DraftKings DFS Soccer: EPL Picks for Saturday, Sept. 30

Saturday's six-match Premier League slate feels more like a Champions League group stage slate. Newcastle have the best home matchup against Burnley. Arsenal and Manchester City are the best teams on the slate, but they play away to Bournemouth and Wolves, respectively. All three teams have to navigate fixture congestion from European competition and fitness issues from key players. 

From the remaining three matchups, West Ham home against against Sheffield United stands out the most to me. Sheffield United only have one point in their first six matches and just got pummeled by eight goals at home against Newcastle last weekend, so the Hammers should have plenty of attacking opportunities.

MATCHES (ET)

• 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal
• 10:00 am: Everton vs. Luton Town
• 10:00 am: Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace
• 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. Burnley
• 10:00 am: West Ham United vs. Sheffield United
• 10:00 am: Wolverhampton vs. Manchester City

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS

Erling Haaland ($10,400), Bukayo Saka ($10,800), and Callum Wilson ($10,100) figure to be popular options, should they all start. Saka is dealing with a leg injury and it's not clear to me if he is fit to start or if he will play much beyond 70 minutes even if he does start. His price is a bit lofty for cash games given the abundance of good plays, though it is always difficult to fade Saka, who has been excellent all season (outside of getting turned by Tottenham's James Maddison for Heung-Min Son's first goal in last weekend's North London Derby; Editor's Note: Jack is a Spurs supporter). I'm more likely to play set-piece taking forwards than expensive, goal-dependent options like Wilson and Haaland in cash games. 

Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez, MCI at WOL ($8,100/$9,100): At some point, DraftKings will start pricing the Manchester City attack appropriately, but this is not that weekend. I think it's safe to say that Foden has around a 10-point, open-play floor in good matchups, combined with high-end goal and assist upside. That's a great range of outcomes for cash games at his price. If you only look at gamelogs, you might be concerned about Julian Alvarez after noticing he only played 57 minutes against Nottingham Forest last weekend. This was almost entirely a tactical change after Rodri received a red card early in the second half of that match, and not a fitness issue. I expect Alvarez to start and continue to take a split of set pieces, at a minimum. I think it's safe to pencil in Foden and Alvarez for at least 75 minutes Saturday, though you never know with Pep Guardiola and fixture congestion.

I wouldn't think you're crazy if you wanted to play Dwight McNeil ($8,800) or Eberechi Eze ($8,000) in cash games. McNeil has a partial role on set pieces and a great matchup, while Eze seems to have a matchup-proof 12-point floor. Anthony Gordon ($8,400) and Jarrod Bowen ($9,300) profile as great GPP players, as well. I think both are capable of matching the attacking output of the similarly priced Alvarez and Foden. Bowen almost always plays 90 minutes, while Gordon's minutes should be safe, as well, considering Newcastle's injury issues. 

Alexander Isak, NEW vs. BRN ($7,100): I don't think playing a forward in the $7,000 price range is optimal for cash games, but it is a cornucopia of tournament options with upside to realistically score a brace. If I played one in this range in cash games over Foden or Alvarez, it would be Isak. He picked up a knock in the EFL Cup earlier this week, so I'm not sure he is even guaranteed to start. He is also an early-sub risk even when fit. That said, I don't particularly enjoy fading players in this range who have -175 anytime goalscoring odds. 

Rasmus Hojlund's ($6,700) anytime goalscoring odds are better than Julian Alvarez and Gabriel Jesus ($7,300), and he played 90 minutes last league match against Burnley. After playing just 15 minutes midweek in the EFL cup, he looks ready to play at least 80 minutes again at home against Crystal Palace. Jesus and Eddie Nketiah ($6,000) might see increased minutes against a leaky Bournemouth defense given Arsenal's injury situation. Finally, I'll happily pay a bargain bin price of $5,500 for 75 minutes of Michail Antonio against Sheffield United.

MIDFIELDERS

James Ward-Prowse, WHU vs. SHU ($8,700): Ward-Prowse can often be a frustrating DFS commodity due to his reliance on set pieces to achieve a floor. Without a solid amount of corners and free-kick opportunities, there is a good chance he will fail to pay off his price. This volatility in his range of outcomes is good to embrace in tournament formats, but I personally am unlikely to bet against West Ham's ability to earn set pieces against a Sheffield United side that has conceded just over eight corners per match this season.

