This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
I'm assuming Monday is Patriots Day in Boston, given that the Red Sox are playing the White Sox at 11:10 p.m. ET. However, that game is not included for DFS contest purposes, which is surely a relief to those of you on the West Coast. That leaves us with six games starting at 7:00 p.m. ET or later. It was to be seven, but then the Twins and Athletics game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. At least it seems the Angels will be back in action.
Pitchers
Joe Musgrove, SD vs. MIL ($10,500): Pitching for the Padres has worked out quite well for Musgrove so far – he even pitched the first no-hitter in the franchise's history. He's allowed all of one run this season, and that's with only one of his starts coming at home. This is a home game for Musgrove, and the Brewers finished 26th in runs scored last season and currently have Christian Yelich on the injured list.
Dustin May, LAD at SEA ($9,300): A big part of recommending May – or any Dodgers pitcher – is the knowledge that there is a good chance of getting the offensive support needed to get the win. However, May is no slouch himself. He's only 23 and has a career 2.85 ERA. May is also striking out more batters to start this season, as he's struck out 12.19 batters per nine innings.
Dylan Bundy, LAA vs. TEX ($): This was supposed to be a start for Jose Quintana, but he has been pushed back to Wednesday, leaving Bundy starting Monday. Getting out of Baltimore has helped Bundy, which has been true for a lot of pitchers getting out of Charm City. Last season he had a 2.94 FIP, and he's struck out 10.42 batters per nine innings to start this season. The Rangers are down near the bottom of the rankings in runs scored to start 2021, which isn't surprising given they finished second-to-last in runs scored in 2020. They had a .285 OBP as a team. Basically, they were really bad at the plate, needless to say.
Top Targets
Mookie Betts, LAD at SEA ($4,500): Betts has a reputation that proceeds himself. He also has a career .301/.374/.522 slash line that proceeds him, of course. Justus Sheffield looked better last season, but his .154 batting average allowed to lefties was a big reason why. He still allowed a .283 average to righties and has a .297 BAA versus right-handed pitchers since 2019. Betts, as a righty and a superstar, is an awful matchup for Sheffield.
Randy Arozarena, TAM at KC ($3,600): Arozarena made himself a star in the 2020 playoffs, and he may never live up to that again. Nevertheless, he had a 1.023 OPS in 23 regular-season games in 2020 as well. The Rays are lefty heavy, which made it trickier to find a recommendation against the left-handed Danny Duffy. However, Arozarena is a righty, and Duffy hasn't had a FIP lower than 4.64 in any of his last three seasons. For Monday night's slate, Chris Morgan likes righty Randy Arozarena against Kansas City pitcher Danny Duffy.
Value Plays/One-Offs
Didi Gregorius, PHI vs. SF ($2,800): Kevin Gausman has become a better pitcher since leaving the Orioles, much like Bundy, but he's a righty, so I figured if I could find a left-handed hitter I could still find a solid matchup to take advantage of. That's got me landing on Gregorius, who has a lower salary than another notable lefty in Philly, Bryce Harper. Gregorius has 20-homer power, which is still pretty impressive for a shortstop, and he rebounded from a bad final year in New York when he joined the Phillies last season. He hit .284 with a .488 slugging percentage and this year he's averaged .296 so far.
Alex Dickerson, SF at PHI ($2,300): In his first "full" season with the Giants, Dickerson had a .576 slugging percentage and hit 10 homers in 52 games. His home park also seemed to serve him well, as he had a 1.093 OPS in San Francisco. Chase Anderson has a career 4.57 FIP, and he's also suddenly found himself offering up a lot of long balls. Over the last three seasons, he's given up 1.88 homers per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Angels vs. Kohei Arihara: Mike Trout ($4,600), Jared Walsh ($3,500), Jose Iglesias ($2,500)
We don't really know much about Arihara yet, as the 28-year-old has just moved to America from Japan. He's made all of three starts and he does have a 3.49 FIP, but he's also only struck out 4.30 batters per nine innings, which is particularly poor in this modern strikeout-happy era. If you aren't striking guys out, balls are going to get put into play, and can Arihara sustain a .277 BABIP? Trout is Trout, of course, the best player in baseball. That's still true, to which his 1.276 OPS to start 2021 can attest. Walsh, a lefty facing a righty, had a .646 slugging percentage last year and has somehow increased that to .707 to start this season. Iglesias, in addition to his fielding prowess, has usually been reliable when it comes to getting the bat on the ball. He has a career .278 batting average.
Cardinals vs. Joe Ross: Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Tommy Edman ($2,900), Dylan Carlson ($3,000)
Ross has not allowed a single run this season, but that's going to change. Pitchers don't tend to go from having an ERA of more than 5.00 for three-straight seasons to being an unhittable ace. Leaving Colorado hasn't hurt Arenado so far. He has a .525 slugging percentage and four homers through 15 games to start his tenure with the Cardinals. Edman is a switch hitter with some potential to do damage with his legs. He had 15 stolen bases as a rookie in 2019 and has three to start this season. Carlson was considered one of the best prospects in baseball prior to the 2020 season, where he admittedly struggled. However, he's still only 22, and this year he's slashed .255/.357/.511 with three homers.
