Top 400 MLB Prospect Rankings Updated: Discover Rising Stars!

The RotoWire Top 400 Prospect Rankings, ETAs and team top 20s are fully updated! The dynasty rankings should be fully updated in the middle of next week.

Per usual, here's the RotoWire Prospect Podcast Mailbag episode, and then the written version plus another 25 questions that I didn't have time for on the podcast:

Jason Volat: Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Leo De Vries (SD) and Jesus Made (MIL)…. I heard you state on Farm Friday (on Sirius/XM) that Walcott has more Power and De Vries more Hit and you get if someone prefers De Vries. How does Made compare to Walcott and De Vries tool wise? Would you say all three within the same Tier? Floor vs. Ceiling?

I think Walcott, De Vries and Made belonged back-to-back-to-back on this update, but I didn't consider putting Made higher than No. 4, so I think there's a slight tier between De Vries at No. 3 and Made at No. 4. It's really about the sample and amount of success against full-season pitching -- Walcott and De Vries have proven much more than Made and Made hasn't been so dominant at Single-A to make up for that. I think De Vries has the highest floor of the three and Walcott has a higher ceiling than De Vries due to an edge in raw power and my belief that Walcott will steal more bases in the majors. De Vries projects to have a better hit tool and a higher OBP than Walcott, but it's not definitive.

Matthew King: What players would you say are the MLB comps for what you expect Jesus Made (MIL) and Leo De Vries (SD) to be in their primes?

Very loosely, I'd say the ceiling comp on Made is 90 percent of Ronald Acuna on the left side of the infield and the ceiling comp on De Vries is middle infielder Juan Soto with a bit more speed and not as elite of a hit tool -- the idea being that De Vries' AVG/OBP could be the category he provides the most value in, like with Soto. (I've also compared Sebastian Walcott to Fernando Tatis). These are very, very loose comps, just because it's so hard to come up with perfect comps for elite talents, but it's probably more helpful than not providing any comp. 

Nevsim: Can you give an outline of where tiers could be drawn within at least the top 100 or so prospects?

TIER ONE: 1-3 (Roman Anthony to Leo De Vries) 

TIER TWO: 4-10 (Jesus Made to Chase Burns) 

TIER THREE: 11-22 (Josue De Paula to Agustin Ramirez) 

TIER FOUR: 23-49 (Luke Keaschall to Theo Gillen)

TIER FIVE: 50-71 (Coby Mayo to Caleb Bonemer)

TIER SIX: 72-119 (Alejandro Rosario to Brandon Sproat)

Hamiltron: At 20 in AAA, what Samuel Basallo (BAL) is doing is impressive. Does he have a chance to unseat Adley Rutschman as the starting catcher? What does a peak season for Basallo look like? 

This is certainly a wrinkle I hadn't considered until very recently. I just don't see enough red flags under the hood for Rutschman to think the Orioles would do anything that drastic. He has a .268 xBA, .361 xwOBA, .469 xSLG and his approach metrics are all in line with his career norms, so I think he's just a buy-low. As to Basallo, just because Rustchman is due to turn things around doesn't mean Basallo's playing time outlook hasn't improved this season. Guys like Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo who used to be ahead of Basallo on the organizational depth chart have failed to take jobs and run with them, and Ryan Mountcastle has underperformed, so they should be able to find 4-5 starts per week for Basallo at a combination of catcher and DH when they're ready to start his clock. I think Mountcastle will turn it a round, but if he doesn't turn it around significantly, he could be a non-tender candidate in the offseason, which would allow Basallo to play every day in 2026.

A peak Basallo season could look like: .265 AVG, .385 OBP, 30-35 HR, 0 SB

FreakyFatGuy: Are the rankings based on each player's ceiling or more about proximity and potential to make an impact? Should I assume someone ranked 15 has more talent and ceiling than someone ranked 50, or just that he's playing better currently?

