This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Macau Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Macau card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Maheshate Hayisaer (10-3-0) v. Nikolas Motta (14-5-0)
Hayisaer Maheshate - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Nikolas Motta - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I have not been impressed with either fighter's UFC tenure. They are primarily strikers with decent power, and both will have their chances throughout the fight. I would not expect a high score without a finish within the first two rounds, making this fight better to target in GPP contests.
UFC Macau Pick: Motta
Long Xiao (26-9-0) v. Quang Le (8-1-0)
Long Xiao - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 26 wins
Quang Le - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: The fight odds are nearly even, and it is not surprising. Each fighter lost their debut, and this one could go either way. Xio should have a considerable edge on the feet, which should be the difference in this fight. They both have solid ground games, and control could play a big part in this fight. Given how close it is, this fight should only be used for GPP contests.
UFC Macau Pick: Xio
Lone'er Kavanagh (7-0-0) v. Jose Ochoa (7-0-0)
Lone'er Kavanagh - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Jose Ochoa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are making their UFC debuts and are highly entertaining fighters. An early finish is likely, making this an excellent fight to target for GPP contests. Kavanagh is a considerable favorite and is likely to get the job done. However, Ochoa is dangerous and will have his opportunities for as long as the fight lasts.
UFC Macau Pick: Kavanagh
Carlos Hernandez (9-4-0) v. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-0-0)
Carlos Hernandez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Hernandez has lost three of his last four fights, two by finish, and now draws an undefeated debuting Tumendemberel, who arrives from the Road to UFC. Hernandez is the favorite, clearly having fought better competition. However, he does not typically score well in UFC wins, and with Tumendemberel being more likely to end the fight early, this fight is a dog or pass for me.
UFC Macau Pick: Tumendemberel
Xiaocan Feng (10-2-0) v. Ming Shi (16-5-0)
Xiaocan Feng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Shi Ming - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 60" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Here we have a championship bout between two debuting fighters from the Road to UFC. Feng has been slightly more impressive in her fights leading up to this debut. Ming has shown improved striking but will still be disadvantaged in this one. Feng should get this done, but a high score for DFS is unlikely.
UFC Macau Pick: Feng
Kiru Sahota (12-2-0) v. Dong Hoon Choi (8-0-0)
Kiru Sahota - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Dong Hoon Choi - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: The second Road to UFC championship features two fighters who had four decisions on the way to this debut, three of them by split decision. Sahota has the better overall resume and will have the edge on the mat. I would not expect a high score from this fight, but Sahota is the pick.
UFC Macau Pick: Sahota
Su Young You (13-3-0) v. Baergeng Jieleyisi (19-5-0)
Su Young You - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Balgyn Jenisuly - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: The last championship fight for the Road to UFC ends with two bantamweights. There is a solid chance this fight will also go to a decision, making it another GPP-only type of fight. Jieleyisi will likely have a slight advantage on the mat but should not be able to threaten You with many submission attempts. With the striking advantage and a solid ground game, You should get this done.
UFC Macau Pick: You
Ozzy Diaz (9-2-0) v. Mingyang Zhang (10-5-0)
Ozzy Diaz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Zhang Mingyang - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: You will want to have the winner of this fight for DFS, as someone is going to get finished. Zhang had an impressive debut, scoring a knockout win in under two minutes. Diaz is making his debut but has recorded nine finishes; none of them passed the second round. This could go either way, but I think Zhang's speed makes the difference.
UFC Macau Pick: Zhang
Volkan Oezdemir (20-7-0) v. Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0)
Volkan Oezdemir - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
Carlos Ulberg - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Oezdemir has looked impressive in back-to-back fights, finishing his opponents in the first round. Ulberg has been equally, if not more impressive, winning six in a row, with the last five coming by early finish. This will be a good fight to target for DFS. Ulberg is much faster and throws a lot more volume. I expect him to get this done. He is a solid play for cash and GPP contests. Oezdemir makes a solid dart throw for mass-entry tournaments.
UFC Macau Pick: Ulberg
Cong Wang (6-0-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (9-3-0)
Cong Wang - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Gabriella Fernandes - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Fernandes finally got in the win column in the UFC with a split-decision victory last time out. There was much talk that it was a terrible call and that she should have lost. Wang exploded onto the scene with a knockout win in 62 seconds and looks to be the next big prospect in the division. Wang should have the advantage everywhere and will likely be one of the highest-owned fighters. I expect her to come away with another huge win and be a lock for all contests.
UFC Macau Pick: Wang
Kenan Song (22-8-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (20-5-0)
Song Kenan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 22 wins
Muslim Salikhov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are difficult to trust, but it is much more difficult to stand behind Salikhov. His most recent fight was a split-decision win that he arguably lost. At this point in their careers, Song is the more dangerous of the two and throws more volume. However, It is not a fight I would load up on for DFS.
UFC Macau Pick: Song
Xiaonan Yan (18-4-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0)
Yan Xiaonan - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Ricci continues to climb to the top of the rankings with an excellent win last time out and has now won six of her last seven fights. Her lone loss was a close split decision. Yan had a shot at the title in her last fight but was dominated for four of five rounds. She is still ranked number two and dangerous as ever. If Ricci is going to win this fight, she will need to get her ground game working right away. However, Yan's advantage on the feet combined with her ground game should get her back in the win column. Yan will be a popular play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Macau Pick: Yan
Petr Yan (17-5-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1)
Petr Yan - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
Deiveson Figueiredo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be Fig's biggest test in the division. His power was much better served at 125, and his ground game will not be as good as Yan's. Yan is still one of the best in the division, and he showed it in his last fight. He now gets another main event in which he should destroy for at least four rounds and score very well for DFS. He makes an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Macau Pick: Yan
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
