MLB: Winter Meetings Recap

News of Juan Soto's historic 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets broke Sunday night, before the winter meetings began Monday. Predictions that Soto's deal would free up the market and spur other action proved to be correct, as there was plenty that went down this week in Dallas.

Let's break down some of the big signings and trades that happened this week and go over the fantasy impact.

Yanks' Pockets Deep for Fried

You knew the Yankees would have a response after losing out on Soto to the crosstown Mets. Their pivot was not to another hitter, but rather one of the marquee starting pitchers in Max Fried.

On Tuesday, the Yanks and Fried agreed to an eight-year, $218 million contract. The $218 million figure was not an accident, as it was $1 million more than David Price's $217 million deal with the Red Sox, allowing Fried to set a new major-league record for a left-handed pitcher.

Was giving Fried eight years excessive? Sure. He will turn 31 in January. However, other clubs were reportedly offering the southpaw seven years and the Yankees didn't want to be spurned by a second big free agent in the same week. The club knows Fried is unlikely to be a frontline starter during the back-end of his contract, but that's just a reality you must accept when you're big game hunting.

On the mound, Fried has been extremely reliable. Since becoming a full-time starter at the major-league level in 2019, he boasts a 3.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 23.8 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate. Fried's work during the postseason has been spotty on the whole with a 5.10 ERA. He's turned in five clunkers across his last six postseason outings dating back to 2021. Of course, the one start that wasn't a clunker was the World Series Game 6 clincher versus the Astros when he went six shutout innings.

Fried has dealt with his fair share of durability issues, most notably missing time each of the last two seasons with forearm problems (the injury was listed as a strain in 2023 and neuritis in 2024). He has, however, made at least 28 starts and thrown at least 165.2 innings in three of the last four campaigns, in addition to accruing 37 postseason frames over that span. I don't have much concern from a health perspective with Fried for 2025, not any more than any other pitcher, anyway.

Fried doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like for a guy with that kind of contract. What he excels at is getting groundballs and inducing weak contact. His 58.8 percent groundball rate in 2024 was a full-season career high, and his average exit velocity ranked in the 95th percentile. Since 2020, his average exit velo has never fallen below the 90th percentile. What this does mean is Fried really needs a good infield defense behind him, and the Yankees' infield defense in 2024 was not good. They're almost sure to be better at second base with Gleyber Torres no longer around, and they have been connected to premium defenders at the corner infield spots like Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado and Christian Walker. Who the Yanks ultimately bring in at these spots could certainly affect Fried's outlook.

Pitching at Yankee Stadium and in the American League East isn't ideal, and the Orioles moving their left-field fence back in doesn't help. Fried, though, has been a master at avoiding the long ball, which makes sense for a guy who thrives with grounders and weak contact. He yielded just 13 homers in 2024 and has served up no more than 15 over the last five seasons. Sure, he'll be a victim of the short porch in right field in the Bronx on occasion, but Fried is better equipped to deal with that disadvantage than most. Additionally, while the Yankees' offense as currently constructed might leave something to be desired, I suspect it will project to be a plus unit by the time we get to Opening Day. The run support for Fried should be fine.

With the addition of Fried, it seems as though the Yankees will trade one, if not two, other starting pitchers to help fill other needs. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been listed as possible trade chips and could fetch a nice return, with Gil being floated as the potential headliner in a package to get Kyle Tucker from the Astros. Marcus Stroman has also been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, but that would be more of a salary dump. There's also Nestor Cortes, although one wonders how healthy he is after he missed time down the stretch of the regular season and playoffs with a flexor strain.

Red Sox Thread Needle, Land Crochet

The Red Sox were one of the aforementioned clubs that reportedly offered Fried a seven-year contract before the Yankees swooped in with an eighth year to seal the deal. Instead of sulking, Boston quickly moved on another arm, swinging a massive trade Wednesday to land Garrett Crochet from the White Sox.

As you might expect, the cost to acquire Crochet was not cheap. Headed to Chicago in the deal are catching prospect Kyle Teel, outfield prospect Braden Montgomery, infield prospect Chase Meidroth and pitching prospect Wikelman Gonzalez. Teel was considered one of the "big four" prospects in a loaded Red Sox system and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, while Montgomery was the club's first-round pick in the 2024 Draft. 

Last week, I did an in-depth piece on Crochet as part of my Offseason Deep Dives series, so I won't regurgitate too much of that here. The only thing that's changed, of course, is we now know his destination. Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch for a left-hander, nor is the AL East. However, I'm not sure those factors matter much for a pitcher of Crochet's caliber.

One interesting wrinkle is that the Red Sox, under the guidance of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey, threw the fewest four-seamers of any team in baseball in 2024, and it wasn't particularly close. Crochet's four-seamer was easily his most-used pitch last season, and it produced a 31.4 percent whiff rate, the second-highest rate for four-seamers in baseball among starting pitchers. Bailey is no dummy. When you have a four-seamer as good as Crochet's, it will be thrown. Still, I will be interested to see what the pitch mix breakdown is for the southpaw in 2025.