It's not as formulaic as that. I'm factoring in ceiling and proximity for every player and trying to slot them as best I can in the order I would prefer to roster them in a healthy, competitive dynasty league. 

It's possible someone ranked 50 could have more talent and/or a higher ceiling than someone ranked 15. For instance, I could credibly argue that Mike Sirota (LAD), Rainiel Rodriguez (STL), Brailer Guerrero (TB) and Theo Gillen (TB), who are ranked in the 40-49 range, have higher ceilings than 15th-ranked prospect Matt Shaw, but obviously Shaw is much, much, much safer than those four prospects and he's up and producing in the majors. These aren't ceiling rankings or proximity rankings, they're meant to factor in all aspects of a prospect's dynasty value.

Piquing Prospects: Which players do you see as the biggest movers/players that you feel you're planting your flag on with your ranking?

I don't think the biggest movers are the same as the guys you could say I'm "planting my flag on", even though I don't really set out to plant my flag on guys, per say. The biggest movers are Luis Pena (MIL) and Mike Sirota (LAD), but they moved so much, in part, because I was too low on them on the last update, particularly with Pena. 

I've essentially been planting my flag on Jac Caglianone (KC) since the March 20 update when I ranked him 11th overall, and I think you could say I'm planting my flag on Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) by ranking him 45th on this update before he had played in a full-season league.

Coco: Wow Luis Pena (MIL) at No. 9! I can only assume this means you think he has the ability to get to 20 HR power? How far is the gap between him and Jesus Made (MIL)? Is it unreasonable to think Pena could pass Made by end of season? Would love to hear you compare and contrast the two MIL studs...

Kevin Luo: Can you recall the last time a player has risen like Luis Pena (MIL) for you? I believe he was outside the top 200 in the last update and now he's top 10. And do you think he can pass Jesus Made (MIL)?

Yeah, I went from being agnostic on Pena's power potential and open to the idea that he could fail to hit for much power to fully buying that he has 20-homer upside based on what he's done this year at Single-A. 

Made's DSL performance, and the explosiveness in his swing are the two separating factors at this stage between Made and Pena, but if I've got one guy ranked fourth and the other ranked ninth in May, then it's certainly possible the order could be flipped by the end of the year. I still see Made as having significantly more game power at their peaks (say 35-HR to 20-HR), although I think Pena will steal more bases.

I don't recall ever  bumping a guy from outside the top 200 to inside the top 10, although this was the perfect confluence of factors (me being too low on Pena to begin with, him getting a very aggressive assignment and crushing it). That said, Mike Sirota (LAD) rose more total spots (344) on this update than Pena (218).

JJ: Luis Pena (MIL) over Josue De Paula (LAD), what were the variables that made Pena more valued?

One clear variable is path to playing time. De Paula is one of four Dodgers outfielders in the top 40 and Shohei Ohtani is the big-league DH, whereas Pena is a good up-the-middle defender on a cheap team, so I'm much more confident Pena will play when he deserves to. Pena should also steal ~30 more bases per year than De Paula while hitting for a higher average. I'd give De Paula the edge in power, and maybe the slight edge in OBP. So if De Paula got traded, I'd probably bump him ahead of Pena.

Hamiltron: What's Braden Montgomery's (CHW) path to The Show? Can he make it this year? What kind of player do you think he'll be?

He's low enough in the minors that the White Sox won't have any pressure to bring him up before late August, at which point they can still maintain his rookie eligibility heading into 2026 and contend for a prospect promotion incentive pick. Even the late-August scenario would require Montgomery to absolutely mash over the next three months, so a more likely timetable is that we don't see him this year and he gets a chance to compete for a spot in spring training next year.

Montgomery has an impressive array of tools, but we'll learn a lot more about the strength of his approach and hit tool once he gets bumped to an age-appropriate level at Double-A. I wouldn't rule out Montgomery being a star-caliber right fielder who goes 30-HR/10-SB every year with a high OBP, but again, we're watching him beat up on lesser competition right now, so it's possible some warts will show this summer.

