Oak's Corner: Thor – The Inflated ERA

The Week That Was

As drafts approached and I researched and prepped more, I found myself moving Noah Syndergaard up my draft boards, but after two months of the 2019 season, it sure doesn't feel like a very good decision. After a 2017 where he missed most of the season, I really liked that he managed 150-plus innings in 2018 with a strong ERA, and his trips to the DL were for a finger, and for hand, mouth and mouth disease. I really thought his next step up would be an elite season, assuming some modicum of health of course. Well, he has managed to take the hill every five days, but the ERA is an ugly 4.90, which grows in ugliness when you consider his draft day price.

An initial look at his stats shows that he should have some luck heading his way, as his strand rate is an extremely low 64.7 percent and his .333 BABIP is above his career norms, which helps to explain his much lower 3.60 FIP. But, after watching him and looking deeper at his profile, I'm not so sure anymore. When you watch Syndergaard, he feels like he's missing that put-away pitch that he possessed in 2015 and 2016. His strikeout rate still sits at 9.20 K/9, a bit above last year, but below the 2015 and 2016 seasons, but his swinging strike rate is easily the lowest of his career at 11.7 percent.

His velocity is still fantastic at 97.7 mph, but he's throwing a lot less sliders at 12.2 percent (he was always near or above 20 percent), which could certainly be contributing to fewer swinging strikes, as it was a dominant pitch for him in the past. It scares me a bit that he's throwing it so much less, as I immediately worry that it could be in order to avoid an arm injury. I also don't love the excuses that have been made, as he earlier blamed the ball (I don't doubt the ball is different with lower seams, but everyone else is pitching with it, too), and last night, he commented the Dodgers must have been somehow cheating to hit the pitches they hit. I'm still starting Thor every week and wouldn't sell low on him right now. I think the results will get better, but I'm no longer convinced we're going to see a total dominant stretch this year like I had anticipated, especially if he continues the diminished slider usage.

Brandon Lowe has been a nice find for fantasy owners this year, putting up 11 homers and 32 RBI, placing him in the top 10 in both categories among players eligible at second base. He has completely taken over that job in Tampa Bay and has found himself in the top half of the Rays lineup most of the season. With that in mind, I consider Lowe one of the biggest sells in the game right now and he's a guy who might actually be sellable, as people do love the hot rookies.

The big red flag in Lowe's profile is the extremely elevated strikeout rate, which currently sits at 35.5 percent, good for the second highest in baseball and is more than 10 percent higher than his 2018 rate. Further, he has a 20.4 percent swinging strike rate, which makes him the only player in the whole league with a rate more than 20 percent. With that strikeout rate, the .278 batting average has to come down, and the .394 BABIP is never going to stick. He does make a lot of loud contact, as his hard hit rate is at 44.5 percent, so the power may remain, but the average is going to tank, especially as pitching staffs adjust to him the second time around. Lowe is only 24 and has a bright future, but there are going to be some real hiccups soon, and the time to move him is now in any single season leagues.

FAAB Feelings

We don't have the sexy rookies this week (aside from maybe Mitch Keller) that we had the last two weeks, so I'll highlight some lesser known names who may be able to help you as you try and replace injured or underperforming players.

Carson Kelly. The catcher position, especially in two catcher leagues, is so meager that anyone who shows any kind of pulse has some value, and Kelly is been doing more than that. With three more hits on Thursday, Kelly is now hitting .280 overall and over .350 in May. Even more impressively, he has a meager 9.3 strikeout rate in May against an 18.5 percent walk rate. Kelly hasn't been much of an offensive force in his minor league career but he does have five homers already and, most impressively, an elite 46.8 percent hard hit rate.

Kelly didn't have a ton of plate appearances in the majors the last two years, but in that small sample, he had an average exit velocity in the low 80s, but so far this year, he stands at 88.9 mph. Kelly isn't going to be a savior, but his performance thus far doesn't look lucky, and he should certainly be rostered in all two-catcher leagues. In the NFBC 15-teamers he has been snapped up in most spots over the last couple weeks and is owned at 86 percent, but is only 27 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team leagues and that needs to and will change this weekend.

