MLB Bets Today: MLB Bets and Props for Sunday, August 10
I'm focusing on a pair of National League battles on the latter portion of Sunday's slate, two games that feature a quartet of prominent pitchers that nevertheless have some vulnerabilities.
2025 Betting Record: 28-28-1 (-0.86 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 16-11 (+3.00 units)
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants 
Best Bets
This series finale features an intriguing matchup between two quality pitchers with relatively parallel scenarios when it comes to their surface metrics. Both Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore and Giants RHP Justin Verlander carry 4.29 ERAs that are accompanied by ugly won-loss records that somewhat belie their overall body of work to date.
Gore's 4-12 mark is partly the result of having received two runs or less of support from his offense on 10 occasions across 23 starts. Gore has been guilty of giving up a few long balls in those games as well, but he's been victimized by a .315 BABIP in the sample. He's also carrying a 4.01 xERA that hints at the fact he's been more effective than his base number indicates, and the left-hander has been a bit better on the road, where he has a 3.89 ERA and 11.1 K/9.
Gore happens to have a great track record against current Giants bats, holding them to a collective .167 average and .543 OPS over 52 career encounters while ringing up 19 strikeouts in that span. Meanwhile, San Francisco has mostly struggled against lefties at home this season, and it sports a .228 average, .266 wOBA and -6.6 wRAA in that split since July 1. Moreover, the Giants come in averaging the second-fewest runs per first five innings per home game (2.14).
For his part, Verlander's respectable ERA is accompanied by a dismal 1-8 record, and just like Gore, his team has offered two runs or fewer of support in 10 of his starts. In Verlander's case, that constitutes more than half his starts, since he's made 19 trips to the mound. However, there are more worrisome metrics on his side of the equation than there are in Gore's.
Verlander carries a .271 xBA, .344 xwOBA and 4.69 xERA, and he's conceding his highest barrel rate (9.8 percent) since the career-high 15.4 percent he gave up during a 2020 season where he only threw 73 pitches overall. Then, Verlander has also had a heap of trouble against current Nats bats in his career, as they've gotten to him for a collective .366 average and .981 OPS in 43 career encounters, with five of their 15 hits in the sample going for extra bases.
Both of these pitchers are certainly capable of dominating in stretches, yet have some factors working against them Sunday. Gore seems to be in a better spot overall matchup-wise, however; therefore, I'll go with a bet that has the Nationals at least within a run in the first five and pair it with one banking on the two teams combining for at least three runs in that span, the latter a distinct possibility considering both Gore and Verlander have been generous early in games (41 and 33 total runs allowed, respectively, in their first three innings of starts this season).
- SGP: Nationals +1.5 - F5 and Over 2.5 runs- F5 (-102 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals 
Best Bets
This primetime divisional clash to close out Sunday's slate also has two noteworthy arms on the bump, as Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga will face off with Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray.
Imanaga was surprisingly knocked around by the White Sox three starts ago to the tune of seven earned runs on 12 hits, including three homers, in just three innings. However, that's a clear outlier of a performance for the southpaw, who's otherwise allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his other 15 starts. That includes a June 26 turn at Busch Stadium where he blanked the Cards for five innings while surrendering only one hit.
Imanaga has held current Cardinals hitters to a collective .160/.176/.260 slash line in 51 career encounters. He's also been better on the road than at Wrigley, as he holds a 5-3 record, 2.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 48.2 away frames while also posting a more acceptable 1.3 HR/9 than the 2.0 figure he's generated at home.
While the latter pair of numbers do underscore he sometimes has issues keeping the ball in the park, he's drawing a reasonably favorable matchup in that regard Sunday. Not only have current Cards managed just a single homer off him in the aforementioned career sample, but dating back to June 1, St. Louis has a .215 average, .094 ISO, .269 wOBA and -13.5 wRAA against lefties at home despite being better recently in a small post-All-Star-break sample.
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Meanwhile, Gray has a much more checkered history in this matchup, as current Cubs bats own a collective .297 average, 14 extra-base hits and an .891 OPS in 112 career plate appearances against him. No less than five Cubs regulars have multiple career hits against the veteran righty, and if Justin Turner is inserted into the starting nine Sunday, it's worth noting he's tormented Gray for a .539 average with two doubles and two homers across 14 career plate appearances.
Gray has outings where he's surrendered eight and six earned runs within the last month, and he's allowing a .291 average with runners in scoring position while surrendering 32 total runs in the first three innings of his 23 starts. The Cubs have been a dangerous offense all season and are coming off a nine-run showing Saturday, so the path to the two bets I'm recommending is certainly there.
- Cubs moneyline - F5 (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Cubs moneyline and Cubs Over 2.5 total runs (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Nationals +1.5 - F5 and Over 2.5 runs- F5 (-102 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cubs moneyline - F5 (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Cubs moneyline and Cubs Over 2.5 total runs (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
