The first Grand Slam of 2024 is in the books. After an Australian Open that featured a first-time Grand Slam champion in the men's draw and a successful title defense in the women's draw, let's take a look at how the players near the top of the game stack up against each other. The power rankings below are meant to capture current form by analyzing a mix of recent results and previous performance, with an emphasis on major tournaments.
ATP Power Rankings
1. Jannik Sinner (ATP rank: 4)
Sinner remains fourth in the ATP rankings after capturing his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, but nobody has been better than the 22-year-old Italian over the past few months. His convincing four-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals pushed Sinner's record against Djokovic to 3-1 since November, and he's 4-0 against Daniil Medvedev since October, including Sinner's comeback from a two-set deficit in the Aussie Open final. For good measure, Sinner has also won his last two meetings with Carlos Alcaraz.
2. Novak Djokovic (ATP rank: 1)
Djokovic's lopsided semifinal loss to Sinner at the Australian Open looked ugly, but we're still talking about someone who won three of the four Grand Slams last year and holds the No. 1 ranking. The Serb may be losing a step at age 36, but it's too early to proclaim the end of Djokovic's reign of dominance, which has included a record 24 Grand Slam titles over the past 16 years.
3. Daniil Medvedev (ATP rank: 3)
Back-to-back Grand Slam final appearances earn Medvedev the third spot behind the two players who defeated him in those championship matches at the 2023 US Open and 2024 Australian Open. The soon-to-be 28-year-old Russian has been a top-tier hard-court player for a few years now, and Medvedev also took a step forward on other surfaces in 2023, reaching his first major semifinal on a different surface at Wimbledon.
4. Carlos Alcaraz (ATP rank: 2)
Alcaraz and Djokovic jostled for the top spot throughout 2023, and conventional wisdom says it's only a matter of time until the 20-year-old Spaniard regains a form that's at least superior to Medvedev, if not the best in the world. That being said, it's hard to justify putting Alcaraz above Medvedev at this moment, as the reigning Wimbledon champion followed up a semifinal loss to Medvedev at the US Open with a quarterfinal loss in Australia to Alexander Zverev, who then lost to Medvedev himself.
5. Alexander Zverev (ATP rank: 6)
Zverev has repeatedly shown he's capable of going toe-to-toe with the best, but he hasn't gotten over the hump in a Grand Slam, losing six semis and one final. He defeated Djokovic en route to winning an Olympic gold medal in 2021, so Zverev will be the defending champion at the Paris Olympics later this year. The German also notched a massive win over Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarterfinals, but his issues with closing out big matches cropped up again in the semis, as Zverev let a two-set lead get away against Medvedev. Zverev doesn't quite have the consistency to contend for a top-four spot, but he looks like the best of the rest now that his 2022 ankle injury is firmly in the rearview mirror.
6. Hubert Hurkacz (ATP rank: 8)
Hurkacz won the penultimate Masters 1000 event of 2023 in Shanghai for his second career Masters 1000 title and carried that momentum into a strong showing down under, where he pushed Medvedev to five sets in a thrilling quarterfinal loss. While a few players have compelling cases for this sixth spot, the big-serving Pole gets the nod based on his recent play, and Hurkacz has proven capable of making a deep Grand Slam run, having reached the Wimbledon semifinals in 2021.
7. Andrey Rublev (ATP rank: 5)
Rublev is good enough to consistently reach Grand Slam quarterfinals, but a lack of variety in his game has limited his ability to challenge the sport's top few players. His straight-sets quarterfinal loss to Sinner at the Australian Open dropped Rublev to 0-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinal matches for his career. The big-hitting Russian has had more success at the Masters 1000 level, as he won Monte Carlo last year and has reached three other Masters 1000 finals in his career. Rublev was one of six players to win a Masters 1000 event in 2023, along with Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner, Djokovic, and Hurkacz.
8. Holger Rune (ATP rank: 7)
By talent level alone, Rune should be no worse than sixth, but the 20-year-old Dane hasn't put it all together quite as quickly as fellow youngsters Sinner and Alcaraz. The 2022 Paris Masters champion reached Masters 1000 finals in Monte Carlo and Rome in 2023, but Rune fizzled out down the stretch, and his first-round exit at the US Open was followed up by a second-round loss at the Australian Open to begin the 2024 Grand Slam calendar.
9. Alex de Minaur (ATP rank: 11)
De Minaur was the talk of the tour to begin 2024. He defeated Djokovic and Zverev at the United Cup and added a win over Alcaraz in an exhibition match, giving the Australian counter-puncher plenty of momentum heading into his home slam. De Minaur stayed hot until the fourth round, but his momentum fizzled out in a five-set loss to Rublev. While de Minaur's season is off to a promising start, he'll have a tough time moving up further until he finds more Grand Slam success. As it stands, a 2020 US Open quarterfinal result is de Minaur's lone trip past the fourth round.
10. Taylor Fritz (ATP rank: 9)
Fritz had just one career Grand Slam quarterfinal heading into the 2023 US Open, but the top-ranked American has reached that round in back-to-back majors since, losing to Djokovic both times. Given Fritz's 0-9 career record vs. Djokovic, perhaps a friendlier draw that avoids the Serb would give the California native the opening he needs to break through to his first Grand Slam semi.
