This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The Premier League fixtures were released Thursday, June 16 for the upcoming 2022/23 season and that immediately brings to mind betting futures. One of my favorite bets last season was Wolverhampton to finish top half at +330 odds. They opened the season with three-straight 1-0 losses and were sitting bottom of the table. I saw those matches and felt like the odds should've been closer to +100 or +150.
While that bet barely hit (they finished 10th place, two points above Newcastle), it's still an important strategy to use when betting futures, something Chris Owen and I talked about constantly on Kits & Wagers throughout the season. You have to look at the immediate schedule when betting futures because the odds will change in a flash.
For this exercise, I'll look at roughly the first three to five games for each team. Unfortunately, because of the World Cup, there are eight-straight gameweeks before an international break takes place, compared to only three last season. I could look at the first eight matches, but that's a large sample and almost a pointless exercise before July even hits.
The main goal is to find the easiest and most difficult schedules to open the season. Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Manchester City and Wolverhampton fit the mold for easy schedules, while it's a little tougher for Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Southampton.
The idea is that you want to bet on the teams with easy schedules now because their odds will only improve. On the opposite end, you should wait on teams with difficult schedules because their odds will get worse. Looking back to Wolves last season, I'm guessing they opened the season closer to +100 to finish in the top 10. In that same article, I also grabbed Norwich City +250 to finish bottom despite them getting torched at the beginning of the season. So while this strategy usually works, there are still some valuable picks to be found after a few games.
Easier Premier League Fixtures
For the most part, I focused on teams who have three home matches out of their first five. Villa probably have the most difficult set of matches of this group, but I felt their first two games had to be pointed out.
Arsenal
(at Crystal Palace, vs. Leicester City, at Bournemouth, vs. Fulham, vs. Aston Villa)
If you want to bet Arsenal to finish in the top 4, now would be a good time to do so. There's a chance they open the season hot with three or four wins from their first five matches. Sure, they seem to disappoint a lot, but if you like the Gunners, they're +175 to finish top 4, a number that will likely be gone by early September.
Aston Villa
(at Bournemouth, vs. Everton, at Crystal Palace, vs. West Ham)
Steven Gerrard has already made some moves and there's a chance Villa add another piece or two before the season starts. They're favored at -125 to finish in the top 10, but that number could reach -150 or -175 if they quickly secure 10 points from their first four matches.
Liverpool
(at Fulham, vs. Crystal Palace, at Man United, vs. Bournemouth, vs. Newcastle)
Manchester City
(at West Ham, vs. Bournemouth, at Newcastle, vs. Crystal Palace, vs. Nottingham Forest)
I'm writing about Liverpool and Man City together because their futures bets are tied to each other. City are a crazy -165 to win the league again and there's no reason to take that number. Liverpool are +225 to win it despite being in the +400 and +500 range a season ago. I think I'd wait on both of these teams to get better numbers even though they have easier opening schedules. I think a team like Chelsea or Tottenham could also start hot and that'd reduce the odds for both City and Liverpool.
Wolverhampton
(at Leeds United, vs. Fulham, at Tottenham, vs. Newcastle, at Bournemouth)
This isn't an amazing schedule, but Wolves face two newly promoted sides early and that has to mean something. The downside is that Bruno Lage is having trouble signing new players and as of writing, Ruben Neves seemed to be on his way out. You can get them at +225 to finish top 10, though I think that number could go to +300 if they falter in their first two away matches.
Harder Premier League Fixtures
This one was a little tougher to decipher, as a team like Leicester has three at home in their first five but their two away matches are difficult.
AFC Bournemouth
(vs. Villa, at Man City, vs. Arsenal, at Liverpool, vs. Wolves)
I have an eye on Bournemouth to finish bottom at +200, though I don't understand how I got Norwich City at +250 after they were smashed in their first three matches last season. There's a chance Bournemouth have two points (or fewer) from their first five matches and if that's the case, they may be closer to +150 to finish bottom. Neither Fulham nor Nottingham Forest have easy opening fixtures either, but I think they have more winnable matches. If you like Bournemouth more than Forest, taking the latter at +300 to finish bottom is in play, too. They open at Newcastle, vs. West Ham, at Everton, vs. Tottenham and at Man City.
Crystal Palace
(vs. Arsenal, at Liverpool, vs. Aston Villa, at Man City)
I like Crystal Palace. They impressed me more than most last season and only finished three points from 10th place despite Eberechi Eze not reaching form until the final month and Michael Olise only receiving 12 starts in his debut Premier League season. If you like them, I'd wait to make a bet because of those first four matches. They are +275 to finish top half as of writing and I could see that number jump to +400 after these first four matches.
Southampton
(at Tottenham, vs. Leeds, at Leicester, vs. Man United, vs. Chelsea)
I'm not as high on Southampton, but if you like them, they opened at +300 to finish top half with that number likely to drop closer to +500 after this brutal opening stretch. They've been an extremely hot-and-cold team the last couple seasons and I'm not sure what changes for them under Ralph Hasenhuttl.
