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The Seattle Mariners face off against the Houston Astros today in the second game of a three-game series between these two division rivals. The Mariners had a 10-game lead in the division less than a month ago, and they have already blown that lead after the loss to the Astros yesterday.
The Astros and Mariners are now tied at the top of the AL West with the Astros having a slightly better win percentage to take over first place at 51-46 on the season. They are a brutal 17-25 against teams with winning records this season but a lot of those losses came very early in the season.
The Mariners have now lost four straight games and they are 52-47 on the season. They are 25-27 against teams with winning records this season, so they have played a lot more competition than the Astros. They are 30-19 at home this season while the Astros are just 23-25 on the road this season. This is the third series between these teams this season and the Mariners won each of the first two. They are 5-3 against the Astros this season and 3-2 at home against the Astros.
George Kirby is starting for the Mariners today and he has been very good this season going 7-7 with a 3.29 ERA. He has a 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts and he has already faced the Astros twice this season pitching a quality start in both games. He allowed one run in six innings pitched with no walks and three strikeouts the first time he faced them, then allowed just one run in six innings pitched with no walks and eight strikeouts against them the second time he faced them.
Even if you go back to last season, he still dominated the Astros with two quality starts and 12.2 total innings pitched and just one run allowed. He is exactly who the Mariners want on the mound in this situation.
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Framber Valdez is getting the start for the Astros today and he has been solid lately going 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA in his last seven starts. He is 8-5 with a 3.66 ERA this season. He has been a lot more hit or miss this season though, with a lot more blowup starts than we are used to with him. He is also slightly worse on the road with a 3.97 ERA while Kirby is 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA at home this season.
Valdez has also faced the Mariners twice this season and he struggled in his first outing allowing five runs in 5.1 innings pitched at home. He pitched better in his road start against the Mariners allowing three runs in six innings pitched, but he also walked three batters and struck out just four batters. He faced the Mariners three times last season and had one quality start at home. He also allowed six runs in five innings pitched and three runs in four innings pitched in his other two starts against the Mariners last year.
The Mariners really haven't been hitting anyone well this season but they do hit lefties better than they do righties, and they have hit lefties well in the past month or so. The Astros bats had been hot going into the break and on this run to the top of the AL West, but we saw how they were unable to add on yesterday and even one of their runs was aided by an error.
The Astros and Mariners have nearly identical bullpens as they are ranked right next to each other at 10th and 11th in bullpen ERA this season, so I think that is pretty much a wash overall. I don't think the Astros sweep this series on the road, and if the Mariners win a game this series, I think it is most likely to be this game. I also think it is very telling with how big of favorites the Mariners are even with how poorly they have been playing lately.
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Mariners ML -130 vs. Astros (DK)
