Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, meaning plenty of prospects could be on the move as buyers look to ship out young talent in exchange for big-league players. Organizations like the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians and Dodgers in particular boast standout farm systems and contending squads and could be looking to pull the trigger on deals to improve their chances of winning a World Series. It's an exciting but also uneasy time of year for phenoms, some of whom could be traded and others who could suddenly find themselves with an blocked path to the big leagues, or both.

While this article won't speculate on which particular neophytes could move locations, we'll look into ones who are making headlines.

UPGRADE

Thomas Harrington, P, PIT – Harrington has been lights out at Double-A this season posting a 2.44 ERA and 69:8 K:BB in 62.2 innings. As the numbers indicate, his control has been impeccable while continuing to miss bats with opponents recording a .230 BAA. The 23-year-old righty can throw as many as five pitches, though his fastball/slider/changeup combo represents his best offerings. Pittsburgh's Double-A affiliate lists other high-upside arms like Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco, yet Harrington has been the best of the bench in 2024. Next year's Pirates rotation headlined by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones could look scary if the rest of these hurlers follow suit.

Jonah Tong, P, NYM – Tong came into the current campaign with little fanfare, but he's quickly making a name for himself as he fanned a staggering 36 batters over 18.2 innings at Low-A while failing to allow a single earned run. That resulted in a quick bump to High-A, where the 21-year-old has also been impressive with a 74:24 K:BB through 57.1 frames with batters hitting a mediocre .203 against. Tong has an exceptional fastball with plenty of break while also getting swings and misses with his curveball and slider. The seventh-round selection from 2022 has vaulted up the prospect charts. Brandon Sproat has experienced some serious helium in the Mets system this season, though Tong also deserves a nod for his vast improvement.

Cole Carrigg, OF, COL – Carrigg was drafted as a catcher, but has played in center and shortstop at High-A. If he continues to rake, the Rockies will eventually be forced to find a place for him somewhere in the lineup. The 65th selection in last year's Draft, Carrigg is slashing .300/.372/.502 with nine homers, 39 RBI and 31 steals. He's a switch-hitter with a polished approach at the dish  who offers more consistency over power, though he'll still reach the double-digit home run mark and eventually getting his home games at Coors Field will help his cause. Carrigg is athletic and obviously has shown the ability to swipe bags. If his power stroke truly develops, he could become highly sought-after. As it is, Carrigg has certainly played himself into Colorado's future plans.

Jackson Ferris, P, LAD – Ferris has gotten better as the year has progressed. He was wild during the first month, resulting in a bloated 5.68 ERA by June. However, Ferris's ERA improved and he currently lists a 3.89 across 18 starts at High-A. The 6'4" southpaw has been virtually unhittable during July with a 0.95 ERA and 24:5 K:BB over three starts and 19 innings. Ferris ranks as one of the top lefties in the minors and has recently been pitching like a frontline rotation anchor.

CHECK STATUS

Josh Knoth, P, MIL – Knoth is an extremely young arm who won't turn 19 years until August, yet has nearly completed a full season at Low-A. Not only that, but he's been pretty successful having produced a 3.75 ERA and 73:35 K:BB from 62.1 innings while batters have gone .219 against. Knoth can fire up his fastball to the upper 90s, though the high-spin sliders and curveball are his true weapons. He can still be a bit wild, but he's managed to limit the damage overall while notching a 1.44 GO:AO and only giving up three homers across 16 starts. Knoth is still a ways away from making a big-league impact, though he's he's done well in his first taste of professional ball -especially considering his youth.

Gary Gill Hill, P, TB – Hill is another teenager from New York who enjoying a stellar season at Low-A. He'll be 20 years in September, but that shouldn't take away from his standout statistics that includes a 2.92 ERA and 74:18 K:BB through 71 innings. Hill relies even more on the groundball than Knoth having registered an amazing 1.74 GO:AO. A sixth-round pick in 2022, he already appears to be exceeding expectations. Hill boasts elite athleticism, yet he'll need to fill out and mature in order to consistently increase his fastball velocity. He's been accurate with his heater, cutter and other off-speed offerings and has a chance to be yet another developmental darling for the Rays.

Aidan Smith, OF, SEA – Keeping with the theme here, Smith is only 19 while impressing at Low-A having produced a .284/.402/.470 line with nine home runs, 42 RBI and 28 steals. He strikes out a fair bit, but also garners enough walks. Smith is still likely a hit-over-power prospect, yet has plenty of room to add strength and muscle and isn't devoid of pop. He's one of the many exciting young hitters the Mariners carry at the lower levels alongside Felnin Celesten, Colt Emerson and Lazaro Montes. Smith is flying under the radar compared to those phenoms, but it would be a mistake to disregard him now.

Matt Wilkinson, P, CLE – Wilkinson has already exceeded expectations for the Guardians having fanned 129 batters from 81 innings between Low-A and High-A. The 21-year-old was picked in the 10th round out of Central Arizona Junior College, but the southpaw has found little resistance against stiffer competition thus far. Even the move up hasn't slowed Wilkinson's roll as he's registered a 2.66 ERA and 58:16 K:BB in 40.2 innings while the opposition is hitting under .200 against. With a build like David Wells and a nickname of "Tugboat", he's sure to be a fan-favorite.  Wilkinson doesn't throw particularly hard despite his frame, and that will be his chief issue as he ascends to the higher levels. While his ceiling is ultimately an innings eater at the back end of a rotation, it's difficult to argue with his polish and production.

DOWNGRADE

Alan Roden, OF, TOR – Roden is limited defensively, so his bat will need to carry the day. The problem is that he may never hit for enough power to be a key fantasy contributor. At least Roden hit a combined .317 last season between High-A and Double-A with a superb .430 OBP, yet only managed 10 homers. Fast forward to 2024, and he's struggling at Triple-A going .179 with two home runs. Roden offers exceptional patience at the dish and the ability draw many walks, though his power is average at best. And if he can't even hit for average at the higher levels, the value of his plate discipline will be underwhelming. Roden is already and is likely set physically, which projects to him as a platooned lefty off the bench.

Moises Chace, P, BAL – Chace was in the midst of a breakout campaign when he suffered an untimely concussion at High-A. Prior to that, he posted a 1.41 ERA and 46 strikeouts in only 32 innings. Since returning from the IL, Chace hasn't looked like the same pitcher with a 7.41 ERA over seven appearances and 17 innings. He's also battled wildness, though that issue was part of his repertoire even before he was sidelined. Add in the fact Chace has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation, so what once appeared to be a coming out party has unfortunately been halted.