Beerbot: Could you give us a few words regarding Eduardo Quintero (LAD) and his big jump up to 37?

Keith: Is Eduardo Quintero (LAD) the type of player you see having top 15 potential before season's end?

Yeah, he has that type of upside. A center fielder hitting for significant power (.252 ISO, eight HR) while attempting 27 steals in 38 games is pretty exciting. Quintero is repeating Single-A and turns 20 in September, so I'd need to see him keep up this level of production after a bump to High-A for him to push for top 15. 

Bob May: How high is Mike Sirota's (LAD) ceiling? And how do you see this "glut" of great Dodgers OF prospects panning out over time? Does the fact that there are so many with a similar timeline slightly lower the value of all of them?

Eddy Almaguer: Digging the love for both Mike Sirota (LAD) and Jack Perkins (ATH). What kind of outcomes are you realistically expecting for each?

The first thing that jumped out to me about watching Sirota in pro ball for the first time this year was his bat speed. He is able to barrel balls out to all fields. He also has a 38.7 percent groundball rate and a 3.1 percent infield-flyball rate this year, so his quality of contact is elite right now. There's going to be some swing and miss when he gets to Double-A and Triple-A -- there's already some at High-A -- but there's huge power here and he's a barely put his plus speed to use on the bases since he's been slugging so frequently. Given that all we've got to go on in terms of a pro sample for Sirota is these 33 games he's played in 2025 at Single-A and High-A, he could easily be a huge faller on the next update, I just felt like if I had Sirota at this moment in time, I'd be clutching him tight because high-end outcomes appear to be in play. He could get exposed at Double-A, but he could also keep mashing and get to Triple-A sometime in the second half. The range of outcomes is vast, but 30-plus HR, 15-plus SB with a high OBP is what I'd be dreaming on.

The glut of great Dodgers outfield prospects is arguably the biggest knock on Sirota, and hopefully at least one of these guys gets dealt at this year's deadline. The problem is, the Dodgers have so few areas of need, and they could conceivably trade for a significant piece without including one of Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Eduardo Quintero and Sirota.

Paul Max: What can you tell us about Jack Perkins (ATH) -- is he a high ceiling guy or back-end type of SP?

Danny J: Jack Perkins (ATH) is playing perky. How high can he rise? You like him a lot more than his teammate Gunnar Hoglund?

Perkins is a high-ceiling guy for me. He's got a sturdy frame and a monster fastball/slider combo -- his mid-90s fastball has a ton of run -- and he's carving up the Pacific Coast League right now (21:4 K:BB in 15.2 IP over his last three starts). The A's have up-arrow prospects on both sides of the ball, and Perkins is my favorite of their pitchers, in part because he's had success in the PCL. The biggest knocks on Perkins for me are that his career-high in innings is 107.2 in 2023 (he has been over 78 innings three straight years from 2022-24) and the uncertain home-field aspect of projecting A's pitchers. 

I like Perkins (and Gage Jump, Luis Morales) a lot more than Hoglund, who is much more of a back-end type.

Keith: What kind of upside would you give Gage Jump (ATH)? 

My No. 5 ranked left-handed pitching prospect behind Quinn Mathews (STIL), Thomas White (MIA), Hagen Smith (CHW), Noah Schultz (CHW), Jump is good enough to pass some or all those guys on the next update if he keeps this up. 

Like with Perkins, I think Jump has No. 2 starter upside in real life, which typically translates to an SP3 in fantasy. Jump has great stuff, but it's his strike throwing that has jumped out (5.2 BB%).

Lewis Therin: I saw Austin Overn (BAL) dropped out of your latest top-400 prospects, was expecting/hoping he'd be a big riser. Worth holding in a league that rosters like 200-250 prospects?