Crochet is less reliant on his defense than Fried, but it should be noted that Boston's infield defense last season was terrible. It figures to be better at shortstop with (hopefully) a full season out of Trevor Story, and there's been talk about shifting Rafael Devers over to first base and getting a better glove at the hot corner. Also, Boston's outfield defense in 2024 was terrific.

Ultimately, I think it's going to come down entirely to Crochet's ability to hold up with a full-season workload. If he does that, he'll be a fantasy ace.

Teel is the prospect of the four acquired by the White Sox who probably has the best shot to have a fantasy impact in 2025, although he might ultimately be a better real-life player than fantasy player. The left-handed hitter's power is middling, and while he stole 12 bases in the minors last season, he's unlikely to be much of a threat in that area at the major-league level. Teel is close to being major-league ready, if he's not already, and Korey Lee doesn't present much of a road block. The bigger impediment might be fellow catching prospect Edgar Quero, who isn't a good defender but who might have a higher offensive ceiling than Teel. Of the guys arriving from Boston, Meidroth might have the best chance to make Chicago's Opening Day roster. While his plate discipline is elite (he had a 71:105 K:BB in 2024!), Meidroth doesn't have a very fantasy-friendly skill set.

Gimenez to Toronto, Horwitz to Pittsburgh, Ortiz to Cleveland

This one seemed to come out of nowhere.

The Guardians, less than two years after signing Andres Gimenez to a seven-year, $106.5 million contract extension, traded him to the Blue Jays on Tuesday along with Nick Sandlin in exchange for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell. Horwitz was then flipped to the Pirates, with Luis Ortiz, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy going to Cleveland.

Gimenez has turned into one of the elite defenders in baseball. He's won three straight Gold Gloves at second base and this year captured the Platinum Glove, which rewards the best defender at any position in each league.

Gimenez's bat has been less predictable. The 26-year-old broke out in 2022, slashing .297/.371/.466 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. The offensive breakout, along with his stellar glove, is why the frugal Guardians felt compelled to ink Gimenez to a long-term deal.

Unfortunately, Gimenez has taken a clear step back at the plate each of the last two seasons, hitting .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers in 2023 and .252/.298/.340 with nine homers in 2024. He did steal 30 bases in both of those seasons, allowing him to return top-10 fantasy value at second base.

The quality of contact with Gimenez doesn't paint a pretty picture. After producing an above-average 37.8 percent hard-hit rate in 2022, he cratered to 27 percent in 2023 and 28.5 percent in 2024. His barrel rate has gone from 6.2 percent to 5.5 percent to 2.8 percent over the last three years. Gimenez has cut his strikeout rate each year down to a career-low 15.3 percent in 2024, but his already-low walk rate has come down with it, sitting at just 4.1 percent this past season.

Gimenez's fantasy value looks relatively unchanged to me with the move to Toronto. It's a minor ballpark downgrade, but Gimenez looks like a poor power bet now, anyway. From the current makings of the Blue Jays' lineup, he would appear in line to bat sixth, which is where he spent most of 2024 with the Guardians. Cleveland's and Toronto's offenses were virtually a wash in wRC+ (100 for the Guardians, 101 for the Blue Jays) and OBA (.306 for the Guardians, .307 for the Blue Jays). Notable is that the Guardians ranked fifth in baseball in steals in 2024, while the Blue Jays ranked 27th. That seems like mostly a personnel thing, though, as Gimenez and Jose Ramirez were the only two Guardians to steal more than 12 bags. I'd look at Gimenez as a speed-only fantasy asset in 2025 and hope he can just tread water elsewhere. With Gimenez aboard and the Blue Jays seemingly likely to add additional offensive help, Will Wagner, Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider and Orelvis Martinez could have their playing time squeezed.

Horwitz looks like a winner in this deal, as the Pirates appear set to roll him out as their regular first baseman against right-handed pitching. The 27-year-old is a player the Pirates have evidently been trying to acquire for a couple years, and they were finally able to pull it off with the help of another club.

Horwitz is a former 24th-round pick who has never been regarded as much of a prospect, in large part because he didn't really have the power for first base and didn't have the glove to play anywhere else. He's hit everywhere he's been, though, producing a career .307/.413/.471 batting line in the minors and hitting a promising .265/.357/.433 with 12 homers in 97 games last season with the Blue Jays.

Virtually all of the left-handed hitting Horwitz's production in 2024 came against righties. He had an .864 OPS with all 12 of his long balls versus right-handed pitching, as opposed to just a .522 OPS against lefties. He'll likely be in a strict platoon but should get plenty of leash, given how much leash the Pirates provided Rowdy Tellez last season. Horwitz will have dual eligibility in 2025 and could be a viable middle infield option, albeit one with a very limited ceiling.

