This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets Today: Saturday, March 1
Clemson delivered last night in a fierce first game of the Palmetto series that came down to the wire. We still have two more of those by the way. Overall, the Friday slate was good (5-2: +2.96u), but it could have been a monster if that loser Texas A&M program I put on a pedestal had a shred of heart.
The Aggies and ASU, which was a much more gut-punching loss, blow leads in the ninth to keep it from a perfect day. Yes, I do love complaining as much as anybody, it's near the top of my favorite things to do list, but this is more venting. Please be patient.
The Saturday spotlight is on deck.
Get in on the college baseball action this season by cashing in on generous sportsbook promos offered by the best online sportsbooks such as the DraftKings promo code which gets new players a Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets offer.
Texas Longhorns (-175) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+135) | Total: 16
Pre-2025, this was one of the better rivalries in College Baseball when these two programs were both great and members of the Big 12. They fought some wars. Last season, Texas took the series 2-1 down in Lubbock, headlined by a 22-8 Friday night victory, scoring 33 runs in that weekend. On day two of the Las Vegas Classic tournament, both of the winning Friday night teams will look to recapture that magic again.
It was a wild series of events for the Horns last night. They were up 9-1 on Washington going into the top of the seventh when it looked like they were going to coast for an easy W, until their bullpen went into near full meltdown mode and allowed the Huskies to plate eight runs combined in the seventh and eighth innings with a potential blown lead looming. They managed to sneak it out, though.
On the mound is LHP Luke Harrison, who is enjoying a great start to his campaign. Harrison's 9.2 IP, one earned run, 8 K/1 BB ratio has given Texas a fantastic 1-2 Friday-Saturday punch thus far. Working his first year as a full-time starter, he'll have the daunting task of trying to slow down one of the hotter lineups in Texas Tech. Since getting dotted in the opening weekend against UNC, all the Red Raider lineup has done is mash. They plated 29 runs last weekend against UC Irvine and 10 yesterday against Illinois.
If Harrison wants to keep his hot start going, he needs to focus on the four hitters of the TTU offense who are doing the most damage.
TJ Pompey is off to a blazing start, batting .407 with four homers, and a 1.356 OPS. Kyeler Thompson, Damian Bravo, and Robin Villenueve are hitting .333 or better and have an OPS of .974 or better. Although it's not the Tim Tadlock offense we've known in the past, they're still dangerous and hang a crooked number quickly.
Harrison needs to keep free passes down and work low in the zone as he has been. Pitches up in the zone are where this team has been thriving so far, and in Las Vegas where the ball is flying, he can't afford mistakes like that. In the two games of this tournament yesterday the combined scores were 16 and 19 and with the wind picking up and blowing out throughout the weekend, Harrison has to be extremely sharp.
The Texas offense was sleepwalking at home last weekend in their sweep of Dartmouth, scoring just 11 runs. That comes after they pumped 27 down in Arlington in a major league ballpark during the opening weekend. I don't have many issues with the Horns lineup except for the relatively high strikeout rates from a lot of their hitters. Even in a small sample size, six of their main guys have a K rate at 20% or higher, which needs to improve.
Of course this lineup is led by one of my main Golden Spikes candidates in Max Belyeu who was batting north of .530 to start the weekend. There are so many contributors with Ethan Mendoza and Adrian Rodriguez roaring early, both batting .400 or better with an OPS of 1.200 or higher. Six players have two homers. Jalin Flores had a two-homer night on Friday and is heating up. Against a TTU pitching staff and bullpen that's been getting beat up early, Texas should be able to plate some runs.
They'll be facing Lukas Pirko, a Cal Baptist transfer, who has slotted into the Saturday role for now. It's a small sample size obviously, but he's been decent to start the year with a 4.82 ERA and .275 batting average against in two appearances (one start). He's not a huge strikeout guy (86 in 82 career innings), but he's walked five in 9.1 innings already. You've heard me say it before: most of these big innings in college happen because of too many free passes. This kid could end up being the team's best starter, but I believe Texas will be able to do enough damage early on and then get to the pen.
I expect something of a heavyweight fight like the old days with a lot of scoring. The total moved from 15 to 16 while I was writing this. And you saw how many runs were plated yesterday. With the wind picking up over the weekend out in Vegas, these totals are going to be jacked up, but still have a chance of hitting. Though I do think the over is in play here, I have to take the better team and that's the Longhorns.
#Hookem
College Baseball Pick Today
- Texas ML -175 (DK)
To get the rest of my unlimited College Baseball Slate, join here.
