Weekly Pitcher Rankings: New Math Says One Start Likely Better than Two

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: New Math Says One Start Likely Better than Two

This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.

For most of the season, it sure feels like the lede has been something about the poor quality of two-start options. It's about time we accepted the fact that hunting for two-start pitchers isn't as viable an option as it was in past seasons. Truth be told, this likelihood was recognized early on, which was part of the impetus for adding the relievers and NFBC rostership levels to these rankings, since this facilitates finding the available single-start hurlers with the best matchups.

Another factor is the disparity between the top and bottom offenses. On a daily basis, there are more streaming options than there were in previous campaigns, as the number of horrible lineups has increased. However, this has not aided double-dippers to the same degree, since the level of solid lineups has also risen. Further, the quality of the better lineups has improved. So, while the bottom-feeding matchups are more favorable, they are often mitigated by a challenging date with a potent offense.

Of course, we're at the time of the season where team needs dictate decisions, with these rankings being a guide. Keep in mind ratio categories are still in play and will be until the last day of the season.

Also, while I am happy to address specific rankings queries below, please direct schedule questions to the Probable Pitchers page.

UPDATED: Monday August 22, 1:55 AM ET

Week of August 22 - 28

Mixed

RankPitcherTMOPPCommentsMIX12MIX15
1Max ScherzerNYM@NYY, COL

For most of the season, it sure feels like the lede has been something about the poor quality of two-start options. It's about time we accepted the fact that hunting for two-start pitchers isn't as viable an option as it was in past seasons. Truth be told, this likelihood was recognized early on, which was part of the impetus for adding the relievers and NFBC rostership levels to these rankings, since this facilitates finding the available single-start hurlers with the best matchups.

Another factor is the disparity between the top and bottom offenses. On a daily basis, there are more streaming options than there were in previous campaigns, as the number of horrible lineups has increased. However, this has not aided double-dippers to the same degree, since the level of solid lineups has also risen. Further, the quality of the better lineups has improved. So, while the bottom-feeding matchups are more favorable, they are often mitigated by a challenging date with a potent offense.

Of course, we're at the time of the season where team needs dictate decisions, with these rankings being a guide. Keep in mind ratio categories are still in play and will be until the last day of the season.

Also, while I am happy to address specific rankings queries below, please direct schedule questions to the Probable Pitchers page.

