MLB Best Bets and Player Props for
Monday, July 8
There's a small slate of games tonight with only six contests and it's hard to believe the All-star break is only a week away. We're going to skip over the early game and focus on the five later games for tonight's action.
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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox Best Bet
Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Strikeouts -115 (FanDuel)
Williams struggled in his first appearance with Cleveland, allowing five runs in only four innings. He managed only two strikeouts in that outing and it was against these same White Sox. That makes the 4.5 line very suspicious, although it's worth noting the Tigers strike out 24.2 percent of the time against right-handed pitching, the eighth-worst mark in baseball. Williams struck out just under a batter per inning last season – 81 strikeouts in 82 innings – so the math suggests the over should hit here. I'd also dabble in some weighted odds for this wager; Williams at 7-plus strikeouts tonight is +420 on FanDuel.
MLB Picks for Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Strikeouts -115 (FanDuel)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies Bet Bet
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Runs +118 (BetRivers)
I don't think Ryan Feltner is any special pitcher and at least with Andrew Abbott you know there's upside with the young pitcher. Abbott has been fantastic at home during his short career, putting up a 3.28 ERA (1.20 WHIP) in Cinncinati while striking out just under a batter per inning. The Rockies have the seventh-worst wOBA against left-handed pitching on the road (.279 wOBA), and have struck out 26 percent of the time, the third-highest mark in baseball.
MLB Picks for Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Runs +118 (BetRivers)
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Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 2.5 Runs -154 (DraftKings)
Here is my favorite wager of the night. Chris Sale has been dominant this season with a 2.71 ERA supported by a 0.92 WHIP. However, I can't ignore that Sale is on the road (he's been fine this season with his home/away splits) and Vegas thinks he will not last more than six innings (Under 18.5 Outs is -180 on DraftKings). The Diamondbacks are merely league average (15th in baseball) against left-handed pitching at home (.322 wOBA), but that's a stat that's above average overall. If you feel like having some fun, I'd take a look at the Arizona anytime home run odds. Randal Grichuk +680 (FanDuel) and Lourdes Gurriel +750 (FanDuel) come to mind considering they have the righty-versus-lefty matchup and have both homered off of Sale in the past.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 2.5 Runs -154 (DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Strikeouts -115 (FanDuel)
- Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Runs +118 (BetRivers)
- Arizona Diamondbacks Over 2.5 Runs -154 (DraftKings)
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