This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, May 10
YTD 51-61-1
Prior article 2-1 (+2.00 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago Cubs 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
This is a perfect matchup for an UNDER as both starting pitchers are throwing great and both offenses are struggling. The Pirates are dead last against right-handed pitching since April 21 with a woeful 48 wRC+. The Cubs have a 88 wRC+ in the same split.
Javier Assad has gone UNDER his earned runs totals in all seven starts and the UNDER has hit in seven out of his last 10 games (16-7-2 all time to the UNDER). Jared Jones has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 6-out-of-7 starts with an average of 7.4. He is at 6.5 with about -135 juice or 7.5 with plus money. I have learned best to just lay the juice and take the lower number on props.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Pirates
- Cubs/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.15 unit (FanDuel -115)
- Jared Jones OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1.34 unit (FanDuel -134)
Washington Nationals 
at Boston Red Sox 
The Red Sox have continued to struggle against left-handed pitching, but this is Patrick Corbin and his home/road splits are terrible to say the least.
Home – 17.1 innings, 3.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Road – 20.1 innings, 8.85 ERA, 2.07 WHIP
With Tanner Houck on the mound for the Red Sox, I will look at laying -1.5 at just about EVEN money. This is the highest the Red Sox have been as home favorites this season. In 2023, they were 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 to the UNDER when home favorites of -175 or greater.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Red Sox
- Red Sox -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +102)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Miami Marlins 
Two teams headed in opposite directions and at this point it is hard not to look at the Phillies in some sort of fashion on every slate. The Phillies are 8-2 and 16-4 SU last 10/20 and 12-3-1 in the F5. The Marlins are near the bottom in F5 with a 5-13-1 record (-$714); but even worse on the moneyline at home 5-15 (-$999).
Ranger Suarez (6-0, 1.72 ERA) versus Trevor Rogers (0-5, 6.15 ERA) is a huge mismatch on the pitching side. The Phillies are a heavy road favorite at -205, so they only work in parlays. Take a look at F5 or full-game moneyline plays here. Suarez has been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball at +539.
I have only had one bet of this size all season and this is another one where we get a two-unit play.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Marlins
- Phillies -1.5 for 2.2 units (BetMGM -110)
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Cincinnati Reds 
at San Francisco Giants 
Looking at splits is a huge piece of baseball handicapping and we have a couple cases of that here. Logan Webb's home/road splits are significant. He is 7-3 SU and 8-2 to the UNDER in his last 10 home starts (13-7 SU and 15-5 to the UNDER last 20).
- Home 22.0 innings (three starts), 0.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP vs. Road 24.1 innings (five starts), 5.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP
The Reds are 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and wRC+ over the last 21 days. They have lost eight in a row and 11 out of their last 13 (9-4 to the UNDER). Their May slashline is a gross .167/.234/.255.
-150 is just on the borderline of when I take a moneyline vs. a run line.
My concern in this game is that the Giants are also not hitting which means a moneyline and run line play is not in consideration. I was looking at both starting pitchers either under their earned runs or over their recorded outs, but will go with a full-game total under 7.5.
MLB Picks for Reds at Giants
- Reds/Giants UNDER 7.5 for 1.2 unit (BetMGM -120)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cubs/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.15 unit (FanDuel -115)
- Jared Jones OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1.34 unit (FanDuel -134)
- Red Sox -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +102)
- Phillies -1.5 for 2.2 units (BetMGM -110)
- Reds/Giants UNDER 7.5 for 1.2 unit (BetMGM -120)
- 4 LEG PARLAY - Red Sox/Phillies/Braves/Dodgers ML for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +485)
