NHL Picks for Western Conference Finals Game 4: Oilers vs Stars

NHL Picks for Western Conference Finals Game 4: Oilers vs Stars

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Tonight: Dallas Stars at 
Edmonton Oilers  
Game 4 NHL Best Bets and Player Props

The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers battle in Game 4 of their Western Conference Final series on Wednesday evening. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

Check in on the Stanley Cup odds as the postseason unfolds, as well as the latest  NHL odds during the Conference Finals. Going into Wednesday's tilt, the Stars are -250 favorites to win the series while the Oilers are priced at +240 at BetMGM.  The BetMGM bonus code now gets new players a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500, allowing them to get in on the action for the rest of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Stars fell behind in this series on home ice, similar to the Eastern Conference Series involving the New York Rangers and the Florida Panthers. In Game 1, Connor McDavid struck for a double-overtime winner, giving the Oilers a 3-2 victory, and 1-0 series lead.

Like the Rangers, the Stars picked up wins in the next two games to give them a 2-1 series lead. Will we see a similar scenario play out, where the Game 4 winner is the home side? Florida won in Game 4, but it also has a much better goaltending situation.

Oilers All-Star Stuart Skinner is leaking oil again, at least a little bit. In the Vancouver series, head coach Kris Knoblauch benched him for the third period of Game 3, and for both Game 4 and Game 5 in favor of Calvin Pickard. In Game 3 of this series, Skinner allowed four goals on just 21 shots, but really, only the fourth goal was a "bad" goal. The loss shouldn't be all on him, but some blame might need to go to a defenseman.

Darnell Nurse has been on the ice for 18 five-on-five goals during these playoffs, and the next closest defenseman in the postseason has been on the ice for 12. Nurse has been brutal, except for his highlight-reel "butt save" on Mason Marchment. The 29-year-old rearguard, pun totally intended here, has no goals, just two assists and a minus-12 rating with eight penalty minutes in these playoffs. His last point, a power-play assist, came in Game 3 of the Vancouver series. Yikes.

With that type of defense, or lack thereof, is it really on Skinner in between the pipes? Evan Bouchard is certainly doing his part, posting five goals with 22 points and a plus-12 in 15 postseason games, while collecting a goal and eight points on the man advantage. Heck, even Mattias Ekholm has three goals and six points with a PPG in 15 outings, while posting a solid plus-6.

The Stars have been getting amazing play out of Tyler Seguin in the postseason. He has five goals, 12 points and a plus-10 rating in 16 games, as the pivot is second only behind Bouchard in plus/minus. And Thomas Harley, while he matches Nurse with no goals and just two helpers, has managed a solid plus-8 rating, doing his part as a stay-at-home defenseman.

It's tough to put it all on Nurse, but Oilers fans are up in arms, and rightly so. Just search for some of the memes, which are quite good, including the one with Nurse's face atop an orange pylon. Classic. All of Canada is behind the Oilers, and they're starting to see it slip away again. We haven't had a Canadian Stanley Cup winner since 1993, and if it is Montreal, does that really count?

It's not looking good for the Oilers, and in Game 4, I don't think Edmonton is able to go the way for Florida and protect home ice. This Oilers team has the offense -- it always has -- but the defense and goaltending is subpar. It sorta sounds like another Canadian team which wears blue and white a little further east.

NHL Moneyline Bets for Stars at Oilers

  • Stars ML (+114 at DraftKings)

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The Stars welcomed Roope Hintz back into the lineup after missing the past four games due to an upper-body injury. Ty Dellandrea was back to a scratch, and Hintz's return was huge. Jason Robertson instantly clicks with Hintz, and he posted a hat trick with the left winger collecting two assists. That's not what Edmonton needed.

It's what Over bettors needed, though. After three straight Under results for the Stars dating back to Game 6 of the Colorado series, the total went high. It's a rarity for the Stars in these playoffs, as the Under is still 9-5-1 dating back to Game 2 of the opening round.

For Edmonton, despite all of the doom and gloom about Nurse, the hand-wringing over Skinner's goaltending, etc., it was the first time it allowed five goals since Game 1 of the Vancouver series, and just the third time in these playoffs it happened. The Under was actually on a 5-0-1 run prior to Game 3.

After plenty of games with totals at 5.5, you can now find a few shops offering a flat 6. Let's go back low, and hope to see a little more urgency and desperation from the Edmonton back end.

NHL Totals Bets for Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

  • Under 6 (-125 at Caesars)

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NHL Player Props for Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

For Game 4, let's look to at least one Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS), even though we're calling for an Under. Let's face it, we might get a 4-1 or 3-2 type game, but certainly not 1-0. We'll get a goal scorer. But there are a ton of props outside of AGS plays, too.

For the road team, it's hard to believe, but Hintz is near even-money to simply record one point. In the Player To Be Credited With +1 Total Points, Hintz is listed as -106. Go at that one rather aggressively, as he showed tremendous hands with two assists in Game 3 in his return, and he makes others around him better.

  • Roope Hintz Player To Be Credited With +1 Total Points (-106 at Caesars)

For the home side, we'll roll with Zach Hyman for a goal. Anytime this team has needed offense, Hyman is the answer, when it's not Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid, of course. The latter have 25 points each in these playoffs, but Hyman leads all skaters with 13 goals. In fact, the next closest is Draisaitl and Florida's Carter Verhaeghe with nine.

BONUS - Same-Game Parlay +1600 (at Caesars)

  • Stars ML (+115)
  • Under 6 Goals (-125)
  • Roope Hintz +1 Total Points (-106)
  • Zach Hyman Anytime Goal Scorer (-120)

Let's get it!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Dobish
Hockey writer, unskilled fourth liner, fantasy and gambling industry veteran, handicapper, FSWA's 2011 fantasy hockey writer of the year nominee and four-time FSWA award winner. Twitter: @danieledobish
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