This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.

French Open 2025: Top Upsets, Locks, and Value Bets for Opening Round

The first round of the French Open begins Sunday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. Many American men struggle to adapt their games to clay, and that could be the case for a seed who is on upset alert, while French underdogs could struggle despite crowd support against top-50 opponents. A rising young star in the women's game is set to make her Grand Slam debut, while a struggling top-20 player gets a nice opportunity to right the ship.

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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.

French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert

Roman Safiullin (+200) vs. Frances Tiafoe

The European clay-court swing hasn't been kind to Tiafoe over the years. He's just 4-9 at the French Open in his career and 2-4 in his last six matches. The 15th-ranked American's big serve and aggressive style are less effective on this surface, so the difference between these two opponents is much smaller on this surface than their 58-spot difference in the rankings suggests. Safiullin won their only previous meeting on hard court in Shanghai last year.

Thiago Monteiro (+185) vs. Vit Kopriva

Kopriva just reached the third round in Rome, but that marked the first time the 27-year-old Czech has ever made it past the first round of a Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event. Monteiro has a huge edge in experience in big tournaments, and the Brazilian's best results have come on clay. He has won his first-round match in three of six previous main draw appearances at the French Open, including a third-round result in 2020. Monteiro has a respectable .482 career clay-court win percentage on the ATP Tour and has reached two finals at the Challenger level on this surface in 2025. Kopriva's probably the better all-around player at this point, which is why he's ranked 85th while Monteiro has slipped to 130th at age 30, but Monteiro's grinding game is a better fit for these court conditions. 

Honorable Mention

Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah (+160) vs. Leyre Romero Gormaz

French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In

Nuno Borges (-215) vs. Kyrian Jacquet

Borges is a high-floor player who tends to take care of business against players he should beat. Since defeating Rafael Nadal in the final of Bastad in July, Borges has been a top-50 staple. He subsequently reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and third round of the Australian Open on hard courts, but clay remains Borges' best surface. Borges' lone ATP title in Bastad came on clay, and his .524 win rate on clay is the best of any surface for the world No. 41. Jacquet is a 151st-ranked qualifier who has never been ranked higher than 150th and is 0-1 in his career in ATP Tour-level matches at age 24. The Frenchman will likely just be happy to be here, while Borges has his sights set on a deep run at Roland Garros. 

Alexandra Eala (-165) vs. Emiliana Arango

Eala had a breakout run at the Miami Open in March, beating Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek en route to the semifinals. Having just celebrated her 20th birthday Friday, the talented Filipina is still trying to find consistency on the WTA Tour, but she has already climbed to 69th in the rankings and remains on an upward trajectory. This will be Eala's first Grand Slam main draw match, but the same is true for the 24-year-old Arango, who is currently ranked 88th and hasn't been higher than 79th in her career. Arango has had a tough clay-court season in 2025, dropping her first match in five of her last six events, with four of those losses coming against players ranked outside the top 100.

Honorable Mention

Tomas Machac (-240) vs. Quentin Halys

French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets

Donna Vekic (-130) vs. Anna Blinkova

Vekic has take a few uncharacteristic losses in 2025, but she's still ranked 18th and has three top-15 wins this year. She took home the Olympic silver medal at Roland Garros last year, so while the French Open is the only Grand Slam at which Vekic has yet to reach the quarterfinals in her career, she has proven capable of finding success on these very courts. The 65th-ranked Blinkova has lost all three of her clay-court matches against top-100 opponents this year, and she's 3-12 in main-draw level clay-court matches since the start of last year, as the Russian prefers to play on faster surfaces. 

Leylah Fernandez (+125) vs. Olga Danilovic

Fernandez is a nice value as the slight underdog in this clash of crafty lefties. The 22-year-old Canadian has underwhelmed in 2025, but the French Open has been Fernandez's most consistent major, as she has won at least one match in all five of her Roland Garros appearances, reached at least the third round three times and got to the quarterfinals in 2022, which is her best Grand Slam result outside of a Cinderella run to the 2021 U.S. Open final. Fernandez has a seven-spot edge in the rankings over No. 34 Danilovic, and while Danilovic comes in with plenty of confidence from some strong recent clay-court results, Fernandez's edge in big-match experience should leave her better prepared for the unique rally patterns of this lefty vs. lefty matchup. The Canadian won their only previous encounter on indoor hard courts in 2021.

Honorable Mention

Petra Kvitova (-135) vs. Viktorija Golubic