UFC Seattle Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
While the early portion of this card may resemble a regional event, UFC Seattle features 12 intriguing bouts from which we can potentially profit. We'll break down all fights across three platforms, including an exciting mainstay at light heavyweight, and a knockout prop that is out of this world. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Austin Vanderford ($7,800)
The husband of Paige VanZant may be a punchline in some circles, but he has built a wrestle-boxing game that works when paired with his aggressiveness and superior cardio. Nikolay Veretennikov is a powerful striker and grappler but can be incredibly wild and inactive. This should present many different avenues for Vanderford to pick up a win in his debut.
Ion Cutelaba ($7,700)
Ibo Aslan's quick and violent finish of Raffael Cerqueira in October didn't do much to assuage my fears that his lack of athleticism and agility will hurt him in the UFC. Cutelaba will put the Turkish fighter on the back foot, forcing him into uncomfortable positions. He has also cleaned up his striking in recent bouts, giving "The Hulk" another line of attack aside from his power wrestling.
Anthony Hernandez ($9,000)
Hernandez was my middleweight choice to be champion at the end of the year, so it should be no surprise that he gets the nod from me here. The fight between "Fluffy" and Brendan Allen is a rematch of one that took place under the LFA banner in 2018, in which Hernandez outscrambled "All In" for the better part of 15 minutes. Though that fight was many years ago, I expect a similar result here, as Allen still gives up position trying to go for submissions and should get outpaced due to the better gas tank of Hernandez.
Andre Fili ($8,200)
Both Fili and Melquizael Costa can commit to wrestling attacks, but the latter's defense rate (52 percent) leaves plenty to be desired. We saw how doggedly Fili tried to get the takedown in the right circumstance during his bout with Cub Swanson, and I don't think "Touchy" will want to stand at range with an explosive striker like Costa.
Yadong Song ($8,900)
Time has been unkind to Henry Cejudo, as the Olympic gold medalist has been taken down nine times in his last two fights. While these opponents were elite grapplers, "Triple C" gets noticeably fatigued as fights wear on, which should allow a fighter like Song to bring him to the ground. Cejudo doesn't seem to have the same power that marked his resurgence at flyweight, which makes me wonder how he will find victory here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Javid Basharat UNDER 74.5 Significant Strikes, Alonzo Menifield UNDER 24.5 Significant Strikes, and Nick Klein OVER 14.5 Significant Strikes
Ricky Simon's effectiveness as a wrestler seems to have waned with time, but this is too large of a total for someone who is going to try to take the fight to the ground as often as possible. Basharat likes to pressure his opponents behind the black line, which means that Simon will never be too far from his opponent's hips.
A similar dynamic exists in our next selection, as Julius Walker's career on the regional scene has consisted of wrestling almost exclusively. Menifield will have such a speed advantage here that if this fight doesn't go to the ground, I expect him to knock Walker out. Either outcome should be advantageous for our play.
I am not confident that Mansur Abdul-Malik will be the finisher he was on the regional scene, and a quick dusting of the defense-free Dusko Todorovic in his organizational debut doesn't say much for his prospects overall. Klein is good at keeping range when he is not grappling and should be able to prod and poke his way past this total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Modestas Bukauskas OVER 8.25 Minutes of Fight Time, Nursulton Ruziboev UNDER 7 Minutes of Fight Time, and Jean Silva OVER 11.25 Minutes of Fight Time
Bukauskas tends to fight in bursts and lean on his counterpunching, which may explain why his last two finishes have come in the third round or later. This style will likely lull Raffael Cerqueira into a slower-paced fight, and we can't discount the possibility that getting finished so quickly in his UFC debut results in hesitancy here.
Ruziboev and newcomer Eric McConico are similarly lanky, meaning that neither will be able to strike from a safe distance. This likely results in one of these gentlemen going to sleep early, as Ruziboev has finished all but two of his 34 victories, and McConico has ended two of his last three bouts inside the distance.
Something will need to give in this matchup, as Silva has finished 11 of his 14 wins by knockout, and Melsik Baghdasaryan has never been knocked out in 10 professional fights. Baghdasaryan is great at keeping range and is hard to corral due to his footwork, which makes it likely that Silva will see the scorecards for just the fourth time in his career.
Bets to Consider
Jean Matsumoto Wins via KO/TKO (+1400)
We are shooting for the stars here, but not without cause. Matsumoto throws so hard at close range that his KO/TKO total (3) surprises me. While Rob Font has never been knocked out, he is now 37 years old and was staggered badly multiple times in fights against Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera. This looks like a case of statistics that don't quite tell the whole story, particularly when Font needs to stay glued into the pocket to work his pressure-boxing style
