DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Hertha Berlin v. Union Berlin Showdown Preview

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DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Hertha Berlin v. Union Berlin Showdown Cheat Sheet

Friday's derby between Hertha Berlin and Union Berlin is expected to be fairly close, with the home side a +125 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook while the away team is +215 to win (+235 for the draw). Hertha Berlin came out of the league suspension last week in fine form, defeating Hoffenheim 3-0, while Union Berlin understandably struggled in a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich. Despite the recent results, the teams are very close, with Hertha 11th and Union 12th in the table, with the former posting a minus-13 goal differential (35 scored, 48 conceded) and the latter a minus-11 (32 scored, 43 conceded). One interesting thing to note is that Hertha have conceded 28 goals in 13 home matches this season, the fourth-most in the league, though they'll have the benefit of facing a Union side that's scored only 14 goals in 13 away games. As with last week, there will be no fans in the stadium, and given these teams play in the same city, the home-field advantage seems fairly minimal.

Consideration for Union Berlin begins with defender Christopher Trimmel ($9,400), the most expensive player on the team and fourth-most on the slate. His defender eligibility is only a benefit because he's eligible for clean sheet points (neither team has better than 30 percent odds for a clean sheet). Most importantly, he's the primary set-piece taker who averages more than three crosses per 90 minutes more than any other player in the game, and he leads all players who have made at least 15 appearances in chances created. Needless to say, he's going to be the highest-owned player in cash games, and he's likely to be popular in GPPs even though he hasn't scored a single goal this season to go with his seven assists (he has the highest assist odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at +325).

Given the pricing on the slate, you'd think Hertha Berlin were overwhelming favorites, as only four of the 15 most-expensive players are from Union Berlin; that includes three goalkeepers from Hertha and some guys who aren't going to start, but you get the idea. Marius Bulter ($8,600) is the second-most expensive player from Union Berlin, though his price actually seems a bit high given what you can get from other players on the team at cheaper salaries. Bulter has played on the left wing or as a central midfielder, and while he has a number of solid games with multiple shots, crosses and chances created, not to mention four goals in his last eight games (none in his last four), he likely needs to score a goal to make the salary worth it. On the one hand, he has the fourth-highest anytime goal scorer odds in the game, but on the other, they're +230. 

If you're looking for Union Berlin goals, it seems much more prudent to target Sebastian Andersson ($6,000), who has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the team and could have the highest of any starter in the game. Andersson didn't start last week, but he had three goals in each of his previous three games, and he accounted for a team-high 36.7 percent of Union Berlin's goals this season heading into last week, plus a team-leading 16.6 percent of their shots, 29.8 percent of their shots on goal and 12.93 percent of their fouls drawn. Bulter may cross a bit more, but otherwise the statistics we want to focus on either favor Andersson or they're a draw, so why not grab the guy who costs $2,600 less? Or, just fade both and roll with Marcus Ingvartsen ($5,000) for even more savings, though his floor is lower than Bulter's and Andersson's and his goal upside isn't as high, so you're really only playing him for ownership reasons.

Starting opposite Trimmel is likely to be Christopher Lenz ($5,400), who unfortunately supplements his crosses with tackles won and interceptions instead of shots and chances created. The reason that's unfortunate is that there's no upside to a tackle or interception, so while he's a decent floor play who makes a ton of sense in cash games, you're ultimately relying on him to get an assist if he's to make an impact in GPPs. At least two of his three assists this season have come in the past six games.

The reasonable pay-down options from Union Berlin are their central midfielders, Robert Andrich ($4,800) and Christian Gentner ($3,200). Andrich has had some decent floor games throughout the season, though his best have coincided with the few times he took set pieces, a role he isn't likely to have Friday. He's still been fairly active, with multiple shots and/or chances created in three of his last five games, but it's not nearly enough to really separate him from Genter, who costs considerably less and could be a popular punt after taking two shots in each of his past two games, including two off the bench against Bayern Munich last week.

For as easy as the Union Berlin set-piece situation is, the Hertha Berlin one is just as cloudy. It also doesn't help that the two teams have taken the second and third-fewest corners in the league this season, and while Union Berlin have sent in the ninth-most crosses, Hertha Berlin have sent in the fifth-fewest. As mentioned earlier, Trimmel is the main guy for Union Berlin, accounting for 87.0 percent of their corners heading into last week, but Hertha had four players who took at least 11 percent, including three who took more than 20 percent each. And to complicate matters even further, the player who accounted for 11.4 percent of the corners this season took all four of their dead-ball opportunities last weekend while the team-leader in the category was suspended.