Mitch Keller. Keller had a tough start to his major league career on Monday against the Reds, allowing six runs in the first inning, but to his credit, he did settle in after that and threw three scoreless innings. He was initially called up as the Pirates had a doubleheader and was sent back to Triple-A on Tuesday, but that start inserts him into the player pool for bidding this week. Keller was a second round pick in 2014 and came into 2019 as the consensus best pitching prospect in the Pirates system. So far in Triple-A this year, Keller has a 3.45 ERA in 47 innings. His strikeout numbers are impressive at 10.7 K/9, up from his 2018 season, but the walks are a bit of an issue so far at 3.8 BB/9.

There were many stories that Keller was working on a slider this season to fully round out his repertoire (to go with a strong fastball/curveball combo) before the Pirates were going to call him up. Despite the rough debut, with Jameson Taillon out until the All Star Break and a team starting pitching ERA that puts the Pirates in the bottom 10 of MLB, one would have to think he is back up fairly soon, and once he is, it will likely be for good. With him back in the minors, the bidding should be more muted, but he's still a big enough prospect name to get picked up in most leagues. If you have a spot to stash Keller for a few weeks, act now as he should help you in the second half.

Mark Canha. With the release of Kendrys Morales and the injury to Khris Davis, Canha has taken advantage of increased playing time, mashing nine homers in only 106 plate appearances. During this stretch, Canha has improved his contact, dropping his swinging strike rate to 7.2 percent, while also bumping up his walk rate to 14.2 percent. I was hoping his hard hit rate would be a bit higher at only 32.3 percent, but has had a couple of seasons in the high 30s, so there's a chance he could improve that as the season progresses.

Canha has been a monster in May, posting a 1.119 OPS while slugging .761 with seven homers, and this is one those hot streaks to ride while you can. It's unclear how the A's will work out the playing time in left field between Canha, Robbie Grossman and Chad Pinder once Davis returns to his DH slot, but Canha is certainly making his case to earn a majority of the at-bats. His eligibility in the outfield and first base also bumps up his value a touch in fantasy leagues. For those in daily-moves leagues, I suggest grabbing Canha as a bench bat, as you can adapt to the A's lineups daily a lot easier than a weekly- or twice-a-week-moves-league. Canha is only 14 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues and 51 percent in the 15-teamers, and while his usefulness might only last until Davis returns, he should be owned for now, especially for a team who needs to find a bit of pop on the waiver wire.

A Closer Look

With a 19-37 record, the Royals are clearly not very good, but hidden in a messy bullpen and a 4.18 ERA, Ian Kennedy has been surprisingly good so far in 2019. He locked down his third save on Thursday night, and while the Royals have mixed and matched a bit, it appears the job is mostly Kennedy's now, but the Royals amazingly had one ninth-inning save opportunity between May 1 and Thursday, and Kennedy did happen to blow that one. There is no doubt that Kennedy has struggled in May so far, allowing nine runs, and that has caused him to be dropped in a lot of leagues. He's only owned in 16 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and 46 percent of NFBC 15-team leagues.

Even bad teams generate some save opportunities, and while the Royals aren't going to win a lot of games, if Kennedy can convert the next few saves while in the role, the job should be his, as they really don't have anyone else lingering who presents a real threat to run with the job. Despite the recent hiccups, Kennedy still sports a 10.3 K/9 strikeout rate while only walking 1.6 batters per nine. In addition, he has done a nice job limiting hard contact with a hard hit rate under 30 percent while also inducing nearly 50 percent ground balls. Kennedy isn't going to be dominant, but with saves always tough to find, I'd certainly bid on the 2019 skills of Kennedy and hope the Royals can find a way to flip a few of their close games into leads and fall into a decent run of saves for Kennedy.