I very rarely do this, but I added Overn back to the bottom of the rankings Saturday. Obviously I"m not as high on him as some, given that I thought there was a case for bumping him off the rankings, but he's got exciting enough tools and athleticism that I thought it was an error in hindsight to take him off. He's only been focusing solely on baseball for a couple years, and it shows (68.3 Contact%, 13.4 SwStr%, 34.2 IFFB%) as a 22-year-old at High-A, but that rawness as a hitter can be somewhat forgiven when factoring in context.

Prospect Vibe Check: I'm shocked that Bubba Chandler (PIT) isn't SP Prospect 1 despite his nasty performance and proximity that has him ahead of Chase Burns (CIN). Could you break down that trio?

Well, I would still bet on Chandler to beat Burns to the majors this year, but I think it's a 60/40 type of proposition at this point. Chandler has walked 13 batters in his last 18.1 innings (four starts), so he's regressed a bit from a performance standpoint while Burns has walked just three batters in his last six starts (29 innings). Burns vs. Chandler from a stuff standpoint is a discussion, but I'd give Burns the edge there too, and while he has a worse home park, I think the Reds are more likely to get the most out of Burns than the Pirates are to get the most out of Chandler. 

You didn't mention Andrew Painter (PHI) by name, but he makes up that trio pitchers in the top 30. Painter is knocking off a little rust at Triple-A, but pre-surgery Painter was even better than current Burns, so those two could be flipped if you like, but I think Chandler had to be third on this update.

John Snider: I'm interested in hearing your rationale why you believe that Chase Burns (CIN) and Bryce Eldridge (SF) are 2025 ETA. Do you think they make a difference in the 2nd half?

I'm already stashing Burns in the 16-team RotoWire Steak League, as I think he could be up in the majors after 4-to-6 more starts in the upper levels of the minors. It doesn't make any sense to keep a guy with his stuff and performance in the minors all season. He could hit a snag at Triple-A or get injured, but if he just stays on this path he'll be up before the end of July. 

Eldridge is more of a borderline call on the ETA -- I'm expecting him to get the call in late-August to preserve his rookie status for next year, but if he gets a minor injury or struggles a little at Triple-A, that'd push Eldridge to 2026.

Luke Anderson: Do you have any guidance/rules you follow for when you should move on from a prospect? Dynasty baseball is a game of patience but you also don't want to miss out on pop-up prospects that surface. How do you determine when to wait things out vs. when to move on from a prospect?

One mantra I try to consider is to not trade/cut anyone unless I'm pretty sure what they're going to be or not be. So if it's a flawed hitter you're pretty sure is going to not hit for AVG/OBP or not hit for much power, that's someone I'd be more willing to cut loose than if it's just a young, struggling hitter who still has plenty of time to put it all together.

Injured non-elite pitchers or older pitchers with really bad control are easy to cut loose, and generally I'm more willing to churn my pitcher spots for the flavor of the week than I am with hitters. For instance, I've been much quicker to write off a Daniel Espino (CLE) type than some, just because you're not only at risk of them never being healthy, but you're wasting opportunities to churn that spot in the 12-18 month stretches where the player isn't pitching. When it's a first-time Tommy John surgery for a pitcher you like, you should try to be patient as long as possible, but I threw back Jose Corniell (TEX), who I liked a lot pre-surgery, recently in a league I held him in over the winter just because there were enough pop-up guys I liked that I didn't want to sit on my hands.

I also think you should try to be as patient as you can with someone you use a top 2-3 round FYPD pick on, just because you only get so many shots at those types of talents. 

Travis Pastore: Seems like there are a lot of big risers in this update like Luis Pena (MIL), Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI). Is it because they're really that good or is it a weak prospect crop at the moment? Always curious on what big risers are doing to catch your attention...

I think it's a pretty strong prospect crop at the moment because we've had so many fresh faces breaking out and not a ton of graduations. The main knock is that the strength of the prospect crop is in young position players who aren't particularly close to the majors. Pena has a Trea Turner type of ceiling. Nimmala could be a 30-homer shortstop who hits for a good average. Waldschmidt could be Seiya Suzuki 2.0. These are good prospects.