WTA Power Rankings
1. Aryna Sabalenka (WTA rank: 2)
Sabalenka defended her 2023 Australian Open title in dominant fashion, winning the 2024 event without dropping a set. She's still behind Iga Swiatek in the WTA rankings after briefly taking over the top spot in 2023, but nobody has been more consistent at the biggest tournaments than the 25-year-old Belarusian. Sabalenka has reached the semifinals or better at each of the last six Grand Slam tournaments, dating back to the 2022 US Open.
2. Iga Swiatek (WTA rank: 1)
Swiatek's third-round exit at the Australian Open tied her worst Grand Slam result since the start of the 2020 season, but the world No. 1 has earned the benefit of the doubt after a torrid finish to 2023, which included a dominant showing at the WTA Finals. Three of Swiatek's four career Grand Slam titles have come at the French Open, and her clay-court prowess remains unparalleled, though she quietly hasn't advanced past the quarterfinals at a non-clay Grand Slam since winning the 2022 US Open.
3. Elena Rybakina (WTA rank: 5)
Rybakina was on the losing end of a dramatic and shocking 22-20 match tiebreak against Anna Blinkova in the second round of the Australian Open, but that disappointing early exit was preceded by a title in Brisbane. Rybakina's 6-0, 6-3 win over Sabalenka in the Brisbane final is Sabalenka's lone loss through 12 matches in 2024. Despite dropping to fifth in the WTA rankings, Rybakina remains squarely among the four biggest contenders at Grand Slams, and it doesn't hurt that she went 3-0 head-to-head against Swiatek last year.
4. Coco Gauff (WTA rank: 3)
Gauff is oh-so-close to surpassing Rybakina, but the 19-year-old American isn't quite there yet. After winning the US Open, Gauff reached her first Australian Open semifinal, but she didn't face a single seeded opponent down under before losing in straight sets to Sabalenka in a rematch of the US Open final. Prior to her US Open breakthrough, Gauff's best results had come at the French Open. If she can maintain her recent form through the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) and clay-court season, Gauff could certainly leapfrog Rybakina in the next few months.
5. Barbora Krejcikova (WTA rank: 11)
As with the men's game, there's a clear drop-off after the four top WTA performers. Krejcikova gets the nod at No. 5 for a few reasons. She was one of the three top-10 seeds who lived up to expectations at the Australian Open, reaching the quarterfinals before losing to Sabalenka. Krejcikova has also displayed a higher ceiling than any of the players to follow while excelling on multiple surfaces. The 28-year-old Czech has won a Grand Slam (2021 French Open), and she beat the top three players in the rankings at the time consecutively at a Premier 1000 event last year, taking out Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Swiatek en route to a hard-court title in Dubai.
6. Qinwen Zheng (WTA rank: 7)
Zheng has won 10 of her last 12 Grand Slam matches, and both losses came against Sabalenka, who defeated the 21-year-old in the US Open quarterfinals and again in the Australian Open championship match. Despite that recent success, Zheng is still unproven against top competition, as only one of those 10 recent Grand Slam wins came over a top-50 opponent — a fourth-round win over Ons Jabeur at the US Open.
7. Jessica Pegula (WTA rank: 4)
Pegula is the WTA's version of Rublev, but with even more success outside of Grand Slams accompanied by a hard stop in major quarterfinals. She's 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals and fell well short of that round at the Australian Open, losing to Clara Burel in the second round. Pegula will turn 30 in February, so her time to make a signature Grand Slam run could be running out.
8. Karolina Muchova (WTA rank: 10)
Muchova missed the Australian Open due to a wrist injury, but she had a strong case for a top-five spot prior to the injury, having reached the French Open final and US Open semifinals. This isn't the first time she's dealt with an injury in this wrist, but hopefully the 27-year-old Czech won't take too long to regain her pre-injury level once she's ready to resume competing. Unlike Rafael Nadal, who was excluded from the men's list after having played just three matches over the past year due to hip injuries, Muchova appears relatively close to returning and has fewer lingering questions over her ability to stay on the court.
9. Mirra Andreeva (WTA rank: 35)
Andreeva has now played each Grand Slam once, and the 16-year-old Russian has notched a 9-4 record in those tournaments. Her losses came against Gauff (twice), Madison Keys, and most recently, Krejcikova in the Australian Open fourth round. That's two Grand Slam champions and a six-time major semifinalist. Any lingering questions about whether Andreeva's ready to compete with the game's elite were answered by her emphatic 6-0, 6-2 win over Ons Jabeur in the second round. The talented teenager should be a trendy sleeper pick to win at every Grand Slam moving forward until she finally breaks through, similar to Gauff. It took Coco over four years to finally win a slam after her breakout Round of 16 run at Wimbledon as a 15-year-old in 2019, but Andreeva's game is far more advanced than Gauff's was at that point. Look for Andreeva to rapidly ascend the WTA rankings as her first full season on tour unfolds.
10. Ons Jabeur (WTA rank: 6)
If you take away her run to the US Open final in 2022, Jabeur has a pedestrian 18-14 record in hard-court Grand Slam matches, so a second-round loss to Andreeva at the Australian Open was hardly a surprising result. The lopsided nature of that match raises some red flags, though. Still, Jabeur bounced back with a French Open quarterfinal and a second consecutive Wimbledon final after losing in the second round down under last year, so don't write off the 29-year-old Tunisian just yet. Jabeur's as motivated as anybody to break through for a Grand Slam title after coming tantalizingly close in back-to-back years, but grass is the wrong surface to specialize on given the dearth of big grass-court events besides Wimbledon.
