This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Futures Wednesday: SEC Futures
It was a nice weekend for your boy on the college side, clearing seven units clean. We're at just about the half-way point of the season and a lot of these markets have gotten interesting. There's still a lot of ball left, and we see lots of incorrectly priced overreactions making their way on to the sports books. Tons of opportunities to take a stake on teams that may be poised for a big run, or fade teams that may cool off with a more difficult schedule on the horizon.
In this week's edition of Future Wednesday, I'm heading right back to the conference winners. And this time, it's the SEC.
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SEC Regular Season Winner
Tennessee Volunteers +400 (Bet Rivers)
The defending National Champions came out roaring to start their 2025 title defense, winning their first 20 games. I gave out positions on LSU and Texas A&M in the preseason. The Aggies are dead in this market, though LSU is alive and well (currently 3/1). The Vols were 7/1. Even in a loaded conference, that was still a strong bet to make despite the team losing a lot of their 2024 star power.
The great thing about having these diverse markets is the opportunity you get to make in-season adjustments. Prior to this past weekend, Tennessee was the favorite to win the SEC regular season by a slight edge, but after dropping the series to a desperate Texas A&M team , the Vols record slid to 9-3 in conference. That put them two games behind Texas and Arkansas (both 11-1). I didn't take a piece of UT preseason because I wanted to see how the new roster would look. Now we're in a position where we traded 7/1 for 4/1 with more information. And I'm telling you, Bet Rivers overreacted to the loss last weekend and it's a wrong number.
With six series to go in the season, Tennessee will draw @ Ole Miss, Kentucky, @ LSU, Auburn, Vandy, @ Arkansas from here on out. Clearly the LSU and Arkansas series' will play huge. This team could realistically go 6-0 over the next two weekends, which would put them at 15-3, drastically changing their odds. But it's not just them you have to look at.
This race has six teams with a realistic mathematical shot in Arkansas, Texas, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss. I'd give Ole Miss a less than 5% chance of winning considering this talent pool.
Arkansas hasn't had a true signature series win and with a tough schedule on deck (UGA, TAMU, Florida, Texas, LSU, Tennessee) , they may regress. Their +125 status is a fugazi in my opinion. Texas has a legit chance with a not so tough slate coming up (Kentucky, Auburn, TAMU, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma), but 2/1 with so much time left isn't where I would rush off to.
LSU I still believe in a lot since I don't think they've even come close to playing their best baseball. They look like a potentail CWS winner. Plus we have a 7/1 (2u) preseason hit on them, so no point of going back in there. Georgia is a fun team with a lot of talent, but I covered in my articles over the weekend how the pitching is holding them back and Texas would expose them, which happened in the sweep. But in any case, 8-4 UGA has a higher hill to climb with better competition approaching (Arkansas, Vandy, Oklahoma, Mizzou, Alabama, TAMU).
It makes a ton of sense hitting an incorrect number on what I still consider the first or second best team in the country. Most likely, I think the conference ends up coming down to LSU, Texas, and Tennessee.
The Vols offense is still dangerous as usual and that's without their star 2B Gavin Kilen for the past few weeks, who is still a Golden Spikes contender. They're 6th in the nation in WRC+ (158), 2nd in homers (77), 3rd in OPS (1.044) and 5th in runs scored (320). The scary thing is they have so many studs and so much production from every part of their lineup that they have dudes you never even heard of that will be stars in the next couple years when they get full-time play. Blake Burke, Christian Moore and several others emerged just like that.
Pitching is the same kind of dominance, ranking 1st in SIERA (2.30), 1st in XFIP (4.11), 1st in WHIP (1.11), 2nd in ERA (2.89), 3rd in K/9 rate (12.29%), and 4th in BB/9 rate (2.89%). They have starting depth, reliever depth, and a great closer in Nate Snead who can be used to close out the final four innings or just the 9th inning. The transfer and evolution of Liam Doyle has been mesmerizing as he is shooting up 2025 draft boards like he's strapped to a rocket ship. His 2.53 ERA and nation-leading 81 K's (in 42.2 innings) have given the Vols the opportunity to win almost every Friday night.
The best part is their likely best pitcher hasn't even fully returned yet. AJ Russell was supposed to be the ace of the staff but is recovering from Tommy John. The projected 2025 first rounder is expected to return to a starting rotation spot sometime in the next month or so. It's just comical how loaded this team is. You get the idea.
4/1 on this team is nuts. Should be more like 2/1.
Pick: Vols to win SEC +400 (Bet Rivers)
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