MLB Barometer: Risers and Fallers

The sticky-stuff scandal is undoubtedly the biggest overarching storyline surrounding baseball right now. It's produced plenty of anger, as players are justifiably mad at the rules suddenly being enforced midseason, and plenty of entertainment, as it's not every day that you see a player take his pants off on the field.

Spontaneous stripping doesn't provide fantasy points (at least not in any setup I've seen), but the crackdown will of course have a significant effect on the values of many pitchers the rest of the way. Two such pitchers appear in this column, though it may still take some time before the true impact reveals itself. The post-enforcement sample sizes are still small enough that it's entirely possible many pitchers just randomly had a down start or two at a suspicious time and equally possible that some pitchers haven't shown the effects of their reduced stuff yet due to some lucky breaks offsetting that drop.

There's another storyline that should emerge over the coming weeks, which could have equally large ramifications for fantasy players: What exactly is it like to play 162 games after a season in which you played just 60? It's a difficult question to answer, as there's simply no recent precedent. Even in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign, teams played an average of 114 games, with the schedule jumping up to just 144 the next year.

It stands to reason the injuries, especially for pitchers, should start piling up soon. We haven't necessarily seen that happen yet, but that's not surprising. Last year's innings leader (Lance Lynn) tossed 84 frames; this year's leader (Sandy Alcantara) has thrown 106.2. Pitchers are starting to get four or five starts past their totals from last season, which isn't too large of a number, but another five starts or so could start to really strain pitchers.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether there will be any lingering positive effects from a year of reduced workloads. Did a lighter workload last year contribute in any way to Jacob deGrom's dominance? What about Clayton Kershaw's strong season (more on that in a minute)? It's possible the extra rest last year was particularly beneficial to veterans. The case of Buster Posey, who's hitting like it's 2012 again after opting out of last season entirely, provides a particularly strong anecdote for that argument, as does the example of Salvador Perez, who took a year off back in 2019 thanks to Tommy John surgery and has been hitting at a career-best level ever since his return. As with the foreign substance scandal, it may take some time to figure out the full extent of the effects of last year's shortened schedule, but I'm definitely interested in tracking the numbers of some overperforming veterans as we head into the second half.

RISERS

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: Sure, Kershaw is past his peak, though there's no shame in being worse than the guy who posted a 1.95 ERA over a five-season stretch from 2013 to 2017. Over the last few years, however, there's a case to be made that he's aging in reverse, something that doesn't usually happen in the first four years of a mere mortal's 30s. In 2018, his fastball velocity dipped nearly two ticks to 90.9 mph, while his strikeout rate fell to 23.8 percent, his lowest mark since his rookie season a decade prior. He's averaged a nearly identical 90.7 mph over the last three seasons, but he's clearly figuring out how to pitch with reduced velocity, as his strikeout rate continues to steadily rise, jumping to 26.8 percent in 2019, 28.1 percent in 2020 and 30.5 percent this season. He's only getting better in that regard as the season has gone, as he's averaged 9.4 strikeouts over his five June starts after whiffing a season-high 13 Cubs on Sunday. Now that he's back to being an elite strikeout weapon while keeping all the other strengths he never lost, he should return to his place as a true, top-tier fantasy arm again.

Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins: I love a pitcher with no weaknesses. While none of Lopez's 24.6 percent strikeout rate, 7.5 percent walk rate and 52.2 percent groundball rate last year were particularly elite, just two pitchers (Kershaw and Framber Valdez) who threw at least 50 innings could match or beat all three numbers. Combined with his pitcher-friendly home park in Miami and the fact that he just turned 25 years old this March, that made him one of my favorite pitchers to target during draft season. He's rewarded his fans thus far this year with a career-best 2.87 ERA. Both his strikeout rate (25.8 percent) and walk rate (6.0 percent) have trended slightly in the wrong direction, enough to offset a small drop in his groundball rate (48.5 percent). No other qualified starters have matched or exceeded all three of those marks this season. He's only getting better as the season has gone on, striking out 31.8 percent of opposing batters while walking just 3.6 percent in five June starts. Lopez looks like a young starter gradually figuring things out and transforming from a solid midrotation starter to a true frontline arm.

