This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Brighton and Crystal Palace meet at the Amex for another rendition of the M23 derby.
Even though these two sides aren't in the same city, this is a rivalry that goes back to the 1970s and 80s and is always heated. Brighton are fresh off blowing a late two goal lead against Leicester City, while Crystal Palace managed a result against Manchester City at home last Saturday.
Brighton have been solid under Fabian Hurzeler and sit in seventh place. They have only lost one of their last five matches and are one of only three teams to not suffer a defeat at home. They routed Crystal Palace 4-1 at home last season and will be hoping for the same Sunday.
Crystal Palace had a really rough start to the season, but they've turned things around under Oliver Glasner. They have have gone four points clear of the relegation zone after suffering only one defeat in their last seven matches.
Premier League odds can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Brighton are playing the highest defensive line in the Premier League. The reason for that is Hurzeler wants to reduce the space between the lines. That means if you have attackers who can make runs in behind, you can hurt Brighton.
Crystal Palace have that in Jean-Philippe Mateta. He went on a crazy run last season scoring double-digit goals over the final few months and even though he only has four goals this season, his xG per 90 minutes is similar to where it was last campaign.
With +275 anytime goalscoring odds, that's a decent amount of value.
Premier League anytime goalscorer bets are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
Betting on Player Shots
One of the reasons Crystal Palace had their climb up the table when Glasner took over was because he used Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise as dual No. 10s, which was almost impossible for teams to defend. Olise is gone, but the last few matches Glasner has slotted Ismaila Sarr into that role and Palace have been flourishing. Because of his ball-carrying ability and pace, Sarr's able to free up Eze and give him room operate in the left half space.
Eze is the main man for Palace when it comes to shots, taking quite a few in and around the 18-yard box. This season, he's averaging 3.7 shots per 90 minutes, which is the fourth highest rate in the Premier League. That leads me to over 2.5 shots at -163 odds.
Betting on Spread
Crystal Palace's tactical improvements have been noticeable, but they also underperformed at the beginning of the season. For the season, Palace have a minus-1.3 expected goal differential, which is the exact same as Brighton.
I really don't think there is much of a gap between these two sides and I like the value on Crystal Palace +0.5 at +100.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Betting Picks
- Jean-Philippe Mateta Anytime Goalscorer (+275)
- Eberechi Eze Over 2.5 shots (-163)
- Crystal Palace +0.5 (+100)
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
