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Best Bets
Nets to cover +2.5 (-110) at Hawks
PointsBet, 3:35 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is a substantial rest situation in favor of the Nets. Brooklyn is on two days of rest, and this is only their third game since last Wednesday. Meanwhile, Atlanta is coming off the barnburner to end all barnburners, losing 157-152 in regulation to the Pacers yesterday. Dejounte Murray got banged up as well and is questionable with a bruised quad.
Heat 3Q + game moneyline (+165) at Cavaliers
Editor's note (the editor is Alex): Bam Adebayo was surprisingly ruled out around an hour after I posted this, so I no longer endorse it. But if you still think the Heat are in a good position with the Cavs on a B2B, it's worth seeing what value is out there. At 5:15 PM CT, the Heat are +1, which I don't love.
DraftKings, 3:40 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back after a huge overtime victory over the 76ers yesterday. They also haven't had more than one day of rest since Nov. 8-11. They're still down Donovan Mitchell and potentially Caris LeVert, who is questionable. Miami is running hot, winning 8 of their past 9 games, and they have the rest advantage, last playing Monday in Chicago. I think Cleveland will run out of gas in the second half.
Nuggets 3Q + game moneyline (+150) at Magic
DraftKings, 3:46 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Orlando is definitely one of the most underrated teams in the NBA, but this is a bad spot for them. They're on the second night of a back-to-back, and they also had a Tuesday/Wednesday back-to-back last week, making this their sixth game since/including last Tuesday. This will be Denver's fifth game in that same span, but it includes no back-to-backs, and Nikola Jokic is fresher than usual after being ejected early into Monday's game against the Pistons.
Rockets to cover -5.0 (-110) vs. Grizzlies
FanDuel, 3:53 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I don't often pick favorites on the spread without some sort of extra kicker, but I just think this line is wrong. What I think is driving this line: Memphis has a one-day rest advantage and has two of their three wins in the past four games, while Houston has lost three in a row. Based on Simple Rating (net rating weighted by strength of schedule) combined with home-court advantage, you could make an argument that this line should be closer to something like Rockets -9.5. I would also consider (on DraftKings) a 2-leg parlay of Rockets to cover + VanVleet to hit over 3.5 threes for +274. The Grizzlies are allowing the most 3PM to opposing point guards. Memphis also allows the third-most blocks to opposing centers, and if you add Sengun over 0.5 blocks, the parlay goes up to +450. A little too sketchy for me to completely endorse, but the process supports it.
Timberwolves 3Q + game moneyline (+115) vs. 76ers
DraftKings, 4:02 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Do I sound like a broken record yet? Philly won't have Joel Embiid to face Minnesota's big frontcourt tonight. Plus, the 76ers are playing their sixth game since/including last Tuesday -- tonight being the second half of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Cavaliers. Minnesota isn't exactly on the freshest legs, but they had a day rest advantage and have played one fewer game over the same span. I like banking on a tired team to run out of gas out of halftime.
Parlay: Thunder 1Q + game moneyline + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 31.5 points (+230) vs. Bulls
DraftKings, 4:07 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Thunder are down Jalen Williams, which makes me nervous to take OKC at the -7 spread, but they definitely deserve the number. They had a Saturday/Sunday back-to-back but haven't played since then, giving them a one-day rest advantage over Chicago, who had a Friday/Saturday back-to-back and played Monday. It's just impossible to trust the Bulls after the organization made it clear things aren't working, and they're looking to blow the team up. This is the ultimate bad vibes vs. good vibes matchup. As for SGA, he has a comical 43.1 USG% with Williams off the floor, taking 28.2 shots (and 9.9 free throws) per 36 minutes.
Jordan Poole + LaMelo Ball to each score 20+ points (+104)
FanDuel Sportsbook, 1pm CT
Nick Whalen: We're dipping our toes into a little same-game parlay at FanDuel and hoping that Poole has found something after putting up 30 points (on 26 shots) against Milwaukee on Monday. It was just Poole's third 20-point game of the year, but this should be a good spot for him to get loose again, even if he struggled in two previous matchups with the Hornets. Both teams rank in the top-10 in pace and the bottom five in defensive rating. The LaMelo portion of the bet is much less of a concern, as Ball has averaged 32.0 points in 37.1 minutes per game over his last eight.
