2017 Rebound Candidate: Giancarlo Stanton

Next up is Giancarlo Stanton, who again falls into his own category. For years, Stanton has been a first- or second-round pick, mainly based on the hope that his immense physical gifts will propel him to hit somewhere around 50 home runs in a season.

Although he mustered 37 in 2012 and 2014, the high cost to get a jump on that magical year has burned aggressive owners, who've received from him an average of only 394 plate appearances the last two seasons. He once again dealt with injuries in 2016, this time to his hip, rib and groin.

With the ongoing duel between the optimism in his fantasy-league-winning power and the pessimism in his ability to stay healthy, what's his 2017 draft value?

The Good

The 6-foot-6, 245-pounder's power undoubtedly continues to pass the eye and analytics tests.

Per MLB Statcast, he rocketed the five hardest-hit balls and 21 of the top 46 last season while ranking behind only Nelson Cruz in average exit velocity (95.1 mph). Stanton also tied for eighth last year in the rate of barreled balls per plate appearance, as RotoWire colleague Derek VanRiper pointed out.

Plus, the edict of "once he displays a skill, he owns it" reminds us of his absurd 2014: .288/.395/.555, with 37 dingers, 105 RBI and even 13 stolen bases.

For his career, Stanton has clubbed one homer every 14.3 at-bats. Insane. That's enough not to worry about Marlins Park being arguably the least homer-friendly ballpark in the bigs.

To his titanic clout, he adds an excellent walk rate (11.7 percent career), thanks to a serviceable eye and, frankly, many pitchers' fear of throwing him anything around the plate.

The Bad

Of course, there's the obvious fact that Stanton has played more than 123 games just once in the last five seasons. Per BaseballHQ, he has earned more than $16 in 5x5 rotisserie leagues just once in his last four.

Although he compiled 134 more at-bats last year than in 2015, he hit "only" 27 big flies for the second straight year, despite hitting for a similar flyball percentage (43.3 percent after 44.9). He lost juice on his hard contract, which dropped nearly seven percent to 42.9, and his isolated power dropped nearly 100 points to .249, though that's probably a more rational number than his previous .341.

Because he's such a flyball-heavy stick, he needs that hard barrel rate to sustain anything close to an acceptable batting average, thanks to his consistently high strikeout rates (29.8 last year) and his career 67.9 percent contact rate. Even with the way he squares up, he still recorded a career-low BABIP last year (.290).

He's been sliding against righty pitching, too: .918 OPS in 2014, then .893 and .779. Much of that likely comes from the fact he faced his second-highest percentage of breaking pitches in a season. Per BrooksBaseball.net:

It's wise to think another bout with health contributed to both, especially the lower-body woes that probably sunk him during his meager seven-homer second half. Weakened leg drive hinders power.

He's just not seeing the ball well, either, which is often an issue with taller players who are challenged with pitches in the extreme high and low corners of the strike zone:

His big body makes him more prone to injury and likely will limit his stolen base potential. Wise potential owners will consider him reaching double digits a bonus.

The Plan for 2017

Stanton must increase either his rate of homers – a tall task even for someone with his stature and pop – or surprise us by staying healthy enough to deliver a profit. He may be baseball's biggest risk-reward pick, behind Bryce Harper.

Still, the market for him has subsided enough in many draft rooms to mitigate some of his drawbacks, and if he can play at least half a season, a 30-homer chase is all but in the crosshairs.

In the second round of a mixed fantasy draft, he still could cripple a roster if he winds up with another extended absence. But adding two stud bats before landing Stanton in the third round or later lowers his burden of proof. In leagues that count on-base percentage instead of batting average, he has an even higher floor.

Picking Stanton must involve planning to be without him for at least a few weeks. At least outfield is the easiest offensive position to replace or backfill in fantasy baseball. Absorbing that risk is much more comfortable in mixed leagues than NL-only, where another extended Stanton absence could more rapidly end a quest for a fantasy title.

Of course, as with most of our rebound candidates, the time will come in a draft where smart bargain hunters will not be scared away from physical and skill flaws. Fifty-homer upside is always welcome when fewer strings are attached.