This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for April 26th
We have some rain, we have some doubleheaders and we have a few aces on the mound today, the last Saturday in April. Let's try to pick some winners!
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Angels Vs. Twins
The moribund Twins lineup had a big night on Friday, pounding out 11 runs vs. whatever remains of Kyle Hendricks and two Angels relievers. But you know what that they say; momentum is only as good as today's starting pitcher. And for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, that is their putative ace, Yusei Kikuchi. The Halos big off-season acquisition has pitched well and with impressive consistency, going between 5 and 6 innings in each of his 5 starts, with either 5 or 6 strikeouts every time. All told, Kikuchi has a 3.38 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Control has plagued him at times in his career and its rearing its ugly head so far this season to the tune of an 11.6% BB%
He gets a good matchup here as the Twins have just flailed vs. lefties. In 180 PA's so far this season, they have a league high 32.8% K% to go with just a .157 Avg. and 48 wRC+. Byron Buxton has hit southpaws well in his career with a 113 wRC+, but even that has come with a 29% K%. In recent years, the Twins have gone to an extreme platoon "line change" approach vs. lefties, but injuries (Twins hitter on the IL, go figure) and a very thin lineup to begin with have made that tough to pull off in 2025.
I like Kikuchi to get to his strikeout prop, set at 5.5 of course since he has gone right there in every start. I also don't like him to get deep into the game. The K's I anticipate as well as the walks I fear might run up his pitch count.
MLB Best Bets: Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120 DraftKings)
Yusei Kikuchi Under 17.5 Outs Recorded -105
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Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
We all read a bit too into small sample sizes early in the baseball season, mainly because 1) We're all human and 2) What else can we use for our Hot Takes? Well, as of April 17th, the Braves looked like complete toast. They had a 5-13 record and a .222 team batting average. The bats looked just as they did at the teams' worst in 2024, with only Marcell Ozuna hitting well.
But again, it's still early. The Braves have since won 6 of their last 7, and the bats have completely come alive. They've slashed .280/.352/.453 over the past week, good for a 126 wRC+.
Atlanta gets a favorable matchup tonight as the DBacks will start Merrill Kelly, . He is kind of the definition of an MLB middle to back-end starter that has real value to a team. He takes the ball every 5th game and generally gets through 5+ innings and gives them a chance to win. In 4 of Kelly's 5 starts, he has indeed lasted 5+, and yielded 2 runs or fewer each time. That 5th start though was a huge clunker to the tune of 9 hits, 3 walks and 9 earned runs in just 3.2 innings. But hey, it was in Yankee Stadium right in the middle of the Torpedo Bat craze.
Even with the caveat that Kelly has pitched well in all but 1 outing, I like the idea of fading him vs. a potent team that has started hitting. At his best, Kelly still pitches to contact and hopes to avoid BABIP disasters. He has just a 21.8% K% in his career, with a 10% SwStr% that is down to 8.7% in 2025. And his already bad 4.73 ERA this year could be even worse as that has come with just a .224 BABIP, vs. .280 over his career. He's given up 10 barrels (12.7% Barrel%) but just 3 homers, in addition to a career high 90.5 EV.
Ozuna is still crushing it with a .300 AVG. and .500 SLG, while Matt Olson comes in on a 9 game hit streak, over which he has 3 homers and a .469 wOBA. I will roll with Overs props on both.
MLB Best Bets: Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120 DraftKings)
- Yusei Kikuchi Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105 DraftKings)
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
- Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