UPDATED: Monday August 22, 1:55 AM ET

Week of August 22 - 28

Mixed

RankPitcherTMOPPCommentsMIX12MIX15
1Max ScherzerNYM@NYY, COLBack in form  
2Jacob deGromNYMCOL   
3Shane McClanahanTBLAA   
4Julio UriasLADMIL, @MIA   
5Gerrit ColeNYY@OAK   
6Dylan CeaseCWS@BAL, ARIHistoric season, but estimators a run higher (which would still be an excellent ERA)
7Robbie RaySEAWAS, CLEControl woes are back  
8Justin VerlanderHOUMIN   
9Luis CastilloSEACLE   
10Max FriedATL@PIT   
11Nestor CortesNYY@OAK   
12Jordan MontgomerySTL@CHC, ATL   
13Sonny GrayMINTEX, SF   
14Triston McKenzieCLE@SEAGetting better as the season progresses  
15Chris BassittNYMCOL   
16Shane BieberCLE@SEA   
17Aaron NolaPHICIN   
18Edward CabreraMIA@OAK, LADPrimed to be a difference-maker down the stretch  
19Alek ManoahTORLAA9 BB over last 16.2 IP  
20Corbin BurnesMIL@LAD   
21Zac GallenARI@KC   
22Pablo LopezMIA@OAK, LAD   
23Yu DarvishSDCLE   
24Adam WainwrightSTL@CHC, ATL   
25Tyler AndersonLAD@MIA   
26Ranger SuarezPHICIN, PITTook a bit, but showing he can be a solid starter  
27Michael KopechCWS@KC, ARINice transition to starter, but need to be more pitch efficient 
28Tony GonsolinLADMILContinues to be both good and lucky  
29Drew RasmussenTBLAA   
30Logan WebbSF@DET   
31Cristian JavierHOUBAL   
32Zack WheelerPHICIN   
33Framber ValdezHOUMIN   
34Cole IrvinOAKMIA   
35Joe MusgroveSD@KCGood spot to get out of rut  
36Jeffrey SpringsTBLAA, @BOS   
37Brandon WoodruffMILCHC   
38Eric LauerMIL@LAD, CHCHome runs continue to be an issue  
39Brady SingerKCARIMaybe the Royals can develop good pitching  
40Kyle WrightATL@PIT   
41Jameson TaillonNYY@OAK   
42Carlos RodonSF@DET   
43George KirbySEAWASKeying the Mariners wild card run  
44Sandy AlcantaraMIALAD173 IP leads league. Only 27 pitchers compiled 173 IP last season. 
45Jesus LuzardoMIA@OAK   
46Aaron CivaleCLE@SD, @SEA  46%
47Jose UrquidyHOUBAL   
48Lance McCullers Jr.HOUBAL   
49Freddy PeraltaMILCHC   
50Andrew HeaneyLADMILRematch: Fanned 10 but allowed 3 HR in American Family Field last time
51Johnny CuetoCWSARI   
52Mike ClevingerSDCLE   
53Noah SyndergaardPHICIN, PIT   
54Dustin MayLAD@MIA 0%1%
55Spencer StriderATL@STL   
56Corey KluberTBLAA, @BOS   
57Logan GilbertSEACLE   
58Merrill KellyARI@CWS   
59Ross StriplingTOR@BOS, LAA   
60Shohei OhtaniLAA@TOR   
61Charlie MortonATL@STL   
62Domingo GermanNYYNYM, @OAK   
63David PetersonNYMCOL  30%
64Justin SteeleCHC@MIL24 K with just 3 BB over prior 16.2 IP  
65Miles MikolasSTL@CHC   
66Cal QuantrillCLE@SD   
67Kyle GibsonPHIPIT   
68Kevin GausmanTOR@BOS   
69Joe RyanMINSF   
70Blake SnellSD@KC34 K over last 22.2 IP, but still hasn't pitched into the 7th inning 
71Luis GarciaHOUMIN   
72Patrick SandovalLAA@TB   
73Marcus StromanCHCSTL   
74Nathan EovaldiBOSTB   
75Frankie MontasNYYNYM   
76Nick PivettaBOSTB   
77Zach PlesacCLE@SEA   
78Kyle FreelandCOL@NYM 34%10%
79JP SearsOAKNYY  37%
80Michael WachaBOSTOR   
81Lance LynnCWS@BAL   
82Glenn OttoTEXDET  12%
83Tommy HenryARI@CWS 9%1%
84Jose QuintanaSTLATL   
85Mix 12 Reliever     
86Nick LodoloCIN@PHI, @WASRebounded from shaky Field of Dreams game  
87Sean ManaeaSD@KC   
88Jose SuarezLAA@TB  18%
89Mix 15 Reliever     
90Dylan BundyMIN@HOU  11%
91Roansy ContrerasPITATL   
92Rich HillBOSTOR, TB  4%
93Josiah GrayWASCIN   
94Jake OdorizziATL@PIT, @STL   
95Zach LogueOAKMIA, NYY 0%0%
96Madison BumgarnerARI@CWS   
97Mitch WhiteTORLAA  24%
98Reid DetmersLAA@TORNice test for the improving southpaw  
99Eduardo RodriguezDET@TEX  42%
100Tucker DavidsonLAA@TB, @TOR 2%0%
101Aaron AshbyMIL@LAD   
102Zack GreinkeKCSD  24%
103Taijuan WalkerNYM@NYY   
104Austin VothBALCWS, @HOU 32%4%
105Drew SmylyCHCSTL, @MIL  22%
106Daniel LynchKCCWS, SD  9%
107Alex WoodSF@MIN   
108Zach DaviesARI@KC 21%3%
109Graham AshcraftCIN@PHI  46%
110JT BrubakerPITATL  30%
111Dean KremerBAL@HOU  22%
112Adrian SampsonCHCSTL, @MIL 36%2%
113Marco GonzalesSEACLE   
114Anibal SanchezWAS@SEA 0%0%
115Ryan FeltnerCOL@NYM 0%0%
116Alex CobbSF@MIN   
117Jose BerriosTOR@BOS   
118Kutter CrawfordBOSTORPixie dust has worn off  
119Kohei AriharaTEXDET 0%0%
120Luis CessaCIN@PHI, @WAS 0%0%
121Chad KuhlCOL@NYM 11%13%
122Chris ArcherMIN@HOU  3%
123Matt ManningDETSF  7%
124Lucas GiolitoCWS@BALFavorable matchups, but so inconsistent. Your team, your call. 
125Touki ToussaintLAA@TB 23%2%
126James KaprielianOAKNYY  39%
127Erick FeddeWAS@SEA 2%1%
128Hayden Wesneski,CHCSTL 0%0%
129German MarquezCOLTEX, @NYM  40%
130Jakob JunisSF@MIN   
131Paolo EspinoWASCIN 0%0%
132Mitch KellerPITATL   
133Cole RagansTEX@MIN, DET 43%2%
134Martin PerezTEX@COL   
135Jordan LylesBALCWS  9%
136Ryan YarbroughTB@BOS 26%0%
137Matthew LiberatoreSTL@CHC 6%2%
138Justin DunnCIN@PHI 2%0%
139Jonathan HeasleyKCARI 0%1%
140Caleb KilianCHCSTL 6%1%
141Tyler AlexanderDET@TEX 13%1%
142Dakota HudsonSTL@CHC  19%
143Aaron SanchezMIN@HOU, SF 0%0%
144Kris BubicKCSD  23%
145Kyle BradishBAL@HOU  14%
146Zach ThompsonPIT@PHI 4%1%
147Spenser WatkinsBALCWS  8%
148Dane DunningTEX@COL  40%
149Mike MinorCIN@WAS 30%1%
150Bryse WilsonPIT@PHI 2%0%
151Adam OllerOAKMIA, NYY 0%0%
152Drew HutchisonDETSF, @TEX 6%1%
153Tyler BeedePIT@PHI 0%2%
154Patrick CorbinWASCIN 38%5%
155Jose UrenaCOLTEX 2%0%

