This article is part of our World Cup series.
Our 2022 World Cup betting previews
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H
France disappointed in their last major tournament appearance, but they're still World Cup Champions after riding their defense in 2018. With a lot of those same players, they're one of the favorites to repeat in 2022. They shouldn't have too much trouble making it out of Group D, as them and Denmark aren't expected to run into trouble.
Denmark surprised a lot of people by making the semi-finals in the 2020 Euros without Christian Eriksen, but beating Wales and Czech Republic to get to that spot wasn't the most difficult route. While Denmark are a quality squad, their best players like Eriksen and Kasper Schmeichel are getting older, and they still don't have a true striker to turn to when needed,
Unless something crazy happens, France and Denmark, at -1500 and -280 to advance to knockouts respectively, will top the group. Tunisia have been in five prior World Cups, but they've yet to get out of the group stages and most recently in 2018, their lone win came against Panama.
It's a similar case for Australia in the World Cup, as they have just one point in the last two tournaments in which they allowed 14 goals. They showed some grit to get here, but it's hard to trust a team that was only one point above Oman in qualification.
The underdog with the best chance to advance would be whoever comes out on top between Tunisia and Australia. Get three points in that matchup and it's possible one more point could be enough, though maybe still unlikely.
France are -240 to win the group with Denmark at +280. It's hard to see either one of them not winning it with Australia and Tunisia both at +1700.
GROUP D WINNER
Unfortunately, due to France being the best team by a decent margin, there aren't a ton of betting opportunities in Group D. Even at -250, I'm not sure it's worth it to bet France at that number because they seem to have a lot of tight matches on the international stage. Not to mention, four-straight Nations League matches in June without a win is worrying. I'd only consider betting France to win the group if they dropped below -200.
If you must bet, Denmark at +280 to win the group may be the best choice. They face France in the second match and it wouldn't be surprising if that result ended in a draw, meaning first place could come down to goal differential if they beat the other two teams. The rise of Joachim Andersen is a boost to their back line next to Jannik Vestergaard, while Christian Norgaard and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg are warriors in the midfield. Throw that together with a lot of young and maybe inconsistent wingers, and Denmark have a solid core that could keep France from dominating that matchup.
Denmark to Win the Group +280
If you don't like Denmark (or France), Tunisia to advance at +340 is in play. Then again, they lost to Burkina Faso in this year's African Cup of Nations and I doubt they can do enough to contend with the top teams in this group. It's the same situation for Australia, who probably don't have enough to finish in the top two. They snuck past Peru in the qualification playoff via PKs and this is likely as far as they'll get.
BEST MATCHUP TO BET
Nov. 26, Denmark v. France, Stadium 974, Doha
I already mentioned this matchup and it's one of the weirder ones in group stages because they play twice in Nations League this summer. Denmark won the first meeting 2-1 on June 3 in France and the second game is in September. Playing in the World Cup is a different animal and will likely feature different starting XIs, but two matchups less than six months prior to this one is a rarity in the World Cup.
France were early -130 favorites to win with Denmark at +350. The odds on France may grow leading up to the game (they grew while I wrote this article), but I think taking a draw at +255 can be considered. I think Denmark will try to steal the match 1-0, which would require them to focus on defense and not allow too many quality opportunities to Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe. That's a big task and maybe hard to bet on, but even if France score first, I'm not fully sold on their back line just yet. They had issues at the Euros a couple of years ago and I wonder if better cohesion in the Denmark side could be enough.
