DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Picks

 MATCHES (EDT)

• 3:00 pm: Atalanta vs. Manchester City
• 3:00 pm: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atlético Madrid
• 3:00 pm: Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Shakhtar Donetsk
• 3:00 pm: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Club Brugge
• 3:00 pm: Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray
• 3:00 pm: Red Star Belgrade vs. Tottenham Hotspur

For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet.

FORWARDS

Angel Di Maria, PSG v. BRU ($9,200): The pricing for Wednesday's slate forces you to take some pretty hard stances in terms of lineup construction, as fading the more expensive players doesn't get you a whole lot because the next tier in pricing isn't all that far behind. Di Maria is responsible for almost all of the set pieces for PSG, who come in as the biggest favorite on the slate with the highest implied goal total. What's great about Di Maria is that not only does he have a high floor, but he gets on the score-sheet consistently, doing so in four consecutive starts, racking up two goals on 16 shots (four on goal), six assists on 23 chances created and 39 crosses over that span. He is the seventh-most expensive player on the slate and likely to be one of the highest owned in cash games because of his role and opportunity. Speaking of opportunity, teammate Kylian Mbappe ($10,500), the second-most expensive player on the slate, is an easy stack partner, as he comes in with at least one goal in four straight games since returning from injury, piling up seven goals on 16 shots (10 on target) and two assists on eight chance created in his last four games (two starts and 206 total minutes). Then again, the cheapest exposure to the PSG attack is Mauro Icardi ($7,800), who failed to score last weekend against Dijon despite taking seven shots, but he had seven goals on 13 shots (10 on target) in his prior five games. Mbappe and Icardi don't have floors for cash games, but they are such big favorites that they could be popular in double ups.

Mislav Orsic, ZAG v. SHK ($8,300): Orsic represents one of the clearest issues of why the pricing is so difficult Wednesday: he has four goals on 10 shots in three Champions League matches and is the clear upside play for a home team that's slightly favored. However, he's also only $400 less than Karim Benzema of Real Madrid, who are significantly bigger favorites at home against Galatasaray, and he's only $100 less than Son Heung-Min of Tottenham, who are much bigger favorites than Zagreb. So, while Orsic offers an alternative to players who are likely to be higher owned, you don't really benefit from the added risk in terms of decent salary relief. He's certainly cheaper than the Manchester City guys like Sergio Aguero ($10,200), Raheem Sterling ($10,000), Riyad Mahrez ($9,200) or Gabriel Jesus ($9,000), not to mention Tottenham's Harry Kane ($9,600), but it's really just not big enough of a difference to justify him in cash games, at least. The only place you're really getting salary savings from the forward position is from the Bayer Leverkusen v. Atletico Madrid match, and that one has by far the lowest implied goal total on the slate. Hey, even Taison ($7,700) isn't even that far away from Orsic or Son, and he's an away underdog in the game with the second-lowest total!

Josip Ilicic, ATA v. MCI ($5,500): Ilicic provides the salary savings we could be looking for, and it only took being a +440 home underdog (via DraftKings Sportsbook). Ilicic had been playing well before being sent off in the 40th minute this past weekend against Cagliari, scoring three goals on nine shots (six on goal) while creating three chances and drawing five fouls in two games. He's leading the line in place of the injured Duvan Zapata, and he was very solid in the reverse fixture, scoring more than 10.0 fantasy points after putting all three of his shots on target while drawing four fouls. With Manchester City's back line continuing to be questionable, Ilicic could be worth the risk given the actual salary savings he provides. And, if you really want to hate on Man City, Luis Muriel is even cheaper at $4,900.

MIDFIELDERS

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI at ATA ($9,800): De Bruyne will always be popular when Manchester City are big favorites, which is again the case Wednesday, even if they are playing in Italy. He showed his tremendous floor this past weekend against Southampton, scoring 22.6 fantasy points without a goal or an assist, and he has yet to finish below 11.7 in any match this season, though coincidentally that came in 67 minutes against Atalanta in the reverse fixture. Either way, with a dominant role on set pieces, De Bruyne has by far the highest ceiling among the Manchester City attackers, but you always run the risk of the forwards hitting their ceilings in a rout while De Bruyne is stuck with only 12 to 15 floor points.

