This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, May 3
What a wild finish for those bettors who had tickets on which MLB team would have the most wins at the end of April. The winner was the Philadelphia Phillies with 19 wins under a dramatic come-from-behind ninth inning rally over the LA Angels. The Phillies rank fifth best with a .255 batting average, but it was the struggling Nick Castellanos who hit the game-tying home run and then the ninth batter in the lineup Johan Rojas hit a bomb with Bryson Stott on base to seal the win.
Meanwhile, out on the West Coast were the Atlanta Braves, who lost 3-2 to the Seattle Mariners with their ace on the hill in Luis Castillo. He completed seven shutout innings and the bullpen held on for the win. The Guardians were the biggest "bad beat," though, as they lost 10-9 in the 10th inning to the Houston Astros. The Guardians took a 3-0 lead in the first and appeared on their way to their 20th win. The Astros struck back with three in the third and five runs in the fourth inning. The Guardians came back with a five-spot of their own in the sixth inning to tie the game. It is an anomaly to have 16 runs scored in just four innings of an MLB game.
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A Proven Betting Algorithm for Games Played in May
The Phillies posted a 19-9 record through April, but we want to know how these teams do in May and beyond. Do the fast starts continue or do they tread water going around the .500 mark? To start with teams that are 10 or more games over .500 playing in the month of May have gone 785-700 for 53 percent averaging a -136 betting line and a -5.5 percent ROI. Fading these juggernauts has resulted in a 2.5 percent ROI.
Digging deeper into the database uncovers a solid betting strategy to fade these hot-starting teams and get cheap prices to exploit. Teams that are 10 or more games over .500 are batting a solid .250 or better on the season and find themselves priced as road underdogs have gone a money-losing 86-149 for 37 percent, averaging a 125-underdog bet resulting in a -19 percent ROI. Fading the hot teams has made the Dime Bettor a $45,590 profit since 2004.
Best Bets for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals will host the Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game, inter-league matchup starting tonight. The Blue Jays are priced as -185 favorites with a posted total of 8.5 runs, but the line is moving to 9.0 runs at Bet Rivers.
The Washington Nationals are one game under .500, which is certainly much better than preseason expectations. They have won five of their last seven games on the road, including a four-game sweep of the Miami Marlins. They lost to the Texas Rangers but did win the second of the three games. The Toronto Blue Jays are underperforming with a 15-17 record because of an anemic offense batting .224 on the season and scoring only 3.5 runs per game. Moreover, they have lost their last three series and have posted a 3-7 record over their last 10 games.
The market is providing a low price to back the Nationals with the ever-struggling Patrick Corbin on the bump. The lefty is 0-3 in six starts with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.895 WHIP, including 13 walks and 22 strikeouts spanning 31.2 innings of work. However, in his last home start, he went 5.1 innings of scoreless three-hit baseball against one of the best offenses in MLB in the LA Dodgers.
The Blue Jays will have Yusei Kikuchi on the hill and has posted a 2-2 record in six starts with a solid 2.94 ERA and a 1.159 WHIP, including 36 strikeouts spanning 33.2 innings of work. He had posted three consecutive quality starts before allowing four earned runs in six innings against the Dodgers.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 25-11-1 Under good for 70 percent winning bets, earning a 35 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $16,720 profit since 2016. The requirements are:
· Bet the Under when it is priced between 8.5 and 10 runs.
· The game is an inter-league matchup.
· The AL team is batting .250 or lower on the season.
· The AL team has batted .240 or lower spanning its last 15 games.
· The NL team is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 5.50 or higher on the season.
· The NL starter has posted a WHIP of 1.65 or higher on the season.
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Player Prop Bets for Friday Action
· Bet the Dodgers' James Outman to get a hit priced at -110.
· Bet the Astros Ronel Blanco Over 6.5 strikeouts priced at -140.
· Bet the Reds Hunter Greene to allow two or fewer earned runs priced at -105.
