This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
New York Mets at 
Philadelphia Phillies
This betting opportunity is reinforced by a gross mismatch of starting pitchers, The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill to make his 10th start. He's posted a 6.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, including 21 walks and 28 strikeouts in only 44 innings of work. This will be his sixth day start of the season, and in his previous five days starts he's posted a horrid 8.43 ERA and a 1.828 WHIP with more walks (14) than strikeouts (13).
Even though the Phillies have a higher-than-average chase rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone you can be sure that they will be selective on every first-pitch delivery. For instance, right-handed batters will be shrinking the strike zone to only pitches that are thrown middle-in to them. That location is the best hot zone for RH batters. For left-handed batters like Kyle Schwarber, any pitch thrown over the inner third and just above the knees is going to hit with an exit velocity of around 110 mph. Moreover, Schwarber has a great batting eye as evidenced by his 0.323 OBP percentage.
Zack Wheeler will be on the hill for the Phillies. He is 6-4 in 15 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, including 20 walks and 98 strikeouts spanning 88 innings of work. He has pitched remarkably well over his last three starts posting a remarkable 0.47 ERA and a 0.776 WHIP, including four walks and 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings.
Wheeler is a traditional three-pitch power starter with an excellent fastball that has late-breaking arm-side movement with heavy sinking action averaging 96 mph. What makes his fastball one of the best in MLB is that he averages a very tight and high spin rate of 2450 RPM. His slider averages 91 mph and an even higher spin rate at 2550 RPM. Then he will throw a curve with one of the highest spin rates in MLB at 2700 RPM. The spin rates are so high that it makes it nearly impossible for the batter to identify the pitch thrown. If the "red dot" can be seen on below-average curveballs, it's invisible with Wheeler's curve ball offerings. Moreover, just 4.5 percent of all his pitches have found the barrel of the bat this season.
Phillies skipper Thomson is 50-18 when facing a team that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game and 9-3 in the 2023 season.
MLB Best Bets for Mets at Phillies
- 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies, using the money line on a 5-to-10-unit grading
- 1-unit bet that Kyle Schwarber will hit a home run
- 1-unit bet that Bryce Harper will hit a home run
- 1-unit bets bet that Zack Wheeler will have more than 6 strikeouts
Washington Nationals at [San Diego Padres]
The Washington Nationals are a struggling team and have the MLB's second-worst record in June at 4-14, with only the Kansas City Royals posting a worse mark (4-15). The Nationals' pitching staff has struck out 18 percent of opposing hitters faced this month, the lowest mark by any team's pitching staff in the span. The Padres must take advantage of the upcoming gauntlet-type schedule featuring winning teams if they want to be a true contender in the NL Wild Card race. Starting Monday, the Padres start a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners followed by a three-game series against in Philadelphia against the Phillies, and then if that isn't enough, a four-game series against the first-place, scorching hot Cincinnati Reds led by rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz.
Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs and with a team (Padres) averaging four or more walks per game and has allowed three or fewer runs in each of the past two games has earned a solid 118-63-5 record for 65 percent winning bets over the past five seasons. This system has had profitable seasons in every one of the past five seasons. Now, if the game is the last game of any series, the Under has gone 36-15-3 for 71 percent winning bets.
MLB Best Bets for Nationals at Padres
- 8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total on a 5-to-10 Unit grading
- 1-Unit bet that Seth Lugo will record 5 or more strikeouts
- 1-Unit bet that Manny Machado will hit a home run +450
- 1-Unit bet that Gary Sanchez will hit a home run +500
