This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Bournemouth look to make it four straight wins when they host West Ham on the south coast.
The Cherries are flying high at the moment after beating Wolves, Tottenham and Ipswich Town with their last win coming in the dying stages. They're starting to peak under manager Andoni Iraola with their underlying metrics rivaling some of the teams at the top of the table.
West Ham, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Julen Lopetegui survived Monday against Wolves to keep his job for at least another match, but it's looking more like a matter of when rather than if he gets sacked. The Hammers are clear from the relegation fight, but they're floundering in the bottom half.
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EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth vs. West Ham
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
The way Bournemouth create a lot of their chances is through turnovers high up the pitch. Iraola's press is designed to pin teams to one side of the pitch and if they win the ball, they immediately look to play it centrally, where their No. 9 Evanilson is waiting. The other way they create a lot of their chances is via crosses and their main aerial threat is once again Evanilson.
This season he has a 0.50 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is 13th best in the Premier League. With Bournemouth creating over three expected goals in their last three matches combined with West Ham being so bad defensively, Evanilson is a good look to score anytime at +137.
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Betting on Player Shots
One player on Bournemouth who gets plenty of shot production is Antoine Semenyo. He typically plays the left-wing role, which is crucial for Bournemouth because they prefer wide overloads and beating teams with crosses, as they've completed the most into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League.
A lot of his shots are cutting inside and shooting with his right foot, so he typically doesn't generate a high xG. For the season, he's averaging 4.24 shots per 90 minutes, which is second best in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland.
He's had four or more shots in nine of his 13 matches this season, and I like him to go over 3.5 shots at +100 odds.
Betting on Moneyline
Bournemouth are one of the better teams in the Premier League despite their position in the table. They have a plus-12.5 expected goal differential in only 15 matches, which is second best behind only Liverpool.
Their high press is devastating to teams that try to build out of the back and is well equipped to deal with long balls over the top. That said, I don't think West Ham have much of a path to create a lot of chances other than a moment of individual brilliance, something Mohammed Kudus will surely try to do.
West Ham are a bottom five defense in pretty much every metric, which is bad news facing a Bournemouth side that has created over three expected goals in each of their last three matches.
I really like the value on Bournemouth's moneyline at -135.
Bournemouth vs. West Ham Betting Picks
- Evanilson Anytime Goalscorer (+137)
- Antoine Semenyo Over 3.5 shots (+100)
- Bournemouth Moneyline (-135)
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