Ward-Prowse faders will have plenty of exciting options to choose from in GPPs. Many of the forwards above could be used in a midfield spot and Bruno Fernandes' ($9,900) price should keep his rostership low. Bruno has been taking most of Manchester United's set pieces and has a ceiling that can pay off his price. Martin Odegaard ($7,100) is already favorably priced and would receive a big boost if Saka is not fit enough to start.

I think balanced roster constructions might be contrarian and fading Ward-Prowse opens up rosters that use two mid-priced midfielders. Fabio Vieira ($6,400) is expected to start after resting in the EFL Cup midweek and he is a cheap source of set pieces. He'll get subbed early, but that risk is already priced in. Lucas Paqueta ($6,200) continues to have a solid floor and this matchup should be one of his best chances to score or assist all season. Alfie Doughty ($6,000) is a crossing machine and I think he can rack up another strong floor against Everton. My only concern is that on what will likely be a high-scoring slate, Doughty might not have enough goal and assist upside. 

Matheus Nunes, WOL vs. MCI ($4,700): As long as Nunes remains priced below $5,000, I think he is a reasonable-if-boring salary-saving option in good matchups for Manchester City. I'd certainly feel more comfortable if I had the salary playing Nunes instead of set-piece dependent underdogs such as Bournemouth's Lewis Cook ($3,600) or Sheffield United's Oliver Norwood ($4,000).  Chiedozie Ogbene ($4,900) is midfield eligible and had an 18-point floor in his debut start for Luton Town and it's reasonable to prefer him over Nunes. Mason Mount ($3,300) started and played one half in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, so I suppose it's possible he starts again on Saturday. He'd become one of the most popular punts of the slate if that happened.

DEFENDERS

Kieran Trippier, NEW vs. BRN ($7,500): Last season in this type of matchup, Trippier would have been a no-brainer in cash games and tournaments at his price. He is still taking most of Newcastle's set pieces and still has a solid floor, but his attacking output has seen a sizable decline from last season. Compared to his 2022/23 numbers, he is averaging nearly four fewer crosses and 1.5 fewer shots assisted per 90 minutes. Heat maps show he has been less advanced up the pitch and this matches with my own anecdotal observations that Trippier has not been getting as high up the pitch to contribute to Newcastle's attack in open play as he has in the past. I think I am still more likely than not to play Trippier in cash games due to his set-piece floor, but I think a fade in tournaments so that you can pay up for options like Saka and Haaland is more viable than it has been in the past.

Vladimir Coufal, WHU vs. SHU ($4,900): Coufal has two assists in his last two league starts and is averaging a healthy 6.3 floor points per 90 minutes this season. He should have plenty of opportunities to add to that total in this spot. He's simply a bit underpriced for his open-play floor and ceiling in this matchup combined with West Ham's clean sheet odds.  

I think the defender position is, for the most part, efficiently priced. Perhaps William Saliba ($3,000) is a bit cheap for Arsenal's clean sheet odds, while Ben White ($4,000) has demonstrated some serious upside from the right-back position. Similarly, Emerson ($4,300) has shown the ability to have big fantasy performances despite poor fantasy output to open the season. Ashley Young ($5,400) is definitely a bit too expensive if he is no longer taking set pieces with Dwight McNeil back.  

GOALKEEPERS

Neto, BOU vs. ARS ($4,000): On a six-match slate in cash games, it is less likely that any particular favored  goalkeeper is chalky. In these situations, I am more likely to play an inexpensive goalkeeper and hope it's a good environment for saves. Neto should see plenty of save opportunities against Arsenal. Jose Sa ($3,700) is a similar play. If you don't want to play a goalkeeper who has scores of negative eight in their realistic range of outcomes, Thomas Kaminski ($4,100) for Luton Town seems fine. Everton are solid favorites against Luton and should rack up a few shots on goal, but they don't have the efficient finishers that City and Arsenal possess.