This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: College World Series 2024 Final Best Bets for Texas A&M vs Tennessee
We started this journey in February and now we're down to our last game of the 2024 season. Part of me thinks this year felt long, but another part thinks the season is just so short. In comparison to the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA that all clear six months, it is.
The battle between the best two teams in the sport, Tennessee and Texas A&M, will conclude the campaign the only appropriate way, GAME THREE.
While the Aggies went on a war path early to claim game one, it was the Vols who had to battle back in game two after a rough day to even it up. With so much on the line, who has the edge?
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Texas A&M Aggies (+170) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-220) | Total: 10
If you've been paying attention to the numbers this weekend, you'll have noticed how crazy the prices have been. In every game across numerous books, the Vols have been north of -200 in all of them. Considering how good their opponent is and that it's a championship series, it seems a little off. Some of it has to do with the continuous pouring of money on the big orange, but still.
The Aggies exploded like an avalanche early in game one while consistently peppering base hits all over the joint. Their cushion was enough to keep the dangerous Tennessee offense at bay for a relatively stress-free W. But in game two, TAMU grabbed the early lead behind a rope from my 2025 1.1 pick, Jace Laviolette. However, they let the Vols hang around all game clinging to a 1-0 lead until the seventh inning. Then Dylan Dreiling seized the moment with a two-run tater to claim the lead and UT was able to shut it down for the win. Game 3 could be just as dramatic if not more.
There are no mysteries - at least for now - in regards to the pitching matchup. A&M will go with LHP Justin Lamkin, the Sunday starter for the first half of the year. After a string of brutal outings, Lamkin was out of the rotation for the second half of the season, but as he does he's saved his best moments for the brightest stage. In his last two outings, he's allowed just four hits and one walk with no runs over eight innings to go along with 15 punchies. For Lamkin to continue his success, he needs to do what Ryan Prager did - limit the walks and homers, and get ahead in the count. The Vols electric offense will make life miserable for you when you're constantly letting them get in plus counts.
While the dream is to try and have Lamkin go at least five innings, TAMU will have just about every one of their arms available tomorrow with the likely exception of Chris Cortez who threw almost 100 pitches in game two. That means Stopper of the Year Evan Aschenbeck is primed and ready to roll. There could be a lot of combos used to get the job done. It's worth noting before Dreiling's clutch home run in the seventh, the Vols were 0-14 with runners on base and 0-6 with RISP until that point. It's highly unlikely it happens two games in a row.
On the Tennessee side, it's their season-long Sunday guy, Zander Sechrist. A 2023 mid-week starter turned 2024 rotation guy, Sechrist has had a nice story. Additionally, he's been the best starter for the Vols over the last month. In his last five starts dating back to 5/18 vs. South Carolina, the Z man has surrendered just two earned runs and five walks over 29.1 innings. He's also gone at least six innings in four of them. It's been pure consistency. Then you figure every arm is available except for Aaron Combs who threw over 50 pitches in game two. Tennessee's approach to the Aggie offense needs avoid the early fastballs. It's been an aggressive approach for A&M, and they will look to try and get after a gimmie. While it's not the same lineup without Braden Montgomery, they have shown they can still be extremely dangerous.
There are no game props out yet, so I can't give out anything there. Personally, I waited until the UT lost the first game to jump on a plus-money series price. Now that I have that in my pocket, I am trying a middle of TAMU +1.5. Ultimately I do think Tennessee ends up winning, but I'm not comfortable laying that big of a number for such a close breakdown. It's an over-inflated price that's not worth it, so if you like UT then I would say wait for a potential live bet opportunity. Or maybe see if you can get a Tennessee to not bat in the ninth inning prop once that line becomes available since it will be a big reduction on the price. I would feel bad not giving you a play pregame, so I'll leave you with this.
Pick: Aggies +1.5 +100
It's been a real pleasure doing this column for the entire season covering the sport I love so much. Thank you to everybody that read these and followed along this year. I'll still be doing some MLB work this summer. And of course, I'm bringing back some insight for the MLB Draft coming up in a few weeks.