Toni Kroos, RMA v. GAL ($7,800): The Real Madrid attack has been pretty inconsistent this season, though Kroos has been solid lately because of his big role on set pieces, scoring two goals on eight shots (three on target), creating eight chances, sending in 15 crosses and drawing six fouls in his past three games. If you don't want to rely on Real Madrid's forwards like Benzema or Eden Hazard ($8,600), it makes sense to target Kroos in cash games as their primary creator. Then again, you could also target Dani Olmo ($7,200), who is definitely a better all-around fantasy scorer than Kroos but is playing for a significantly smaller favorite. (Seriously, why can't we get an actual price break with these Zagreb guys?)

Marko Marin, CRV v. TOT ($6,300): Marin has been an excellent Champions League cash-game option for two years, and there's little reason to think that will stop Wednesday at home against Tottenham. His role on set pieces will always keep him involved, and we can't ignore that we scored 15.7 fantasy points in the reverse fixture thanks, in part, to six chances created and seven crosses. Tottenham aren't giant favorites, which isn't surprising since they're playing away, but because of his solid production we actually have to pay more for his home game against Spurs than when he was home against Olympiacos (a match that ended with him scoring 31.7 fantasy points, including two assists, at $6,000). He's likely to be more popular in the price range than Alejandro Gomez ($6,200) because Atalanta are much bigger home underdogs, but there's really no one around in price who can match Marin's floor. There are plenty of cheaper options on the slate if you want to roster less effective players on big favorites like PSG's Marco Verratti ($5,400), Tottenham's Tanguy Ndombele ($5,300) or Dele Alli ($4,800), and Real Madrid's Federico Valverde ($4,400), or someone with a bigger role but on big underdogs like Jean Michael Seri ($3,800).

DEFENDERS

Timothy Castagne, ATA v. MCI ($3,200): Castagne is expected to start at right wing-back for Atalanta, and while they are sizable underdogs, he's at least coming off a solid game against Cagliari when he created two chances and sent in seven crosses. The upside is tough to see against Manchester City since Atalanta aren't likely to have a ton of possession, but Castagne lining up in an attacking position while being priced as a center-back is likely to have plenty of fantasy players looking his way in cash games and GPPs.

Milan Rodic, CRV v. TOT ($3,700): Again with an attacking defender for an underdog, but Rodic should be able to move up enough while playing at home that making value on his salary shouldn't be overly difficult. There are a number of value defenders on the slate, and with forwards and midfielders worth paying up for, it makes plenty of sense to pay down here. If you prefer to trust the Spurs side, Kyle Walker-Peters ($4,100) could start in place of Serge Aurier, who didn't make the trip, and we might get Ben Davies at $4,300 instead of Danny Rose ($4,900).

Petar Stojanovic, ZAG v. SHK ($3,600): Look, you can pay up for Marcelo ($5,500) or Juan Bernat ($5,900) or Renan Lodi ($5,600) or Ismaily ($5,800), but you're handicapping yourself at the other positions for only a minimally higher floor. Stojanovic is expected to start at right wing-back for a home favorite, and his sub-$4K price is perfect for what you're likely trying to accomplish elsewhere. He's not as active in the attack as teammate Marin Leovac ($5,100), but the price difference between the two makes the decision easy.

GOALKEEPERS

Milan Borjan, CRV v. TOT ($4,100): If you're unsure about the Real Madrid attack then rostering Fernando Muslera ($3,700) makes a ton of sense, especially after he scored just over 20 fantasy points in a 1-0 loss in the reverse fixture. He's scored at least nine points in each of his three UCL matches this season, though he's now playing in Madrid. Meanwhile, the Spurs attack has been just as questionable and we can have Borjan at home. The save upside is there, as we saw in their previous match, though Tottenham also tagged him for five goals. Either way, it really doesn't seem like a slate where you'll have money to pay up at goalkeeper.