This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's been a tough couple months for this article. I'm having success on Kits & Wagers, yet everything I post here seems to hit a brick wall. It'll change at some point… I think.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris examine three matchups in depth and give out a FA Cup Team Parlay.
Record: 41-60-2. Down $1,382 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Sheffield United
Burnley race to 5 corners against Sheffield United +120
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Burnley still have a chance, something that can't be said for Sheffield United, sitting four points below in the table. That doesn't mean the Blades won't give their fans anything to cheer about, especially after dropping the first meeting 5-0.
Nothing stands out in this match outside of both teams probably playing the best they have all season which isn't surprising. This has the feel of a draw at +265, but I can't bet a straight-up draw when I simply need a winning bet.
I prefer to take the more desperate side that is slightly better and still has a chance to get above the drop zone. That gets me to Burnley race to five corners at +120. While away from home, I think they'll have more possession and given a couple more fresh injuries for Sheffield United, I think the Clarets have the overall edge on the pitch.
EPL Best Bets for Arsenal at Wolverhampton
Arsenal -1.75 corners in the first half against Wolves -105
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Both of these teams are kind of in free fall. Arsenal suddenly lost their way in the past week, while Wolves have been struggling since Pedro Neto and others went down with injury. Wolves are already a team that prefers to play off the counter, so this matchup suits them well, even if they only manage a few shots.
That said, while I initially had a different bet, injury news Friday morning changed my mind, as Matheus Cunha and Nelson Semedo were both ruled out, and Gary O'Neil told the media he couldn't wait until summer.
That made me change my Wolves goal/draw bet to Arsenal corners in the first half, assuming they get on the front foot from the start, even if they struggle to score.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Aston Villa and West Ham United at Crystal Palace
Double SGP: Under 1.5 goals 1H + Under 3.5 goals FT between Villa and Bournemouth +
Under 1.5 goals 1H + Under 3.5 goals FT between Palace and West Ham = +263
Aston Villa are tired. They have a short bench and just went 120 minutes Thursday in Lille. Throw in the continued suspension of Douglas Luiz and numerous injuries, and I think Unai Emery is going to take this one a little easier, meaning a bit more patient and a little more defensive than usual.
Bournemouth also have a few injuries and even had Milos Kerkez playing as a left winger last match when Luis Sinisterra joined Marcus Tavernier and Antoine Semenyo on the injury list.
Instead of trying to bet the match by itself, I'm parlaying the under with the Palace and West Ham match.
It's another match that feels like a draw (+260), though I also like under 10.5 corners at -130. Outside of the Man City loss, Palace have played more under control and sure of themselves under Oliver Glasner and I think that helps them against a counter-attacking West Ham.
In the same mold as Villa, West Ham played Thursday and have a short bench even with Jarrod Bowen returning from his injury. The new injury to Jefferson Lerma is another cause for concern at Palace, as well.
While this is the highest-scoring Premier League season in history, I'm the one dumb enough to parlay a couple unders. Shouts to me and my losing record.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 34
- Burnley race to 5 corners against Sheffield United +120
- Arsenal -1.75 corners in the first half against Wolves -105
- Double SGP: Under 1.5 goals 1H + Under 3.5 goals between Villa and Bournemouth +
Under 1.5 goals 1H + Under 3.5 goals between Palace and West Ham = +263
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
