This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
2-Leg Parlay: Heat moneyline + Tatum under 26.5 points (+191)
FanDuel, 2:06 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This may be a schedule loss for the Celtics. They're coming off a brutal seven-game series against the Bucks that just ended Sunday. Only one day of rest against a fresh Heat team feels like a recipe for disaster, even without Kyle Lowry. And, there's some bias here from me as a disgruntled Bucks fan, but Tatum is not being guarded by Wesley Matthews anymore. He'll be driving into Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and PJ Tucker. The Heat also play a more swarming, switching defense instead of the Bucks' concrete scheme that is maybe the easiest to prepare for in the NBA, even if it's generally good. Tatum also struggled in the regular season against Miami, averaging just 17.7 points on 42/29/71 shooting in three games.
Heat -2.0 (-110) vs. Boston Celtics
DraftKings Sportsbook, 1:40 PM CT
Nick Whalen: I think Boston wins the series, and they're favored as such, but I see this as a schedule loss. The Celtics just played a grueling Game 7 forty-eight hours ago, while the Heat have been off since Thursday night. The absence of Kyle Lowry is a glaring issue for Miami, but the Heat should be due to shoot significantly better from three. Entering this series, they're sitting under 30 percent for the postseason.
Al Horford over 10.5 points (+100)
FanDuel. 1:19 PM CT
Ken Crites: I think Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is going to focus Miami's defensive efforts on shutting down Jayson Tatum. That will mean Bam Adebayo roaming more than usual and leaving Al Horton open for some easy put-ins. Tatum's passing prowess is often overlooked. For the playoffs, Tatum is averaging 6.1 dimes per game. I'm also expecting Robert Williams to play very few minutes. For his first eight playoff games this season, Horford averaged 15.9 points per contest. But Big Al scored in single-digits in his last three Buck games. That's a long way of me saying I think Big Al is due.
Max Strus first basket (+800), Strus OVER 12.5 points (-110), Strus OVER 16.5 Pts + Reb (-115)
FanDuel, 12:45 PM
Kirien Sprecher: Strus was signed by the Celtics as an undrafted free agent out of DePaul in 2019, but he was waived before the start of the season. The 6-foot-5 sharpshooter has since found a home in Miami and flourished this season after supplanting Duncan Robinson as the Heat's starting shooting guard. Across 11 playoff games, he's averaging 12.5 points and 4.4 rebounds, but I expect a vengeful performance from Strus against his former team in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