Camposite: What do you think the ceilings are for Reds prospects Sal Stewart and Cam Collier?

Cam Collier's got the higher ceiling. He came on strong last year, showcasing what I think is an elite four-category ceiling, especially when factoring in his future home park. Stewart has a really high five-category floor and a sneaky high ceiling, but while Collier could flirt with 40 homers at peak, I think Stewart would max out around 30 HR, with the possibility he just never sacrifices any of his hit tool and is just a 20-homer guy who also chips in some steals.

Nevsim: Are there any concerns about George Lombard (NYY) that are keeping him outside of the top 25 given his approach and age/level? Is his ceiling lower than the other guys around his age who are ranked higher, or is it more a matter of being in a large tier where his ranking is interchangeable with higher ranked guys?

Keith: George Lombard (NYY) got a double arrow move up what did he show you to start this year?

Lombard is really tough to rank, as he's hit just one home run in 71 games above Single-A, yet he's been fantastic in every other aspect of the game while being incredibly young for his levels. So if we compare Lombard with Eduardo Quintero (LAD), who's one spot behind, they're about the same age (Lombard is 15 weeks older) yet Lombard is two levels higher in the minors and has a clearer path to an everyday job while Quintero's traditional stats look much more the part of a top 40 prospect. I see a lot of Jordan Lawlar whenever Lombard takes an A swing and connects, and it's not an issue of Lombard hitting way too many groundballs, so I think there's 20-plus homer upside in there, but that doesn't mean he'll actualize anytime soon.

Neil Mills: How would you compare these three big up-arrow shortstops' outlook and upside: Arjun Nimmala (TOR), Cooper Pratt (MIL) and George Lombard (NYY)

Nimmala is the easist to project -- No. 3 hitting 30-homer shortstop with less SB upside than the typical shortstop.

Pratt and Lombard are more similar in that they've been showing off their hit tools and speed and shortstop defense while the game power lags behind. I've got Pratt ahead because I think he's closer to having everything click and I think there's a better chance of him really breaking out as a top-10 prospect this summer. 

Gabriel Garcia: Brailer Guerrero (TB) has been great when healthy. He currently has more SB than HR, do you expect his speed to continue to be a part of his fantasy appeal or are we banking on a four-category masher long term?

Guerrero is a really exciting young power prospect, and while it's notable that he is running this year, I'm not yet expecting that to be part of the appeal when he's a major leaguer. I also wouldn't say I'm "banking" on him being a four-category masher, but if I'm rostering him that's what I'm dreaming on. We're still not out of the woods with regards to his durability issues, as it's just been 23 games, but like you said, when he's played, he's been really productive.

Pain: Thoughts on Travis Sykora (WAS)? Does he just need to show it against better competition before he joins the true top tier of pitching prospects?

He's the best pitching prospect that I don't expect to pitch in the majors this season. If I were just doing a ceiling ranking of pitching prospects, he'd have a case to be top three, but he's also made just one start above Single-A and I strongly believe in factoring in proximity to pitching prospect rankings. He could have Tommy John surgery before getting to Double-A. His mechanics could get out of whack over the offseason one year. There's all kinds of things that can go wrong for a hard-throwing, 6-foot-6, 21-year-old pitching prospect in the one to two years remaining in his minor-league development, and I try to factor in those potential pitfalls. 

Parker: What do you think the odds are that Grant Taylor pitches as a starter in 2026 for the White Sox?

I'll say 60 percent. He's obviously been fantastic as a reliever at Double-A, and it's possible he ends up in the bullpen long term, but I'd be surprised if a rebuilding team like the White Sox didn't exhaust efforts to develop Taylor as a starter. The 40 percent chance he doesn't make a start in the big leagues next year is accounting for the chance of injury or poor performance getting in the way.