American League

RankPitcherTMOPPComment
1Shane McClanahanTBLAA 
2Gerrit ColeNYY@OAK 
3Dylan CeaseCWS@BAL, ARIHistoric season, but estimators a run higher (which would still be an excellent ERA)
4Robbie RaySEAWAS, CLEControl woes are back
5Justin VerlanderHOUMIN 
6Luis CastilloSEACLE 
7Nestor CortesNYY@OAK 
8Sonny GrayMINTEX, SF 
9Triston McKenzieCLE@SEAGetting better as the season progresses
10Shane BieberCLE@SEA 
11Alek ManoahTORLAA9 BB over last 16.2 IP
12Michael KopechCWS@KC, ARINice transition to starter, but need to be more pitch efficient
13Drew RasmussenTBLAA 
14Cristian JavierHOUBAL 
15Framber ValdezHOUMIN 
16Cole IrvinOAKMIA 
17Jeffrey SpringsTBLAA, @BOS 
18Brady SingerKCARIMaybe the Royals can develop good pitching
19Jameson TaillonNYY@OAK 
20George KirbySEAWASKeying the Mariners wild card run
21Aaron CivaleCLE@SD, @SEA 
22Jose UrquidyHOUBAL 
23Lance McCullers Jr.HOUBAL 
24Johnny CuetoCWSARI 
25Corey KluberTBLAA, @BOS 
26Logan GilbertSEACLE 
27Ross StriplingTOR@BOS, LAA 
28Shohei OhtaniLAA@TOR 
29Domingo GermanNYYNYM, @OAK 
30Cal QuantrillCLE@SD 
31Kevin GausmanTOR@BOS 
32Joe RyanMINSF 
33Luis GarciaHOUMIN 
34Patrick SandovalLAA@TB 
35Nathan EovaldiBOSTB 
36Frankie MontasNYYNYM 
37Nick PivettaBOSTB 
38Zach PlesacCLE@SEA 
39JP SearsOAKNYY 
40Michael WachaBOSTOR 
41Lance LynnCWS@BAL 
42Glenn OttoTEXDET 
43Jose SuarezLAA@TB 
44Dylan BundyMIN@HOU 
45Rich HillBOSTOR, TB 
46Zach LogueOAKMIA, NYY 
47Mitch WhiteTORLAA 
48Reid DetmersLAA@TORNice test for the improving southpaw
49Eduardo RodriguezDET@TEX 
50Tucker DavidsonLAA@TB, @TOR 
51Zack GreinkeKCSD 
52Austin VothBALCWS, @HOU 
53Daniel LynchKCCWS, SD 
54AL Reliever   
55Dean KremerBAL@HOU 
56Marco GonzalesSEACLE 
57Jose BerriosTOR@BOS 
58Kutter CrawfordBOSTORPixie dust has worn off
59Kohei AriharaTEXDET 
60Chris ArcherMIN@HOU 
61Matt ManningDETSF 
62Lucas GiolitoCWS@BALFavorable matchups, but so inconsistent. Your team, your call.
63Touki ToussaintLAA@TB 
64James KaprielianOAKNYY 
65Cole RagansTEX@MIN, DET 
66Martin PerezTEX@COL 
67Jordan LylesBALCWS 
68Ryan YarbroughTB@BOS 
69Jonathan HeasleyKCARI 
70Tyler AlexanderDET@TEX 
71Aaron SanchezMIN@HOU, SF 
72Kris BubicKCSD 
73Kyle BradishBAL@HOU 
74Spenser WatkinsBALCWS 
75Dane DunningTEX@COL 
76Adam OllerOAKMIA, NYY 
77Drew HutchisonDETSF, @TEX 