Series of the Weekend

Phillies at Dodgers. The Rays visiting the Twins is the best matchup by record, but having written about both of those teams in the last few weeks and the American League in three of the last four weeks, I wanted to highlight this intriguing series in the Senior Circuit. While much of the national buzz in baseball has centered on the Twins recently, the Dodgers are plugging along with the second best winning percentage in baseball and face off against another division leader and the second best record in the National League in the Phillies. We do miss out on seeing this Dodgers offense against Phillies ace Aaron Nola this weekend, but they will get the resurgent Jake Arrieta returning to the spot of his 2017 no-hitter, and the series will also feature Clayton Kershaw on Saturday.

The Phillies gigantic splash in the offseason was the signing of Bryce Harper to a 13-year deal. Harper has finally started to warm of late with eight hits in his last three games and enters the start of June with 10 homers and 41 RBI to go with his .252 average. There are solid numbers, but not yet what the Phillies or fantasy owners paid for, although the average sure looks a lot better than the .227 it stood at entering this week. Batting average swings are no stranger to Harper, as his average has been a roller coaster over the past three seasons, from .243 to .319 to .249, and in 2018 his average even shifted significantly from the first to the second half.

The most concerning number in Harper's profile is his 30.9 percent strikeout rate, a statistic that has been climbing for Harper each of the last four seasons, but this year is a big step up from the 24.4 percent number he posted in 2018. I'm sure there is some pressing right now in Harper's game coming off the huge money he received combined with the desire to please the often tough Philadelphia fans, but I'm worried that the strikeouts have actually increased to 32.7 percent in May when he should have been past the butterflies and settling into his season. Also of concern is the 15.8 percent swinging strike rate, which is the highest of Harper's career and places him among the bottom 10 in baseball in that stat.

When Harper does make contact, he is smoking the ball at career highs of a 45.3 percent hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 92.2 percent, but he is also at a career-high 12.5 percent infield fly ball rate. A lot of strikeouts and pop ups clearly are never going to be a good combo for batting average, but of course Harper is also walking a ton at 15.3 percent to put his OBP in a pretty good spot at .364. While that helps the Phillies, it doesn't help the fantasy stats a lot as he isn't using the walks to steal bases at all, attempting only two thus far, which isn't really surprising, as him running a lot isn't worth the risk to the Phillies. I'm still ready to chalk a bunch of his start off to pressing and being a streaky hitter, and I wouldn't be selling him in any way, but I want to see the strikeout rate come down closer his career norms before I go out and actively try and acquire him at what is likely still a high price due to the name.

The Dodgers offense has been a monster through the first two months of the season, scoring the most runs in the National League. They're actually the only National League team in the top seven in runs scored. Cody Bellinger has obviously been the story, as the Dodgers continue to pile up runs, but hidden in all that action has been the tepid start to the season for Corey Seager. Seager was supposed to be the next big thing for the Dodgers upon his 2015 call-up, and he hit very well in 2016 and 2017, but injuries crushed his 2018, and this season has been mundane.

Seager is only hitting .249 with six homers and 27 RBI through 223 plate appearances. The lack of big power isn't a big surprise, as he has yet to top 30 homers, but when healthy, Seager has been a nice batting average boost in fantasy leagues, hitting .308 in 2016 and .295 in 2017. His hard hit rate is down five percent from 2017, currently sitting at 39.2 percent, and while the increased fly balls at 43.8 percent should eventually help his home run total, his line drive rate is down to 19 percent, more than five percent off his peak years, and those line drives were a big part of the reason he was so intriguing as a batting average option. It's worth watching to see if the changes stick and this is a new approach, or, the more likely scenario to me, that after missing essentially all of 2018, he's still knocking off the rust. As long as he stays healthy, a big if of course, since he had two major injuries last year, I think he's a nice trade target right now who will revert to his old self in the second half, which is just what the rest of the National League needs to see, right?