Michael Brantley, OF, Astros: Brantley doesn't have the best health track record (though he's played in a respectable 86 percent of his team's games over the last four years) and he doesn't provide all that much power or speed anymore, but he remains one of the league's elite contact hitters. Since his debut back in 2009, he ranks 11th among hitters with at least 4,000 plate appearances with a .299 batting average and ranks fourth among that same group with a 10.8 percent strikeout rate. He turned 34 years old in May but hasn't lost anything in that regard. After hitting a phenomenal .456 thus far in June, he's taken over the league lead with a career-high .349 batting average. You might think that his .382 BABIP indicates he's getting very lucky, but Statcast suggests he deserves every bit of that mark, giving him an xBA of .352, a number he's backed up with career highs in barrel rate (7.2 percent) and hard-hit rate (47.1 percent). He's only homered four times this season and hasn't attempted a single steal, but there's no better batting-average stabilizer out there, and there's little reason to believe that's about to change. 

Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF, Blue Jays: I was not at all a fan of Biggio during draft season. I was impressed by his 15.5 percent walk rate last year, but even his modest .250 batting average and .432 slugging percentage stood out as clear overachievements given his .214 xBA and .343 xSLG. Stealing six bases in 59 games didn't represent enough speed to justify him going anywhere near his NFBC ADP of 66.4 if his bat fell back to that level. Up until he landed on the injured list with a neck sprain in late May, I was thrilled to have no shares of him, as he hit just .205/.315/.315 with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate, homering just three times while stealing two bases in 39 games. He's been something else entirely in 15 games since returning to action, however, hitting .292/.414/.563 while striking out just 17.2 percent of the time. Not only is he making far more contact, he's also making far better contact, as he had just a 3.6 percent barrel rate and 28.9 percent hard-hit rate prior to the injury but owns a 13.2 percent barrel rate and 47.4 percent hard-hit rate since. He still hasn't attempted a steal since returning to action, which is a minor worry, but he could justify his draft-day price from here on out even without running much if he maintains a similar level of performance at the plate.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Giants: DeSclafani was a fairly interesting late-round option heading into last year's draft season, as he was coming off a year in which he rode a solid combination of a 24.0 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate to a 3.89 ERA. Things couldn't have gone much worse for him in 2020, however, as he missed time with a back injury and struck out a career-low 15.8 percent of opposing batters while walking a career-high 10.1 percent en route to a 7.22 ERA. That made him a forgotten man this winter, but he's turned things around dramatically upon moving from a hitter-friendly home in Cincinnati to a pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco. His improvement to a 2.77 ERA is due to far more than just park factors, however. His strikeout rate is back up at 23.1 percent, his walk rate is back down at 6.9 percent, and his groundball rate has jumped to a career-high 46.9 percent groundball rate. He's been even better in his four starts in June, cruising to a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.

Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds: Stephenson is still slightly behind Tucker Barnhart (who owns a career-best 112 wRC+) on the depth chart behind the plate in Cincinnati, which makes it tough to roster him in one-catcher formats, but he's already very usable in two-catcher setups and has hit well enough that he's likely to continue to carve out a larger role. Through 190 plate appearances on the season, the rookie backstop is hitting .267/.379/.429 with five homers. His 124 wRC+ is good for 10th among catchers who have come to the plate at least 100 times, sandwiched between J.T. Realmuto and Salvador Perez. He was seen by scouts as having a fair amount of potential at the plate, with the ability to hit for league-average power and contact, so his strong numbers aren't coming out of nowhere. Perhaps most impressive for a player with Stephenson's lack of experience is his advanced approach, as he's walked in 12.6 percent of his plate appearances while striking out at a 17.4 percent clip. Toss in the fact that he plays half his games at one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and he's already a very solid two-catcher option who could jump up a tier should Barnhart lose time due to injury or a slump.