I'll add that Peyton Pallette (CHW) is now one of the elite relief pitching prospects out there and I think he will be getting saves for the White Sox sometime next year.

Finstick: I operate under the idea that Colt Emerson (SEA) wont be a top tier player unless he develops serious power since he won't be much of a SB contributor. What do you make of the conflicting results of his 115 max exit velocity + ELITE Spring Training Bat Speed vs. his real-life stats + his RotoWire HH% being a career low?

DiatomaceousChris: Is it time to drop Colt Emerson (SEA) in a shallower dynasty league? Spring training data had him with elite bat speed and his bat to ball and eye are still great so it feels hard to give up on his upside...

I guess I've never seen Emerson as a big-time upside prospect but more of a high floor prospect. He's not a burner and he'll probably be playing in Seattle, so I'd be hoping for Ian Happ-esque power/speed production. His 57 percent groundball rate this year is the biggest wart in his profile, but he's still young enough to dream on a breakout if he can tweak his swing. I think valuing him as a borderline top-50 prospect who is more floor than ceiling is the way to go right now.

Danny J: Felnin Celesten is feeling it with a .300 average and good OBP. Why the double downs?

Patrick Gilbert: What do you need to see from Felnin Celesten (SEA) to start moving up the top 400?

He's got an OPS under .600 over his last 17 games or so and hasn't homered since April 23, which includes a two-week injury absence. Given the time Celesten has missed already in his career, he's not "young for the level", so my expectation was for him to be more productive, and it's a tip of the cap to his raw tools and pedigree that he remained in the top 100.

Danny J: If Joe Boyle (TB) were eligible for your list, where would he boil up to in the rankings?

Back of the top 100. 

Keith: Nolan McLean (NYM) seems to have really found a groove now, do you have a good comp for him? 

I don't have a great McLean comp, but I love that he's gone five-plus innings in eight straight starts. My expectation is for him to be a No. 3 starter who's slightly more valuable than that in fantasy due to the home park, defense and run support.

FantasyBaseballGuy: What do you prefer about Nolan McLean (NYM) that puts him higher on your list than Jonah Tong (NYM)?

McLean has a better body/frame and he's proven himself at Triple-A. I expect Tong will have success at Triple-A too, but guys like Brandon Sproat this year and Blade Tidwell last year fell completely flat in their first tours of the International League, so I do think it's notable that McLean has held his own and kept the ball on the ground. That said, I've got no problem with anyone prefering Tong over McLean.

Cody Martin: Why the double down on Cole Carrigg (COL)? 

He seems to have sacrificed his hit tool (15.9 SwStr%, 69.2 Contact%), which was a key part of the profile for me, for more power, although lately he might be trying to reverse that trend. Ideally Carrigg is a guy who's striking out around 20 percent of the time and just letting the power come naturally while stealing a bunch of bases. I may push him back up on the next update if the strikeout rate keeps falling. 

Keith: Can you talk about what you have seen from Tyson Lewis (CIN) -- hard to get good information whiles he's at the complex...

He reportedly had a 119 mph exit velocity and several other exit velocities north of 110 mph in his first few games in the complex league. My guest on last week's podcast, Alex Jensen, suggested that Lewis is swinging too hard right now and the hit tool could look more questionable after a bump to full-season ball, where classmates Caleb Bonemer (CHW) and Luke Dickerson (WAS) are already having success. Lewis has the highest ceiling of the three (he's also a great runner) and arguably the lowest floor.

Keith: Brock Wilken (MIL) got a nice boost in the update what metrics do you like from him?

My five favorite Wilken metrics: 0.83 BB/K, 167 wRC+, .284 ISO, 36.3 GB%, 8.5 SwStr%

Prospect Vibe Check: The drops on Denzel Clarke (ATH) and Yolfran Castillo (TEX) are both surprising. Clarke has an 889 OPS in AAA, while Castillo's over .900. Is it a question of power output from both?

