This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-0-2, 0.82 RW Bucks
Season: 10-8-2 0.47 RW Bucks
We have a more compact 10-game slate Thursday, with an even split between day and evening games. I'll hone in on three wagers spread over two games, one on both ends of the schedule. There's a direct contrast between the games in terms of the starters, with the first game shaping up much more as a pitcher's duel and the second likely to be a much higher-scoring affair.
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and William Hill Sportsbook.
Phillies at Cardinals, 1:15 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Kwang Hyun Kim
The Pick: Under 7.0 runs (-108 on FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Cardinals +110 at William Hill for 1 RWBuck
Nola was absolutely masterful against the Cardinals two starts ago, throwing a two-hitter with 10 strikeouts. The right-hander hasn't been quite as sharp in his other four starts, but he's still yielded more than three earned runs in just one outing. St. Louis hasn't just had trouble with Nola, either, posting a 26.1 percent strikeout rate, .289 wOBA and -9.9 wRAA against right-handers overall.
Kim was much sharper in his second start, allowing just one earned run in 5.2 innings to the Reds while recording eight strikeouts. The southpaw gave up three earned runs on five hits in three innings to the Phillies, but Philly is batting .176/.182/.351, with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate, -5.1 wRAA and .224 wOBA versus left-handed pitching, averaging just 3.2 runs per road game.
Rockies at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m.
Starting Pitchers: Antonio Senzatela vs. Luke Weaver
The Pick: Diamondbacks -154 on FanDuel for 1 RWBuck
Senzatela has a 5.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across his first five starts and his sporting an abysmal 5.4 K/9 as well. He did stymie the Diamondbacks at Coors on April 7, but Arizona averages the fifth-most runs per home game (5.4). Senzatela also gave up three home runs to the Dodgers across 2.2 innings in his only road start of the season, and his Colorado squad averages the second-fewest runs per road game (2.3).
Weaver hasn't exactly been dominant, but his 4.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across four starts are serviceable. He's managed to mostly limit damage by giving up no more than four ER in any of his starts and has managed a serviceable 76.5 percent LOB rate. The Rockies aren't very imposing either, considering their 25.0 percent strikeout rate, .220 average, .276 OBP, -7.5 wRAA and .292 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
