This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, May 28
YTD 73-72-1
Prior article 2-2 (Cubs/Cards PPD) (+0.25 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Boston Red Sox 
at Baltimore Orioles 
The Orioles are the class of the American League East and put up 11 runs on the Red Sox yesterday. Baltimore is 4-0 against Boston this year with a 34-13 runs for and against. They are 13-7 over their last 20, 18-10 at home and 21-14 against right-handed pitching.
Grayson Rodriguez and Brayan Bello is a great matchup, but Bello has been vulnerable to the home run ball, especially against left-handed batters. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 home games in the F5. Getting the Orioles in a spot under -120 at home is great value, especially considering the gap between these two teams.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Orioles
- Orioles -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
Kansas City Royals 
at Minnesota Twins
Cole Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and has picked up where he left off last season. He has hit OVER 17.5 recorded outs in five straight, gone UNDER on hits allowed in four out of five, and gone OVER 94 pitches in those last five as well.
The Twins are middle of the road against left-handed pitching in the last month, so there is not much risk on Ragans in this spot.
When it comes to player props, you MUST shop around because the odds can vary by quite a bit.
MLB Picks for Royals at Twins
- Cole Ragans OVER 17.5 outs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
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St. Louis Cardinals 
at Cincinnati Reds 
I went with an UNDER in Padres/Reds last week when it was Joe Musgrove against Andrew Abbott and it easily cashed with a 2-0 score. Oddsmakers keep posting these high totals in Cincinnati based on the ballpark, but when you have a strong starting pitcher in Abbott, a weak offense in the Reds, and a very weak offense in the Cardinals against left-handed pitching, all signs are pointing to another UNDER.
The Reds are dead last in wRC+ and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last month and that has not changed.
If you only want to take Abbott under his earned runs prop here, I can understand, but 9.5 is a ton of runs even if something goes hairy with the bullpens. Abbott has gone UNDER his earned runs allowed prop in nine out of 10 starts.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Cardinals
- Cardinals/Reds UNDER 9.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
Cleveland Guardians 
at Colorado Rockies 
Taking a pitching prop is always risky at Coors Field, but Triston McKenzie has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in seven straight starts. The Rockies have not been hitting at home against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days with a 82 wRC+ and bottom-five ISO (.134).
The Guardians are the hottest team in baseball right now, going 9-1 in their last 10 and Ryan Feltner has been up and down all season. McKenzie needs to get through 5.0 innings here to have a shot at this one and he should be able to. He has gone at least 5.0 in six out of his last seven starts.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Rockies
- Triston McKenzie OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
New York Yankees 
at Los Angeles Angels 
I went against Nestor Cortes in his last road start and will again here, but this time on the TOTAL because I can see both teams putting up some runs. His home/road splits are some of the worst in baseball
Home – 1.12 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Road – 6.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
The Yankees are No. 1 in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 136 wRC+ in the last 30 days. The scary part about Griffin Canning in this spot is he just does not get enough swing and misses, with 3.6 strikeouts per start over his last 10.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Angels
- Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -121)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
- Cole Ragans OVER 17.5 outs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Cardinals/Reds UNDER 9.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
- Triston McKenzie OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
- Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -121)
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