This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Bets and Props for Wednesday, July 31
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 3-8 (-5.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 25-22 (+2.81 RW Bucks)
With the dust settling after the trade deadline, I'm honing in on a pair of evening interleague games Wednesday featuring a contender looking to snap a sudden funk and a team devoid of postseason aspirations nevertheless playing with no shortage of motivation.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Best Bets
The Astros have mostly recovered from a surprisingly lackluster start to the season, but they enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak that surprisingly includes back-to-back home stumbles against the Pirates. However, Houston checks in as a heavy favorite for the series finale, with that line fueled by a favorable pitching matchup.
While the Astros will trot out the capable Framber Valdez, who's won four straight decisions, the Bucs will counter with Jake Woodford, who's being summoned from Triple-A Indianapolis and holds a 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP over 8.1 innings at the big-league level this season with the White Sox. Woodford has been pitching well in the minors since joining the Pirates' organization and has been serviceable in the bigs in past seasons (10-7, 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but he's facing a Houston squad with a .272 average, .340 wOBA and +15.2 wRAA at home against righties since June 1.
Although Woodford has acceptable numbers in a very small sample against lefty bats this season, he's been knocked around by that handedness of hitters for a .301 batting average, .361 wOBA and 5.38 FIP during his career. That makes Yordan Alvarez, who's hitting .364 in his last nine games but notably has just one homer in his last 19 contests dating back to July 4, an interesting prop play from a total bases perspective. The fact Pirates relievers have pitched to a 5.40 ERA, a .310 batting average and a .367 wOBA against the 72 left-handed bats they've faced on the road since July 1 only strengthens the slugger's case.
Houston is also still fourth in MLB in runs per home game (4.96) despite the last pair of losses, putting me in the direction of the over on the Astros' team total.
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MLB Picks for Pirates vs. Astros
- Astros Over 4.5 Total Runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bets
The Athletics' offensive awakening since shortly before the All-Star break has been something to behold, with Oakland scoring at least five runs in 11 of its last 15 games. Mark Kotsay's squad has an intriguing mix of promising young bats and reliable veterans who have been clicking on close to all cylinders on many days recently, but their hot streak could see at least a temporary cooling Wednesday.
Facing Logan Webb at cavernous Oracle Park is one of the more unpleasant endeavors in baseball for opposing bats, with the talented right-hander typically proficient on his home field. This season, Webb has forged a 3.00 ERA and 0.5 HR/9 across 60 home frames, despite a rough encounter with the Blue Jays in his most recent home outing.
The Athletics' recent body of work does support the notion they could conceivably give Webb at least some trouble, especially with Oakland sporting a .342 wOBA versus righties on the road in July. Webb has also started showing some signs of potential mid-season fatigue in his three recent starts – two of which have come on the road – going a total of just 16 innings in the trio of outings despite throwing under 90 pitches in two of them.
Manager Bob Melvin could very well be more cognizant of Webb's workload as the second half unfolds, so I'm very comfortable taking the under on the 19.5 Outs Recorded prop Wednesday, especially if the A's display some of their typical recent scrappiness and make the veteran labor a bit for his outs.
However, with the inconsistent Ross Stripling, who's pitched to a 2-9 record, 6.02 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season, on the bump for the A's, I don't envision the Giants, which are a heavy favorite, having too much difficulty eventually creating a bit of separation against an A's team that allows 4.9 runs per road game.
Best Bets for Athletics vs. Giants
- Giants -1.5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Logan Webb Under 19.5 Outs Recorded (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros Over 4.5 Total Runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Giants -1.5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Logan Webb Under 19.5 Outs Recorded (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
