This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures Odds: AL West Rundown
Welcome to the AL West, where the Houston Astros have perhaps slipped back to the pack. The betting markets still favor them, however.
AL West Odds
- Houston Astros +125
- Texas Rangers +225
- Seattle Mariners +250
- LA Angels +3000
- Athletics +3000
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Projected AL West Standings
But the algorithm at Fangraphs? Not so much, it's basically a 3-way dead heat.
AL West Odds and Betting Notes
Houston Astros
- Wins 87.5, -105 Over
- To Make Playoffs Yes -185, No +145
- Key Adds: Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Brendan Rodgers
- Key Losses: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander
- Astros Betting Notes
- '23-'24 Road at plus money; 33-20, 27.34% ROI
- '24 Road Unders; 48-28, 20% ROI
We've grown so accustomed to the Astros winning the West and/or advancing to at least the ALCS but they barely resemble their WS winning team of just 3 seasons ago. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Framber Valdez are the last remaining stars.
Paredes directly replaces Bregman and it's not much of a hit to projected WAR. Walker fills their gaping hole at 1st as the Astros .277 wOBA from the position in 2024 was the 2nd worst in MLB. But now they've sprung a leak in an already thin OF with Tucker gone.
Altuve's is 34 now and his fielding range has dropped all the way to the 3rd percentile as per Statcast. So the Astros plan to try him in LF, which does not sound like a great solution for an aging player who has only played middle infield and also has arm strength in the 7th percentile. This all looks headed south, I will take the Wins under.
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Texas Rangers
- Wins 85.5
- To Make Playoffs Yes -125, No +105
- Key Adds: Jake Burger. Joc Pederson, Jacob deGrom (from injury), Kumar Rocker
- Key Losses: Nathaniel Lowe, Max Scherzer, Kirby Yates
- Rangers Betting Notes
- '24 Home F5 Unders; 50-31 17.3% ROI
- '21-'24 Away Overs in March-April; 29-17, 22.58%
The 2023 WS champs had a 2024 hangover and slumped to 78-84 amid a bunch of injuries and down years from the likes of Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia. There's a really optimistic case for a 2025 bounceback.
deGrom stays reasonably healthy, Wyatt Langford continues his late-season surge and turns into a superstar and Burger has a big season in the middle of an excellent lineup playing in a much better hitters park. I'm bought in, I will roll with the wins over and the +225 to take the division.
Seattle Mariners
- Wins 84.5
- To Make Playoffs Yes -110, No -110
- Mariners Betting Notes
- '24 Home Unders; 45-30, 13.5% ROI
- '21-'24 Away Unders in March-April; 31-19, 17.87% ROI
- '21-'24 Away Overs after April; 148-107 10.61% ROI
No, I didn't forget about Key Adds, the Mariners just basically did nothing of significance this off-season. They project to waste the affordable years of a really excellent starting pitching staff by pairing them with a terrible offense. They unfortunately might face some pitching health regression in a bad way as they had four starters go at least 175 innings (the rest of the division had 3 combined). I will take the Playoffs No.
Los Angeles Angels
- Wins 71.5 -120 Over
- To Make Playoffs Yes +900, No -1800
- Key Adds: Yusei Kikuchi, Kenley Jansen, Jorge Soler
- Angels Betting Notes
- '24 Unders in day games; 28-19, 13.2% ROI
- '21--24 Home Division games, Angels opponents 72-51, 13.68% ROI (fade Angels)
Unlike far too many teams, the Angels have actually tried to get better this off-season. Kikuchi went slider-heavy (37.1%, up from 16.8%) after a mid-season trade from the Blue Jays to the Astros, and pitched like an ace (5-1, 2.70 ERA, .93 WHIP, 25.9% K-BB%, 2.70 SIERA). This team always seems snakebit. They plan to move Mike Trout to RF this season. If he can just stay somewhat healthy and Zach Neto returns relatively quickly from his shoulder injury, this team could outperform expectations. Let's take a shot on the Wins over.
Athletics
- Wins 71.5
- To Make Playoffs Yes +850, No -1400
- Key Adds: Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
- Athletics Betting Note
- '21-'24 Away in March April; 25-29, 16.91% ROI
I know they want to just go by "Athletics" but they will play home games in Sacramento for at least the next three seasons, so I reserve the right to call them the Sacramento Athletics. The most interesting betting angle here is really what to do with totals in home games.
Their "new" ballpark played like a pitcher's park in the PCL. But that only means it was relatively pitcher-friendly relative to the other launching pads in the league. Summer highs average about 20 degrees greater in Sacramento than in Oakland, but only during daylight; at night there's only an average diff of 2 degrees. That makes some sense as humidity is actually higher in Oakland.
As our Todd Zola pointed out recently, most of the A's home games are at night, so roll it all together and Sacramento should play as less of a pitchers' park than Oakland and its giant foul territory, but most likely on the league neutral side. I am going to watch home totals, especially early on, but I have no real opinion on any A's season props.
AL West Best Bets
- Astros under 87.5 Wins (-115)
- Rangers over 85.5 wins
- Rangers to win AL West +225
- Mariners under 84.5 wins
- Angels over 71.5 wins (-120)