Putting some names to the numbers, Marvin Plattenhardt ($10,200) took four free kicks last weekend, moving him into a tie with Dodi Lukebakio ($7,800) for the second-most free kicks this season with 26 (I am defining free kicks as corners taken plus free kick crosses and free kick shots). On the plus side for Plattenhardt, he's played the fewest minutes among the set-piece takers, so he's been more successful on a per-90 basis. After six consecutive DNPs, Plattenhardt has started the past two games, sending in nine crosses in each while creating five total chances. He certainly has be a consideration, but are we really going to pay the fourth-highest price for a left-back with questionable set-piece upside? If that worries you, then you have to have the same worries for Maximilian Mittelstadt ($11,000), the second-highest priced player on the slate. Mittelstadt's role on set pieces seems to have dried up, though it's coincided with a more advanced role on the left wing ahead of Plattenhardt. Unfortunately, it's also come with a decrease in crosses, as he sent in just three in the past two games, with an assist against Hoffenheim a very helpful bailout for those who played him last week (in fairness, he also put two of four shots on goal, both season highs). Paying $11,000 for Mittelstadt seems nuts if you're doing it for his floor, especially since he could be third or fourth on the set-piece pecking order.

I mentioned Lukebakio earlier, as he's taken as many set pieces as Plattenhardt this season, but his floor is shockingly low without those dead-ball opportunities, as we saw last weekend when he scored 1.4 fantasy points in 79 minutes, failing to take a shot, create a chance or send in a cross in a 3-0 win. Lukebakio has played 90 minutes just three times this season, and with teams now having five subs at their disposal, you better hope he gets on the score-sheet before he subs off.

I've buried the lede enough here that it's time to discuss Vladimir Darida ($8,400), who actually leads the team in free kicks on the season. Darida was suspended last week due to yellow-card accumulation, and he's expected to start in his return, possibly pushing Marko Grujic ($3,200) to the bench, though Lukebakio is also an option. Darida is a fairly well-rounded fantasy-point producer, leading the team in chances created per 90 minutes, and he's fourth in crosses per 90, trailing one guy who has played 180 minutes (we'll get to him in a bit). Darida's last two games were excellent, scoring 13.9 and 14.9 fantasy points, respectively, all without a goal or an assist, namely helped by six chances created and 21 crosses. However, a new manager with a new formation could limit him some, but it seems reasonable to take the risk at his salary versus those of Mittelstadt or Plattenhardt, at least in terms of set pieces.

And with all the talk about set pieces, the best floor guy for Hertha Berlin is one who doesn't rely on set pieces at all: Matheus Cunha ($11,800), who has taken 17 shots, including seven on goal, and drawn 11 fouls in his last three games, a span that also saw him score in each outing. He's taken at least four shots in four straight starts when he's played more than 45 minutes, and while his floor is pretty much only the shots and fouls drawn, he's very good at racking them up. Unfortunately, he's the most expensive player on the slate and will certainly not be able to make that price worth it if he doesn't extend his goal streak to four, and his +230 odds to score aren't great. Given his solid floor from upside stats (the shots, at least), he will certainly be owned, but captaining him is going to be costly, especially when you need a goal in a game that isn't expected to have many. The biggest benefit is that you don't have to worry about figuring out the set-piece situation, so there's some hidden safety even though it seems like the opposite.

With three of Hertha Berlin's best options the three most-expensive players on the slate, it's almost impossible to stack them without punting the rest of your lineup, and that strategy doesn't really make sense in a game that should be close. Paying up for one of them and then supplementing with cheaper options like Peter Pekarik ($5,200) might make more sense. Pekarik's playing time has been very limited this season, but his start last weekend has made him more expensive than Lukas Klunter ($4,600), who started the two previous matches at right-back, and Marius Wolf ($5,000), who was held out of last week's game with an ankle injury. Wolf plays more as a right wing-back or midfielder, but with new manager Bruno Labbadia using a 4-4-2 last week, the wing-back role might be gone. It also seems unlikely that Wolf would start his first game back after missing time with an ankle injury, especially after being unable to even make the bench last week. Given that situation, Pekarik or Klunter make sense from a roster-build standpoint because they play on the wing, but the crossing upside really isn't that great.

If he keeps his starting spot, Grujic could be an option simply because he's so cheap, though he's appropriately priced given his limited production. The same can be said about Per Skjelbred ($4,400) if he starts except that he's a bit more expensive. If anything, there's little reason to pick Skjelbred over Klunter if the two start.

Moving away from the floor consideration, striker Vedad Ibisevic ($6,400) should get some attention for GPP lineups, if only because he could lead the line if he starts ahead of Krzysztof Piatek ($9,200). Piatek is on loan from AC Milan and has a higher shot floor, though the price difference between the two is pretty staggering. In terms of roster construction, Piatek really limits what you can do because of his price, and his availability all but ensures Ibisevic doesn't play 90 minutes. Either one is a risk worthy of GPP lineups, especially after we saw Ibisevic score one goal on three shots (two on target) while creating two chances last week.

The goalkeepers should probably get some consideration because we aren't expecting a lot of goals, but playing both isn't likely to be ideal even if it's a scoreless draw. In that situation, neither goalkeeper will get the win bonus, and the save upside doesn't seem great after Hertha Berlin took the second-fewest shots through the first 26 games, putting the fewest on goal, while Union Berlin took the seventh-fewest of each.