It wouldn't surprise me if Ortiz winds up being the most valuable fantasy asset in 2025 of all the players involved in these two deals. Admittedly, a large part of my thinking there is due to having a great amount of trust in the Guardians to get the most out of their pitchers.

Ortiz is a different pitcher than he was in 2022 when he came up for four starts with the Pirates and averaged 98.4 mph with his four-seamer and got whiffs at nearly a 50 percent rate with his slider. His four-seamer velocity was 95.9 mph in 2024, and his strikeout rate was only 19.2 percent. However, he also put up a 7.6 percent walk rate after coming in at 12.4 percent from 2022 to 2023.

I don't know what the Guardians have planned for Ortiz's pitch mix, but they'll have something up their sleeve. I'll be taking a few late-round fliers on the right-hander.

WhataBurger

Jake Burger is on the move again, getting dealt for the second time since the 2023 trade deadline, this time to the Rangers for prospects Max Acosta, Brayan Mendoza and Echedry Vargas.

It may seem odd that a guy who has cranked 63 home runs over the last two seasons and who is not yet eligible for salary arbitration has been traded a couple times already. The reason Burger has been deemed expendable is that he's severely limited beyond that home run pop. He's graded out poorly defensively both at third and first base and has a career walk rate of just 5.7 percent. It's just not the type of profile that's valued very highly in today's game.

That doesn't mean Burger is bereft of fantasy value, though. He finished in the top 15 both at first and third base in 2024, rebounding from a sluggish first half to post a .901 OPS with 19 home runs after the All-Star break. Burger crushes the ball when he makes contact, ranking 11th in all of baseball since the start of the 2023 season with a 14.4 percent barrel rate. He'll get notable lineup and ballpark upgrades with the move to Texas. Globe Life Field ranks fourth in baseball for right-handed home runs, per Baseball Savant, while loanDepot Park comes in at 26th.

The big question for me with Burger is his role. Currently, he would appear in line to see the bulk of the starts at designated hitter for the Rangers. However, Texas has Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Leody Taveras vying for playing time in the outfield and one of those guys (likely Garcia) will need to DH sometimes. Burger also offers protection at third base while Josh Jung recovers from another wrist surgery and at first base for Nathaniel Lowe, who has been mentioned as a possible trade chip. There are lanes to everyday playing time for Burger, but the margin for error is slimmer than it was in Miami and he's a guy prone to ups and downs at the plate.

Quick Hits:

– Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Rangers on a three-year, $75 million contract. Nothing really changes here since Eovaldi is staying put. He'll turn 35 in February and doesn't provide a ton of strikeouts or volume, but Eovaldi has settled in as a reliable mid-tier fantasy starter and should be drafted as such again in 2025.

– Jordan Romano signed a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Phillies. Romano was, somewhat surprisingly, non-tendered by the Blue Jays but wound up getting a bit more from Philadelphia than what he was projected to receive in arbitration. The righty reliever basically had a lost 2024 season and is coming back from elbow surgery, but he's expected to be healthy in spring training and from 2021 to 2023 logged a 2.37 ERA and 30.3 percent strikeout rate with 95 saves. Manager Rob Thomson prefers not to have a set closer and it's unlikely Romano will enter 2025 with the title, but he could easily find himself at the top of the pecking order.

– Michael Conforto inked a one-year, $17 million contract with the Dodgers. Conforto slashed a good-not-great .237/.309/.450 with 20 home runs over 130 games in 2024 with the Giants, but his quality of contact (46 percent hard-hit rate, 11.8 percent barrel rate) suggested his numbers probably should have been a bit better. It's easy to envision a solid bounce-back season for him in 2025 as part of the Dodgers' lineup.

– Thairo Estrada latched on with the Rockies on a one-year, $3.25 million deal. Estrada battled through multiple injuries with the Giants in 2024, finishing with a .217/.247/.343 batting line over 96 games and eventually getting booted from the 40-man roster. However, he averaged 14 home runs and 22 stolen bases from 2022 to 2023 and now gets to play half his games at Coors Field. He's now firmly back on the fantasy radar.

– The Blue Jays brought back Yimi Garcia on a two-year, $15 million contract. Garcia struggled with the Mariners after being traded there by the Jays at the deadline and finished the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation. However, he's presumably healthy now and boasts a 3.44 ERA and 179:39 K:BB over 157 innings during his time in Toronto. The 34-year-old could enter 2025 as the favorite to close for the Blue Jays.

– Detroit scooped up Alex Cobb on a one-year, $15 million deal. Cobb is now 37 and was limited to just three regular-season starts in 2024 due to a multitude of injuries, but he was a serviceable mid-rotation starter for the Giants from 2022 to 2023, putting up a 3.80 ERA and 282:80 K:BB across 301 frames. It's a good park for him and he should be worth rostering in fantasy for as long as he's able to stay on the mound.