This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC London DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC London takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Leon Edwards (22-4-0, 1NC) v. Sean Brady (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($7,600), Brady ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (+145), Brady (-175)
This was scheduled to be Edwards and Jack Della Maddalena before the latter was pulled and given a title shot at UFC 315 this coming May. Brady accepted the call about a month ago.
Undefeated from May 2016 to July 2024, Edwards won the UFC Welterweight Championship and successfully defended it twice before dropping the belt to Belal Muhammad last year. Edwards looked out of sorts from the very start that evening and the constant, overwhelming pressure of Belal didn't help matters. Now the question becomes whether it was simply a bad matchup for the 33-year-old or a sign that he's starting to slip?
This seems like a good spot to insert Brady, who is not quite ready for a title shot but not that far off. The 32-year-old Philadelphia native is fresh off back-to-back wins over Gilbert Burns (unanimous decision) and Kelvin Gastelum (submission). Brady's one career defeat came via knockout against Muhammad back in October 2022.
At 6-foot-2, Edwards has plenty of size for the division and he knows how to use it. He has limited power, but his striking has always been underrated in terms of landing damage and impressing the judges. His fight IQ is strong, as is his cardio. Edwards was actually beginning to find his range in the latter stages against Belal but by then the fight was already over.
The issue for Leon is his takedown defense. He gave up nine takedowns on 13 attempts to Muhammad. He allowed two to Colby Covington in his prior bout and nine combined over his prior two title bouts against Kamaru Usman. He's absolutely trending in the wrong direction in that area and Brady figures to attempt to exploit that hole once again.
Sean's striking has steadily improved, but he makes his money as a strong, big-bodied wrestler. He averages 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, and more impressively, lands 52 percent of his attempts. He's not a cardio freak like Belal, but Brady got Burns to the mat seven times and Gastelum to the mat five times. He's also smothering from top position. Edwards should be prepared to spend long stretches of this fight on his back.
Sean needs to remain aggressive even if the takedowns are constantly landing because he can't afford to go toe-to-toe with Leon in a kickboxing match for prolonged periods of time. He'll lose in that scenario.
I think Brady has the skill set to emerge victorious but I certainly don't expect as lopsided a fight as Leon had against Belal. For starters, he should get an extra boost fighting in his native England.
Edwards looks like a value play given his salary and I like inserting him in DK lineups as a cheap option, but I think Brady can rack up enough control time over the course of 25 minutes to earn the decision.
THE PICK: Brady
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) v. Carlos Ulberg (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Blachowicz ($7,200), Ulberg ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (+185), Ulberg (-225)
This is smart matchmaking and should quickly give us an idea of Ulberg's true potential at 205 pounds.
Carlos was knocked out by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his UFC debut back in March 2021 and has since run off seven straight victories, including four via knockout and one via submission. It looks great on paper and it's impossible to argue with the results, but the best wins during that stretch are over Volkan Oezdemir and Alonzo Menifield. Ulberg is yet to face even a top-10 guy at light heavyweight, let alone better.
Blachowicz turned 42 years of age in February and hasn't fought since July 2023. When we last saw him, Jan was dropping a split decision to Alex Pereira. The time before than he fought Magomed Ankalaev to a split draw (which he really lost, but that's another story). In other words, it could all fall apart in an instant for Jan given his age and time away, but he's been in there with the best in the world at 205 pounds and had plenty of success. We can't say the same for Ulberg. At least not yet.
Ulberg is a former pro kickboxer and looks the part when you watch him fight. Carlos has fast hands, excellent footwork, and throws plenty of kicks. He's dangerous from distance and has legitimate power. If this turns into a clean, stand-up affair, he's going to have the edge, if for no other reason than he's seven years younger than Blachowicz and far more explosive.
On the flip side, Jan has the more well-rounded game. He has nine career wins via knockout and nine via submission. He has no noticeable weaknesses, outside of his age and the fact he's potentially slowing down.
And while Blachowicz isn't much of a wrestler, averaging 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, he's made a point of attacking pure strikers -- which Ulberg is -- with his grappling game. He landed three takedowns against Pereira and three in his fight with Israel Adesanya. Jan is very good at making adjustments on a fight-by-fight basis. He may not win here, but I'd be shocked if he plays Ulberg's game and goes does getting dominated in a kickboxing match.
The price on Ulberg he seems, quite frankly, ridiculous. He's defeated no top-tier talent and the lack of grappling chops are a concern.
Perhaps Carlos is too young, too explosive, and hits too hard for Jan to survive, particularly at age 42, but this is a guy that's always been durable and should have some gas left in the tank.
I'm taking Blachowicz in what would have to be considered a pretty significant upset, all things considered.
THE PICK: Blachowicz
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson (19-5-1) v. Kevin Holland (26-13-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nelson ($8,500), Holland ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Nelson (-125), Holland (-105)
I openly admit I have zero idea what to expect from Nelson at this stage of his career and I feel like I say that every single time he fights because, well, he never seems to fight. Gunnar will be 37 years of age in late July. He competed twice in 2019, not at all in 2020 or 2021, once in 2022, once in March 2023 and not at all since. He's looking at two-plus years on the sidelines and one fight in more than three years. For what it's worth, he typically looks good when he does step into the octagon.