National League

RankPitcherTMOPPComment
1Max ScherzerNYM@NYY, COLBack in form
2Jacob deGromNYMCOL 
3Julio UriasLADMIL, @MIA 
4Max FriedATL@PIT 
5Jordan MontgomerySTL@CHC, ATL 
6Chris BassittNYMCOL 
7Aaron NolaPHICIN 
8Edward CabreraMIA@OAK, LADPrimed to be a difference-maker down the stretch
9Corbin BurnesMIL@LAD 
10Zac GallenARI@KC 
11Pablo LopezMIA@OAK, LAD 
12Yu DarvishSDCLE 
13Adam WainwrightSTL@CHC, ATL 
14Tyler AndersonLAD@MIA 
15Ranger SuarezPHICIN, PITTook a bit, but showing he can be a solid starter
16Tony GonsolinLADMILContinues to be both good and lucky
17Logan WebbSF@DET 
18Zack WheelerPHICIN 
19Joe MusgroveSD@KCGood spot to get out of rut
20Brandon WoodruffMILCHC 
21Eric LauerMIL@LAD, CHCHome runs continue to be an issue
22Kyle WrightATL@PIT 
23Carlos RodonSF@DET 
24Sandy AlcantaraMIALAD173 IP leads league. Only 27 pitchers compiled 173 IP last season.
25Jesus LuzardoMIA@OAK 
26Freddy PeraltaMILCHC 
27Andrew HeaneyLADMILRematch: Fanned 10 but allowed 3 HR in American Family Field last time
28Mike ClevingerSDCLE 
29Noah SyndergaardPHICIN, PIT 
30Dustin MayLAD@MIA 
31Spencer StriderATL@STL 
32Merrill KellyARI@CWS 
33Charlie MortonATL@STL 
34David PetersonNYMCOL 
35Justin SteeleCHC@MIL24 K with just 3 BB over prior 16.2 IP
36Miles MikolasSTL@CHC 
37Kyle GibsonPHIPIT 
38Blake SnellSD@KC34 K over last 22.2 IP, but still hasn't pitched into the 7th inning
39Marcus StromanCHCSTL 
40Kyle FreelandCOL@NYM 
41Tommy HenryARI@CWS 
42Jose QuintanaSTLATL 
43Nick LodoloCIN@PHI, @WASRebounded from shaky Field of Dreams game
44Sean ManaeaSD@KC 
45Roansy ContrerasPITATL 
46Josiah GrayWASCIN 
47Jake OdorizziATL@PIT, @STL 
48Madison BumgarnerARI@CWS 
49Aaron AshbyMIL@LAD 
50Taijuan WalkerNYM@NYY 
51Drew SmylyCHCSTL, @MIL 
52Alex WoodSF@MIN 
53NL Reliever   
54Zach DaviesARI@KC 
55Graham AshcraftCIN@PHI 
56JT BrubakerPITATL 
57Adrian SampsonCHCSTL, @MIL 
58Anibal SanchezWAS@SEA 
59Ryan FeltnerCOL@NYM 
60Alex CobbSF@MIN 
61Luis CessaCIN@PHI, @WAS 
62Chad KuhlCOL@NYM 
63Erick FeddeWAS@SEA 
64Hayden Wesneski,CHCSTL 
65German MarquezCOLTEX, @NYM 
66Jakob JunisSF@MIN 
67Paolo EspinoWASCIN 
68Mitch KellerPITATL 
69Matthew LiberatoreSTL@CHC 
70Justin DunnCIN@PHI 
71Caleb KilianCHCSTL 
72Dakota HudsonSTL@CHC 
73Zach ThompsonPIT@PHI 
74Mike MinorCIN@WAS 
75Bryse WilsonPIT@PHI 
76Tyler BeedePIT@PHI 
77Patrick CorbinWASCIN 
78Jose UrenaCOLTEX 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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