Got a couple on Clarke, but with Castillo, it's the lack of power. He's age-appropriate for the ACL and even saw time there last year, and it's a very easy league to hit for power in, so while there's plenty of time for him, he's not advancing at the rate I hoped. Castillo also isn't a burner and will only get bigger/slower in the coming years, so the power has to come eventually for him to be a starting fantasy shortstop.

ChzBeef: How has this spring changed your opinion of Denzel Clarke (ATH)? I've been pretty impressed at the walk and K rates in his first look at AAA, have to imagine the power shows up sooner than later...

With Clarke, I may have lowered him a little too much, but I had a feeling of being a sucker for buying into what he did in the Arizona Fall League. Usually I don't fall for the older Jakob Marsee types who do well in the AFL, so I'm kicking myself a little for that. He had a 68.1 percent groundball rate at Triple-A and so far three of his four MLB batted ball events have been groundballs. Clarke's center field defense and place on the 40-man roster is what got him the call, but Colby Thomas and Henry Bolte have had much more promising seasons so far among upper-level A's outfielders, so long term, Clarke is going to have to fix his swing to play.

Prospect Vibe Check: The Church of Henry Bolte (ATH) welcome all James. I'm glad you've joined us. The drop on Jarlin Susana (WAS) surprised me despite the positive prognosis on his injury. Did he plummet just on the back of you believing it was a TJS precursor? If so, why didn't Alejandro Rosario (TEX) drop too?

Speaking of Bolte, I'm not 100 percent sold obviously, but his tools have always been exciting and his 26.6 percent strikeout rate is easily the lowest of his career. 

With Susana, I definitely don't buy the idea that we're out of the woods with his elbow. Teams downplay this type of thing all the time, only for it to turn into Tommy John surgery a couple months later. He's a prime TJS candidate given how hard he throws and the fact he's never had it, and he had a 16.4 percent walk rate before the injury, so performance would have knocked him down even if he never got hurt. I like Rosario a lot more as a healthy pitcher, and he did drop when he got TJS -- he got as high as 30th overall pre-injury and the highest Susana has climbed is 69th. Rosario has had the surgery and I know his timetable and the rate of return and I'm more confident that I'll view him as a no-doubt starting pitcher at the start of next season.

St. Louis Perfectos: Will Colby Thomas (ATH) get a chance and make an impact this year? 

I think he'll get a shot eventually this summer, since this seems to be kind of an evaluation year for the A's. Since he's not on the 40-man roster and isn't a center fielder, he got passed over when Denzel Clarke got the call.

Kevin Luo: I know you've been higher on Brady House (WAS) in the past -- still a believer? He's probably playing the best he's ever played and close to the majors...

Yeah, dropping his O-Swing% from 39.9 percent last year to 31.3 percent this year is pretty notable. There's always going to be some swing and miss there, but obviously the power and proximity is alluring. He's not going to run, even on the Nationals, and I don't think he'll ever hit for a super high average, but he could be a .250 hitter with 25 homers for a nice three to four year run in his mid-20s. 

Kevin Luo: Thoughts on Franklin Arias (BOS)? Seems to be getting to some power in High-A and the hit tool is great...

Yeah, he's hitting .474 with three extra-base hits and two steals in four games since the update, so he's probably a little too low. I'm iffy on the eventual game power just because the hard-hit data isn't great, but like you said, he's got the hit tool, so he could max out everything he's got in the power department. 

Matthew King: C.J. Kayfus (CLE) has nice minor-league numbers and isn't far from promotion to MLB. Why is he ranked just 147th and what kind of stat line do you think he can post in MLB?