Holland is literally the polar opposite. This is a guy that fights way too much, something I've been preaching forever. Kevin is 1-4 in his past five bouts dating back to September 2023. For comparison's sake, Holland has fought seven times since Nelson last appeared. He keeps bouncing back and forth between welterweight and middleweight. He doesn't seem to want to constantly cut down to 170 pounds, but he's too undersized to defeat anyone of note in the higher weight class. If Holland is to have any prolonged success, it has to be at welterweight.
The story on Holland has been the same forever. He's a long, lanky, talented striker with no grappling game to speak of and you can typically overwhelm him by simply forcing him to the mat. His most recent fight against Reiner de Ridder in January is a poor example because RDR has spent a good chunk of his career at light heavyweight, but de Ridder simply exploded for an early takedown and quickly worked his way to find the submission.
That's a terrifying outcome for Holland because Nelson -- although a natural welterweight and nowhere near as physically strong as de Ridder -- has 13 career wins via submission and is one of the more talented pure mat specialists in the history of the sport. If he ends up on top of Holland, Kevin is almost certainly done.
Although Holland is fighting my preferred weight class here and Nelson has been away so long, I just have a very difficult time picking Kevin against any opponent with a high-end grappling skill set and that may very well be the only thing Gunnar does at an elite level.
I could see Nelson either getting the stoppage via submission or simply grounding Holland long enough to earn a decision.
THE PICK: Nelson
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (26-9-0) v. Michael Parkin (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Tybura ($8,200), Parkin ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (-105), Parkin (-115)
Tybura has been with the UFC nearly nine years now. He's taken on a bunch of good guys (Tom Aspinall, Alexander Volkov, Alexander Romanov) and plenty of lesser opponents. He's done next to nothing during that stretch to improve his long-term standing in the rankings, but he's a solid "gatekeeper" type capable of putting forth a good effort here and there, almost always against lower-level competition.
The UFC has taken things slowly with Parkin, who is now 29 years old but has just 10 pro fights under his belt, four of which have come with the UFC and another which came on Dana White's Contender Series. While Parkin has looked good, he's literally faced the lowest level of opposition possible (Lukasz Brzeski, Mohammed Usman, Caio Machado, Jamal Pogues) thus far and even Tybura, a fringe top-ten guy at this point would represent a massive step up.
Tybura is big and lumbering. He typically doesn't throw a whole lot on the feet (3.57 significant strikes landed per minute) and doesn't possess the pure knockout power typically associated with heavyweights. And while he can wrestle a bit, it's typically almost always the case of Tybura taking on a pure striker and recognizing he can exploit a weakness. You're not going to see Marcin -- now 39 years old -- lean on his grappling against a high-level wrestler.
Parkin is much smoother and much more athletically gifted, particularly on the feet. He has displayed an ability to string together combinations and not absorb too much damage in return. Of course, the question becomes whether he can maintain this effectiveness against better opposition? I will admit I'm slightly concerned that Parkin was forced to go the distance against Usman, Machado, and Pogues. That's not exactly a murderers row right there and it would have been nice to see him get them out of there in short order as opposed to seeing the final bell.
This has all the makings of your typical 50-50 pick 'em bout and it's lined as such.
The one thing I will say is that we've already seen the best Tybura has to offer and we know what that is. Maybe Parkin can bring a bit more to the table, maybe not, but I'd rather take the $200 in salary savings and cross my fingers there are more improvements forthcoming. 29 years of age is very young in relation to the heavyweight division.
THE PICK: Parkin
Other Bouts
Women's Strawweight
Molly McCann (14-7-0) v. Alexia Thainara (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: McCann ($7,300), Thainara ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: McCann (+150), Thainara (-180)
THE PICK: Thainara
Lightweight
Jordan Vucenic (13-3-0) v. Chris Duncan (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vucenic ($9,300), Duncan ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Vucenic (-380), Duncan (+300)
THE PICK: Vucenic
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (20-6-0) v. Morgan Charriere (20-10-1)
DK Salaries: Wood ($7,500), Charriere ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Wood (+135), Charriere (-160)
THE PICK: Wood
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (13-5-1) v. Chris Padilla (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Herbert ($8,300), Padilla ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Herbert (-125), Padilla (-105)
THE PICK: Herbert
Flyweight
Lone'er Kavanagh (8-0-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (8-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kavanagh ($9,100), dos Santos ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Kavanagh (-310), dos Santos (+250)
THE PICK: Kavanagh
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (10-2-0) v. Andrey Pulyaev (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($9,600), Pulyaev ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (-575), Pulyaev (+425)
THE PICK: Duncan
Women's Strawweight
Shauna Bannon (6-1-0) v. Puja Tomar (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Bannon ($8,800), Tomar ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Bannon (-170), Tomar (+140)
THE PICK: Tomar
Bantamweight
Nathan Fletcher (9-1-0) v. Caolan Loughran (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Fletcher ($8,400), Loughran ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Fletcher (-120), Loughran (+100
THE PICK: Fletcher
Lightweight
Guram Kutateladze (13-4-0) v. Kaue Fernandes (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kutateladze ($9,400), Fernandes ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Kutateladze (-440), Fernandes (+340)
THE PICK: Kutateladze
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC London with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
