Twelve games comprise FanDuel's Friday main slate, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Only two pitchers are priced in five-figures with five more coming in at 9k or greater, so we're not forced to spend up. And honestly, this late in the season with only a handful of teams playing meaningful games, this feels like more of a guessing game than usual.
The Giants (-240) are the slate's overwhelming favorite, with the Blue Jays (-180) next up, so with only one team at (-200) or greater, it speaks to that guessing game. Royals-Athletics is our highest run total at 10.0, with only one additional game (Astros-Angels) sitting at 9.0, so minimal offense is anticipated. We look dry throughout the slate, with maybe some minor outbound winds in New York and Anaheim.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, TOR vs. TB ($9,400): In the pay-up tier, I'm between Bieber and the impressive run Zac Gallen ($9,100) is on, though Trevor Rogers ($10,400) is intriguing for GPPs. It's not a tell all, but the betting odds distinguished Bieber for me with Toronto heavily favored and the Rays' 3.2 run expectancy. Bieber has three quality starts in six outings, but has shown a top quality ceiling just twice, so he's clearly better-suited as a cash game, stable floor option.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. NYM ($8,200): It's not an ideal matchup with the Mets having everything to play for, but Alcantara's form doesn't match this price. He has six quality starts in his last seven outings, including one against New York where he went seven innings, allowed just one run and four hits, earning 46 FDP. He's fanned eight in each of his last two, boosting his ceiling.
Trevor McDonald, SF vs. COL ($6,000): For multi-entry GPPs, this play makes a ton of sense. We noted how favored the Giants were in the intro, and the Rockies have just a 2.7 run expectancy against the slate's cheapest pitcher? McDonald wasn't great in Triple-A, but it was with home games in a more favorable hitter ballpark, and he did earn 9.1 K/9 there. He limited the Dodgers to one run in six innings in his only big-league start, and a repeat would flirt with a 5x return.
Top Targets
The Guardians are 3-for-24 (.125) with a .292 OPS against Jack Leiter, but is anyone fading this piping hot team? Jose Ramirez ($4,000) has an eight-game hitting streak, reaching double-digit fantasy points five times. He's a safe set-it-and-forget-it option.
Corbin Carroll ($4,100) saw an eight-game hitting streak snapped yesterday but remains as hot as any hitter coming home. Being a threat on the basepaths helps his ceiling and floor, and he's 8-for-17 (.471) with two homers and a 1.491 OPS off Yu Darvish.
Kansas City's Noah Cameron is in great form, but so is Shea Langeliers ($3,600), who is 8-for-9 in his last two, and boasts a .436 wOBA and .302 ISO off lefties.
Bargain Bats
I'll happily target hot, underpriced, Atlanta bats, and the matchup with Mitch Keller won't deter. Drake Baldwin ($2,700) has an eight-game hitting streak, homering three times and driving in 11. Michael Harris ($2,900) has eight hits, two homers, six RBI and four steals in his last four.
Houston needs their offense to come through and win games to make the postseason, but a lack of form and middling success against Kyle Hendricks makes stacking them a bit challenging. Still, they are priced right where you can take one or two pieces to help round out lineups. Jose Altuve ($3,100) and Carlos Correa ($2,800) make the most sense. But if you want a completely ignored option and trust BvP, slumping Jesus Sanchez ($2,600) is 4-for-10 with a homer.
There could be quiet upside and low rosterage of Masataka Yoshida ($2,800) Friday. He's got 10 hits in his last six, likely still slots into the heart of the Red Sox order, and Tigers starter Casey Mize has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. German Marquez (Rockies): Willy Adames ($3,600), Matt Chapman ($3,300), Heliot Ramos ($3,100)
Believe it or not, Marquez has been worse outside of Coors Field, sporting a 6.98 ERA and allowing a .425 wOBA to righties. We've got sound BvP success from Adames and Chapman, who are a collective 10-for-25 (.400) with five homers and a double. Ramos gives a third top-of-the-order righty, and he's homered in three of his last six.
Royals vs. Luis Morales (Athletics): Maikel Garcia ($3,200), Salvador Perez ($3,100), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,100)
Morales doesn't have targetable splits, but he doesn't miss bats (7.8 per nine), allows 1.6 HR per nine and has a 44.7 percent fly ball rate. Pairing Perez and Pasquantino is a mild challenge given that it forces you to eat up your 1B and UTL spots, but Garcia's flexibility provides some relief, and allows for three affordable options that can benefit from Bobby Witt in front of them. Garcia is a bit feast or famine but has six hits in his last four. Perez has driven in eight in his last six and hit safely in 10 of 11. And Pasquantino has homered in two of his last five, adding hits in 13 of his last 15.
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