with an even hotter hand since the calendar flipped to March (52.4 percent shooting, 46.4 percent from three-point range), and he proceed to go 6-for-9 from the field (3-for-5 from distance) in that contest. The opposing Nets have yielded 37.5 percent three-point shooting to small forwards as well, strengthening Nesmith's case.

Jonathan Kuminga, GSW vs. TOR ($5,300)

Kuminga had a quiet outing against the Bucks on Tuesday (13.4 FD points in 24 minutes), but prior to that contest, he'd averaged 24.7 FD points with the help of 48.7 percent shooting in his first three games back from a lengthy absence. Tuesday marked Kuminga's first back-to-back set since Dec. 27-28, which may have had a part to play in his unremarkable production. He's now had a day of rest for an appealing matchup against the Raptors, which have surrendered the ninth-highest offensive efficiency rating to second-unit players (44.5), as well as 42.7 FD points per contest to small forwards in the last seven games.

ALSO CONSIDER: Matas Buzelis, CHI at SAC ($5,100)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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