The Z Files: A Balancing Act

Several weeks ago, friend and colleague Ryan Broomfield from Baseball HQ posted the following:

The Corbin Carroll/Freddie Freeman pairing was the early leader, though the Vladimir Guerrero/Yordan Alvarez garnered some late love. Our own Erik Halterman was one of the first to recognize the benefits of Guerrero and Alvarez but indicated he probably wouldn't target the pair.

I was the first to declare my preference for the last duo. An interesting discussion then ensued, revolving around best players available versus roster build.

The knock against Guerrero and Alvarez is the lack of steals, whereby the other two provide a balance. Even so, I'll take the boppers. I see that combination as much safer. Carroll appears to have righted the ship, but Freeman is a year older and may not be the 160-games a season rock anymore. Rodriguez needs to prove he's still a first-round talent while Harper's 145 games played last season were his highest since 2019. 

Don't get me wrong, they're all elite. My rankings in the RotoWire Roundtable Rankings: 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top-300, January Update are:

• Alvarez No. 12
• Guerrero No. 14
• Rodriguez No. 15
• Carroll No. 16
• Harper No. 25
• Freeman No. 26

After posting in the thread, I "did the math" and pegged Vlad and Yordan at $64 combined earnings compared to $59 for JRod/Bryce with Carroll/Freeman returning $56.

Erik then posed an interesting question: 

If you could put a dollar value on "staying flexible after two rounds," what do you think it would be, roughly? Less than $5, clearly, but are we talking a buck or two or more like 25 cents? Is that calculable?

My reply:

Projections and earnings aren't accurate enough to put a dollar amount. The reason for the discrepancy is risk (performance or injury) which gets factored into the earnings. I didn't do the math beforehand; I saw each pair and said Vlad/Yordan are safer, and I can make it work.

This exchange prompted many to indicate they much prefer to start with the power/speed combination than chase steals. To be honest, so would I. However, that wasn't the question. Ryan wanted to know which pair was preferred, and of the three, Guerrero and Alvarez were my runaway choice.

Other than not wanting to leave stats on the table, I'm comfortable chasing steals in 2025 drafts. Everyone views the inventory and tiers differently, but I see a deep tier of middle infielders and another with a bunch of outfielders offering a lot of steals. If you're going to chase, it helps if there is an extended group from which to choose.

MIDDLE INFIELDERS

Each of the following is projected for at least 20 steals with an ADP outside of the top 150.

I don't know where, but Durbin will make my top 300 in the next roundtable update.

It's fair to question the Hoerner and Garcia ranks. I'm more confident about Hoerner; his job is safer. Every update, I re-evaluate Hoerner and remain confident in my expectation:

Maybe I'm aggressive with playing time, but even if I cut back 50 PA, I'm still way ahead of the field. Of course, I'm not drafting Hoerner in Round 4, but in a vacuum, that's where his production lands.

This isn't supposed to be a piece on Hoerner; he's just an example why I'm good starting with a big power base. There are several other middlemen with speed in case I'm sniped playing ADP chicken.

OUTFIELDERS

Same specs, at least 20 swipes, ADP over 150.

There are 30 total players from the two groups. Some of these guys offer more than steals, so they'll be desired by others in the room, but I'm confident there are bags to be had later in the draft.

Circling back to the initial premise of preferring a power/speed foundation, what are the chances you stay perfectly balanced throughout the draft? Granted, one needs more homers than steals, but the implication is that balanced drafters try to stay balanced throughout the snake. What happens if the top players on your board are all bashers, or all speedsters? Do you pass on the "more valuable" player to stay balanced?

I want stats. This doesn't mean 500 homers and 50 steals: the spread needs to be functional. However, leaving stats on the table to force balance doesn't make sense. Not only can you collect what you need in later rounds. but you have 27 weeks to manage the categories.

Admittedly, the ideal scenario when drafting is that the best players available will provide a balanced base. That said, I'm less inclined to follow my old mantra of "Choose, don't chase." Especially as the pool is replete with late steals, at least in my estimation, I'm more inclined to lock in top producers early and balance later.