This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
When people think AC Milan and Inter Milan, they think defense and low-scoring matches. The implied total between the two Italian sides is below 2.50, which means it's almost the opposite of Tuesday's slate between Real Madrid and Manchester City. Goalkeepers will be more popular than usual with both Mike Maignan and Andre Onana being potential captain options. Of note, this is technically a home game for AC Milan, but both of these teams call San Siro their home.
If you prefer Showdown content in video form, Jack Burkart has you covered for Wednesday's Champions League showdown in Milan.
3:00 pm: AC Milan vs. Inter Milan
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet
They've played three times this season with Inter winning the most recent matchups, 1-0 in league play and 3-0 in the Super Cup. They combined for 1.19 expected goals in that 1-0 result with Milan failing to secure a corner while taking only four shots. While it was somewhat of a rotated side, Milan played most of their regulars in the 3-0 January loss in which they allowed two first-half goals and still couldn't find a way past Inter's back line.
Inter have been the better team in both recent matchups and they're arguably in better form, winning their last five matches in all competitions since the 3-3 second leg against Benfica. They're slightly favored against Milan, who haven't lost in their last nine matches in all competitions and are still fighting for a Champions League spot in Serie A (Milan are fifth, Inter are fourth).
CASH-GAME STRATEGY
Hakan Calhanoglu ($10,000) has to be the first talking point for cash games, as he's back from injury and in play to go a full 90. While he splits set pieces with Federico Dimarco ($8,800), he usually has more upside and seems more likely to go 90. Dimarco has gone a full 90 just once in his last 18 starts across Serie A and UCL.
For a simple cash build, you can plug in Sandro Tonali ($7,600) and Ismael Bennacer ($4,200) to guarantee every set piece taken. I wouldn't call either player a must, but in cash games, it makes sense to go with them, as they're most likely to hit that eight-point floor. While Theo Hernandez ($5,400) can have big outings, I don't think he's a better option than the set takers.
From there, both Maignan and Onana are in play due to the low-implied total. If you believe the odds and don't think there will be more than two goals, it makes sense to go double goalkeeper. The only way it doesn't work is if both teams score and neither goalkeeper makes more than two saves, which is always possible. Of course, according to the odds, it's also possible this ends in a scoreless draw and both goalkeepers top 10 DK points, which could be the two highest tallies in the slate.
If you avoid goalkeepers, there are the five field players already mentioned and whoever fits. As long as he doesn't ruin your lineup, captaining Calhanoglu will probably be the best route, though either Milan set-piece taker is fine if you think getting that eight points is good enough. If you go all the way down to Bennacer, that will allow you to get multiple high-priced players.
Unlike Tuesday, the cash build between the two Milan teams is pretty straightforward. There are set-piece takers, a wing-back or two and then a decision on each goalkeeper. Good luck.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
If both goalkeepers are more than 30-percent rostered and close to 10-percent captained, it shouldn't be difficult to be different. Even with the higher implied-goal total, Thibaut Courtois was captained more than five percent in most contests Tuesday.
A lot of people will play for the win and clean sheet, which makes sense. It's usually my favorite strategy, but when it's going to be popular, I often go the opposite route. While this match may not finish 3-2, it wouldn't be crazy for it do go 1-1 and both goalkeepers finish below five points. If that's the case, and you can find the goals and assists, winning tournaments should be easy, right?
There are plenty of ways to be different, as no player has better than +185 to score, meaning there isn't a Karim Benzema or Erling Haaland-like player to dominate the captain spot. Since Inter are favored, Lautaro Martinez ($10,400) and Romelu Lukaku ($9,200) will probably be more popular than the Milan guys, but it won't be by much.
Prior to the second leg against Benfica, Martinez was struggling with form, but since that match, he has six goals and three assists in five appearances, and three of those appearances were less than 30 minutes. Lukaku has been in similar form, as Inter have been scoring in bunches, bagging 15 goals in their last five. One could argue that Martinez has a better floor and better odds to score, but I'm not sure there's a major difference between the two, and it's a guess as to who will be more popular. If you like Inter to score and have more chances, captaining either one of those guys is the way to go.
The Milan attack will be decided by the status of Rafael Leao ($9,000), who injured his groin over the weekend and won't be completely healthy by match time. Even if he starts, 45 minutes or fewer are in play if he turns the wrong way or stretches his leg too far. He might be Milan's best attacking and most creative player, but due to injury, he comes with a lot of risk.
Olivier Giroud ($8,200) has just as much upside as the Inter guys and will be less popular on the underdog. On the downside, he hasn't surpassed more than 20 DK points since before the World Cup, so even through Milan's success, he isn't making the score-sheet multiple times. The thing with Milan is that production comes from a lot of places, meaning Brahim Diaz ($6,000), Alexis Saelemaekers ($5,800), Bennacer and Tonali are all in play. If you have a short memory, the Napoli first leg was won by a couple Milan pieces, as Diaz assisted Bennacer on a counter, while Tonali hit almost 15 floor points.
All that to say, anyone on Milan can be captained in tournaments because this definitely feels like another match in which a weird goal happens. Sure, Giroud won't be an overly popular captain, but he doesn't have much of a floor and no one else on the team will draw an abundant amount of looks.
If you want to join the masses and go goalkeeper at captain, it's not too difficult to make lineups. Find the goalscorers and plug in the full-backs and wing-backs. Even without 90, Dimarco stands out for me followed by Hernandez and Denzel Dumfries ($6,600). And since I don't want to get yelled at for not mentioning him, Nicolo Barella ($8,600) feels like a perfect GPP play. He's expensive for his role and could be overshadowed due to price. Then again, the gamelog watchers could be heavy on him.
