Odds & Ends: What’s Trending Week 16

This is the penultimate week of the Odds & Ends column and our last look at every team before the calendar is filled with a series of re-scheduled games. By May 8, seven teams will have finished their seasons: Penguins, Rangers, Red Wings, Coyotes, Ducks, Blue Jackets and Sabres. The remaining 24 will finish their seasons sometime between May 9-19, with the last game of the regular season set to feature the Canucks and Flames.

If your league commission has extended the league to the actual end of the regular season, don't fret — you still have another two weeks to go until May 19. If your league is still set to end May 8, as most leagues are by default, congrats — this is championship week and a winner will be crowned by Saturday night. Hopefully, that's you.

Here's a look around the league at the latest trends after another week of hockey. Some food for thought, some leftover stats and, of course, some fantasy advice. Let's dig in.

All fancy stats courtesy Natural Stat Trick.

Start

What good is this column without our handy chart? Here it is, updated and including all information accurate as of the conclusion of games on Saturday, May 1. Note that Week 16 runs one day shorter than usual with the final day being Saturday.

Teams highlighted in yellow will play four games, giving managers the maximum number of games. The lower the opponents' points percentage (Opp. P%) the better, and it is color-scaled from red (tough competition) to green (easy competition).

The teams to stack are the Islanders, Penguins and Oilers. The Isles face an opponents' P% of just .360, the only team to face opponents with an average less than .400 thanks to a lucky schedule that sees them play the Devils and Sabres twice each. There's one back-to-back, but considering how tight the race is in the East, Semyon Varlamov likely will start three games, and the last two weeks Anthony Beauvillier (five goals and eight points in six games) and Josh Bailey (seven points in six games) have been excellent. Depending on the game situation, look for Barry Trotz to spread out the ice time, so Mathew Barzal may not carry the same fantasy value as he had previously during the season, though he certainly still has the most explosive offensive upside. The Isles have lost once against the two teams combined this season.

The Penguins are also lucky with two more games against the Sabres, but it's a slightly tougher challenge with two games against the Flyers. The silver lining is the Flyers' goaltending has been absolutely atrocious allowing a league-high 3.57 goals per game, which means it's time to keep doubling down on Jeff Carter and Jared McCann, though the latter's role may be diminished a little with the impending return of Evgeni Malkin.

Then there's the Oilers, who will play a (probably) very tired Canucks squad that went 0-4 during their road trip and allowed 16 goals. If the Canucks defense already had trouble containing a fast and young squad in the Senators and a veteran, high-scoring squad against the Maple Leafs, how well can they possibly fare against Connor McDavid? Leon Draisaitl leads all Oilers with 10 points in five games against the Canucks, but McDavid outplayed him by an eight-point margin in April and averaging an absurd 1.91 points per game. 

McDavid's linemates — whoever they may be — will be the lucky ones riding his coattails, and even with valiant efforts by Braden Holtby and Thatcher Demko, the Canucks defense just hangs them out to dry too often. They have a bad habit of throwing ill-timed blind passes up and across the ice that get picked off too easily when the going gets tough, which has led to 11.68 high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, second-worst in the league. They seem to be particularly loose when Demko's in net; while he's an excellent young goalie, he faces the 11th-most rush attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (min. 1,000 TOI) and the third-closest average shot distance. No goalie can survive a barrage like that, which is why even with a respectable .916 Sv% against the Oilers, his GAA is 3.04.

Bench

Teams to avoid based on schedule alone include the Flames (one game in Week 16) and the Red Wings (two games). However, if you have Aleksander Barkov or Jonathan Huberdeau or even Sam Bennett on your roster — sorry, but the Panthers might not be helping you much this week with just two games, and they're not easy matchups against the Stars and Lightning, last year's Stanley Cup finalists.

Beyond the teams destined for the lottery, the Canadiens and Rangers also don't seem like very good bets. The Habs are counting on rookie Cole Caufield for late-game heroics to win, and outside of Tyler Toffoli, none of their offensive players have been particularly consistent. The matchups are tough, too; they face the Leafs three times, including twice in Toronto, and also have road game against the Senators — against whom they're just 3-3-2 — sandwiched between. There's also no need to point out how unreliable their goaltending has been and their special teams hasn't really improved despite the mid-season coaching changes.

As for the Rangers, they'll go as far as Artemi Panarin takes them. Mika Zibanejad scores in spurts and his overall point production (46 points in 52 games) is misleading with two anomalous six-point games this season. Adam Fox should be the front-runner for the Norris Trophy, but there's only so much he can do before the rest of the defensive corps drags him down. Panarin has been amazing, but keep in mind he scored 20 in 10 games during the first two weeks of April and then scored four points in the remaining six games. Their opponents' P% of .617 is the ninth-highest overall and second only to the Stars among teams fighting for a playoff spot entering Sunday with games against the Capitals and the Bruins, including a back-to-back with travel in between on Wednesday and Thursday.

Pick Up

If you're looking for some hot streaks and under-the-radar pickups, consider the Coyotes' top line of Nick Schmaltz between Michael Bunting and Clayton Keller, who have combined for nine points in three games this past week and face the fifth-easiest schedule in Week 16. They face the Kings and the Sharks twice each, and both teams have elected to give some of their young players — including top prospect Quinton Byfield on the Kings — a taste of the NHL.

The Devils' top line of Jack Hughes between Janne Kuokkanen and Yegor Sharangovich (12 points combined) is also getting overlooked, and note while they face the Bruins and the stingy Islanders, they're the only line that has really been able to generate consistent scoring chances.

Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas have formed an effective young duo for the Blues with four goals and eight points in their past four games, and Mike Hoffman has managed to stay in the lineup and chipped in with two goals and two assists. They're ideal candidates for a short-term hold with two games against the Ducks early in the week before having to face the Knights in Vegas back-to-back nights on Friday and Saturday, though the Knights may opt to rest certain players depending on their ability to clinch the top spot in the West. Weirdly enough, the Blues have the second-fewest wins at home in the division and have been a much stronger road team.

Hope this helps. Good luck to all.