This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
European competition returned this week, which always complicates lineup rotation in league play. Kevin De Bruyne didn't play Tuesday because of an illness and now many are speculating Rodri and Erling Haaland could be rested ahead of Wednesday's second leg against Real Madrid. While every team doesn't have the benefit of hosting a battered Luton Town team, possible lineup rotation always makes it harder to bet certain matches.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris examine three matchups in depth and give out a Team Parlay.
Record: 41-57-2. Down $1,082 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Sheffield United at Brentford
SGP: Brentford double chance + over 2.5 goals + BTTS = +115
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Sheffield United are all but guaranteed to be relegated and Chris Wilder's side has taken an all-out approach the past month. They've scored eight goals in their last four matches, partly due to a healthy Oliver McBurnie and Ben Brereton Diaz.
Brentford have played a bit more defensive in recent home matches because of competition, but Thomas Frank knows this is a spot for three points, something that would see them rise above other relegation-threatened sides.
When these teams played in December, it was a 1-0 result to the Blades, but that was a different time with different motivations. For me, this has the makings of a back-and-forth match that should produce goals because of iffy back lines and the possible absence of captain Jack Robinson for Sheffield United doesn't help.
I think Brentford corners are another route, but I'm taking a somewhat simple single-game parlay that features goals for both sides and the Bees securing a least a point at home.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at AFC Bournemouth
SGP: Under 3.5 goals + Bournemouth over 4.5 corners = +120
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Bournemouth smacked Manchester United in their first meeting, winning at 3-0 at Old Trafford in early December. That may have been their peak of the season, as they've slowly trailed off in recent months and the loss at Luton Town last weekend highlighted that.
I think both teams would be fine ending the season now, which is never a good thing heading into Gameweek 33. Then again, Man United are still fighting for a top-six spot and Bournemouth a top-10 placing, so maybe it's just in my head.
The numbers suggest a high-scoring match, but I think Bournemouth will play it similar to that prior one and they'll want to prevent things from getting too open at home. With Marcos Senesi and Lloyd Kelly both possibly set to start, their preferred back line is finally healthy again. I think the Cherries control portions of this match, but I don't think there will be a ton of goals.
Instead of taking under 2.5 goals at +185, I'm a little more comfortable with a single-game parlay of under 3.5 goals and Bournemouth over 4.5 corners for +120. Taking under 3.5 saves me from a possible 2-1 or even 3-0 result.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at West Ham United
Under 4.5 corners in the first half between West Ham and Fulham +110
West Ham were in Leverkusen on Thursday and while they're back home, it doesn't seem like Jarrod Bowen will be ready to play. That means James Ward-Prowse will have to feature in a role further up the pitch, which I don't think works due to a general lack of creativity. He's been best in a deeper role, operating closer to Edson Alvarez than further up the pitch. However, without Bowen, I'm not sure he'll be allowed to do that.
No matter, Fulham are in maybe one of their roughest patches of the season since the international break and I don't think this matchup will be enough to fix those problems. I think both teams will be fairly reserved in the early stages and while it's possible Fulham come out firing, West Ham are often a team that can limit corners despite rarely having more possession than their opponent, especially at home.
That gets me to under 4.5 corners in the first half, a bet I hit on last week when West Ham played Wolverhampton.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 33
- SGP: Brentford double chance + over 2.5 goals + BTTS = +115
- SGP: Under 3.5 goals + Bournemouth over 4.5 corners = +120
- Under 4.5 corners 1H between West Ham and Fulham +110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