I think Kayfus is a good sell-high if you can find someone who really buys into the stat line, as there may not be a legit prospect with a more "over their head" stat line than Kayfus right now. There's plenty to like, and I think he'll play on the strong side of a platoon for a good four to six years in his mid-to-late 20s/early-30s, but he's got a 67.9 percent contact rate this year as a smaller hit-over-power first baseman (the hard-hit, exit velocity data portends 20-homer power). Everyone knows that a .427 BABIP means the player has been lucky, but I don't think people appreciate just how much that inflates an overall slash line.

Chief Eth: Who are some sell high prospects who have started hot/are getting a lot of helium that you don't buy as being real (or at least not living up to the hype)?

The aforementioned Franklin Arias (BOS) and C.J. Kayfus (CLE) fit this bill, as does Cole Young (SEA) -- I just think he's got a low ceiling due to his fringe-average raw power and awful home park. I'd trade Mick Abel (PHI) if someone really wanted him, and I don't think the market has caught up to how mediocre Felnin Celesten (SEA) has been this year. Eduardo Tait (PHI) and Moises Ballesteros (CHC) are a couple others (Tait's ETA, Ballesteros' defensive issues), and I'd trade any high-demand pitching prospect in the right deal.

St. Louis Perfectos: Hold Demetrio Crisantes (ARI) or drop him to chase upside elsewhere in leagues with 150-250 prospects? 

I'd churn that spot until you land on someone you like.

St. Louis Perfectos: What is Tre' Morgan's (TB) power and fantasy upside?

This is a very tough question to answer because Morgan is such an oddity from a tools stanpoint. A Gold-Glove-caliber first baseman with a potential 70-grade hit tool and 30-grade power. He's a decent athlete, so even though he hasn't stolen any bases this year, I could see him chipping in 5-15 steals in any given full season. As a Ray with a platoon split, he'll likely sit against lefties, so that probably prevents him from matching Yandy Diaz's peak R+RBI output. So for Morgan's fantasy upside, I'll say .290 hitter who taps into 12-15 homer power with 5-15 steals, and the R+RBI that come with being a platoon bat. The fact he's such a good defender is what has him ranked where he is, because I think you can feel more confident in the playing time.

Toolsy: Druw Jones (ARI), is he worth hanging onto or is it time to move on?

I coined the term 95 Percenter on the podcast recently, which applies to all hitting prospects whose groundball percentage and opposite-field percentage add up to 95 or more. Jones has a 63.5 percent groundball rate and a 40.9 percent opposite-field rate, so he's an easy 95 Percenter, and it's not surprising to see him sitting at zero home runs on the season. Now, he's really good at everything besides hitting -- his center-field defense and speed should get him to the majors -- but I'd be OK moving on if there's someone you're itching to add.

Notorius D.A.N.: Is the Hunter Barco (PIT) drop due mostly to health concerns?

Chuck: Any reason for the pessimism on Hunter Barco (PIT) despite a phenomenal start to the year?

I may have lowered him too much since multiple people asked about him, but yes, Barco's fall was strictly due to his shoulder strain. Shoulders are pretty scary and Barco has already had a Tommy John surgery. I like the player when healthy though, so if he's back sooner than I expect and looks no worse for wear I'll bump him back up on the next update.

Matthew King: Why so low on Athletics pitcher Wei-En Lin?

I don't think his stuff is that good (89-94 mph fastball), similarly to Sean Linan (LAD) who was added on this update. Lefties with good command and good changeups typically put up ridiculous numbers in the lower levels before coming back to earth at Double-A or Triple-A.

Cody Martin: Joshua Baez (STL) has been having a good year statistically, and I'm surprised to not see him here...

I did consider adding Baez, and you can value him as a back-half of the top 400 guy. I just wanted to wait and see how he does at Double-A since he's old for High-A and repeating the level. I don't love that he's hitting more balls to the opposite field than the pull side, but I do love that he's running wild on the bases.

Cody Martin: Lonnie White (PIT) just miss, or not considered?

Considered, but not strongly considered due to the fact he's got a 34.8 percent strikeout rate while repeating High-A.