FALLERS

Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees: Cole seems to be turning into the unwilling face of the sticky-stuff era, something that appeared destined to happen after he awkwardly responded "I don't ... I don't know ... I don't quite know how to answer that," when asked point blank whether he'd ever used Spider Tack at a press conference in early June. While he may have selective amnesia regarding whether he'd ever touched the stuff, his profile sure looks like a pitcher who did and then suddenly didn't. The spin rate on his fastball fell from 2,556 rpm in May to 2,398 rpm in June, while his curveball and slider have dropped by 78 rpm and 156 rpm, respectively. That's had the expected results on his numbers. Through the end of May, Cole owned an excellent 1.78 ERA and 36.9 percent strikeout rate. After getting knocked around by the Red Sox on Sunday, he now owns a 4.65 ERA and a 25.4 percent strikeout rate in the month of June. Cole should still be a very good pitcher once he figures out how to pitch with reduced stuff, as he reached such a lofty height that he can fall by quite a bit and still remain one of the league's best pitchers, but I'm not sure I'd consider him in the mix for the top pitcher off the board if I were drafting today.

Hector Neris, RP, Phillies: Neris is coming off one of the strangest weeks for a reliever that I can remember. He blew a save Wednesday, his third in his last four opportunities, leading manager Joe Girardi to announce Friday that he'd been replaced by Jose Alvarado as the team's closer. Neris then went on to record a save that very same day, as Alvarado blew a save in the first game of the doubleheader against the Mets, leaving Neris as the best option for the nightcap. Girardi then went back to Neris for a save chance Saturday, which he promptly blew, seemingly ruining his chances of making the role his own again. Neris' season-long numbers are far from terrible, though his 3.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 28.6 percent strikeout rate all look better on a setup man than on a closer. That's more or less been who he is throughout his career, as those numbers are all quite similar to his lifetime 3.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 30.0 percent strikeout rate. That said, Alvarado isn't necessarily closer material, either, as his 2.57 ERA comes with a 4.37 FIP and a 19.4 percent walk rate. It's entirely possible Neris is closing again before too long, but he's a committee member in the middle of a slump at most for now.

Tommy Edman, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Cardinals: In classic Cardinal fashion, Edman emerged from relative obscurity to hit .304 with 11 homers and 15 steals in 92 games as a rookie in 2019. His sophomore season was a disappointment, as he hit just .250 with five homers and two steals, but fantasy players are desperate enough for speed that he remained fairly popular during draft season this past winter. Through the first two months of the year, he looked to be rewarding those who had faith in him, hitting .276 with four homers and 10 steals in 54 games. In June, though, his ability to get on base has completely evaporated, as he's hit just .211/.219/.284 while walking only a single time all month. You have to get on base to be able to steal, so it's perhaps no surprise that he's swiped just a single base in his last 16 games. You also have to get on base in order to deserve the leadoff role, so it's equally unsurprising that he was dropped to sixth in the order Thursday. Fantasy players likely have to hold him for now, given how important he can be in the steals category, but he doesn't help much in any other area, especially if he's hitting in the back half of the order, so it might be time to think about benching him for a bit.

Garrett Richards, SP, Red Sox: Richards wasn't exactly a hot commodity during draft season, but he did have his fans, as he's been quite effective at times in his career when healthy and was coming off a year in which he produced a respectable 4.03 ERA. His first four starts couldn't have gone much worse, as he walked more batters (13) than he struck out (12) while struggling to a 6.48 ERA. He looked to be settling down as a competent option over his next eight outings, cruising to a 2.98 ERA and rewarding those who picked him up after he was initially dropped. The wheels have come off again in his last three trips to the mound, however. He's allowed 15 runs (12 earned) on 21 hits in 11 innings, striking out just six while walking seven. Richards is one of a small handful of players who have openly admitted to having to change their routine following the sticky-stuff crackdown, so there's reason to believe he's legitimately dropped in talent level. He could figure things out eventually, but he was only ever moderately interesting when things were going well, so there's little reason to wait for him to turn it around in most formats.