NHL Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This week's article includes a hot Boeser, Pac on a roll, a 2014 first overall pick hot in the Sunshine State, DD living large in L.A., Kuz slumping and a rookie blueliner going through growing pains.

First Liners (Risers)

Ryan O'Reilly, C, STL – O'Reilly is extremely consistent, though in fantasy circles at times, he gets overlooked for a "sexier" option. This year was likely no different, and once again, ROR is producing as usual. O'Reilly notched his eighth goal of the season to go with his 16 assists in 25 games. The shooting percentage is in the same relative range as past production, meaning that we should not expect a decline any time soon. Add his helpers and the talent around him and O'Reilly could remain on close to a PPG pace. 

Brock Boeser, RW, VAN – Boeser scored Saturday — his first marker in eight games — but that doesn't mean he was not productive, as he had four assists in that stretch. Vancouver's first-round pick in 2015, Boeser added two apples Saturday and is tied for ninth in the NHL in scoring with 28 points in 29 games. The marker tied Boeser for fifth in the league in goals with 13, as he continues to take the next step as a fantasy asset, though he was already a solid one even before this season.

Chris Kreider, LW, NYR – With the Rangers a MASH ward and Artemi Panarin sidelined, Kreider has stepped up his game. After notching an assist Saturday, Kreider has nine goals and a pair of apples in his last eight games, giving a Cy Young-like 13 markers and three assists in 23 games. Kreider has always been streaky, best when steaming up the wing, using his speed to create space and his physical presence to carve out room in front of the net. Expect a slump at some point, followed by a rebound.  

Max Pacioretty, LW, LV – Pacioretty continues to rack up points in the Desert, adding another assist Saturday. That apple gave the left winger eight points in his last four games, making his slump of two goals in eight games seem like a distant memory. Pacioretty has 12 goals, 21 points, 100 shots and a plus-10 rating through 21 appearances. After a poor last season in Montreal and first year in Las Vegas, Pacioretty rebounded to score 66 points last year, carrying forward that fine play into this campaign.

Aaron Ekblad, D, FLA – Ekblad remained hot Saturday, notching a goal and assist to help propel the Panthers to another win. With nine markers and eight apples in 24 games, the 2014 first overall pick is having another solid campaign. Part of that rise is due to an unsustainable shooting percentage, but even a regression to the mean likely won't result in a major decline in points. That's because Ekblad plays more than 25 minutes a game, including three-and-a-half on the man-advantage, where he benefits from the substantial talent around him. 

Drew Doughty, D, LA – Doughty fell substantially in my home fantasy league, driven by his decline in production the last two years and concern over L.A. players as viable fantasy options. Through about 40 percent of the season, Doughty has made me and my other league mates — and likely many others — look foolish with his turn-back-the clock performance.  His two assists Monday gave DD, 21 points (13 on the power play) along with 42 shots on net, 37 hits, 36 blocked shots and a plus-three rating in 24 games. Doughty's scoring pace per game is at a career high, albeit with close to 60 percent of the year to go.

Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI – Varlamov's name should maybe be in italics since Ilya Sorokin is pushing Varly for playing time between the pipes. The two have alternated starts the Islanders' last four games but Varlamov is still the defacto No. 1 goalie for the Isles. His win Saturday made Varlamov 11-4-3 with a stellar 2.10 goals-against average (GAA) and .926 save percentage. Just be aware that he will continue to cede some starts to Sorokin as the season moves forward on the Island.

Thatcher Demko, G, VAN – Demko's inclusion on this side of the ledger is as much due to his fine performance lately as Braden Holtby's continue struggles. After allowing just two goals on 39 shots in a win Saturday over the Maple Leafs, Demko has allowed just five goals on 131 shots his last four starts, which have occurred over Vancouver's last five games overall. The switching of the guard between the pipes, which looked likely after Demko's performance in the bubble last year, now appears to be reality, just delayed due to the team's signing of Holtby this offseason.

Others include Ryan Strome, Evgeni Malkin, Aleksander Barkov, John Tavares, Joe Pavelski, Anze Kopitar, Jordan Staal, Dillon Dube, Brayden Schenn, Mathew Barzal, Troy Terry, Patrice Bergeron, Gabriel Vilardi, J.T. Miller, Kevin Labanc, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikko Rantanen, Eeli Tolvanen, Jake Guentzel, Brendan Gallagher, Filip Forsberg, David Perron, Drake Batherson, Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Tuch, Mike Hoffman, Mats Zuccarello, Dustin Brown, Miro Heiskanen, Samuel Girard, Adam Fox, Jakob Chychrun, Marc-Andre Fleury, Kaapo Kahkonen and Sergei Bobrovsky.

Buy Low 

Rickard Rakell, C, ANA – It's another lost season in Anaheim, as they continue their transition to a younger squad. Profiled earlier in the season, Rakell warrants another mention and his usage at center depends on your league. Irrespective of position, Rakell's mild slump is a thing of the past. Monday was Rakell's second consecutive three-point effort, with his point streak reaching six games. Now up to six goals and 13 assists in 26 games, Rakell still has room to grow, as his shooting percentage is still below 8.1 percent he posted last year, which was down from his poor 2018-19. But the buy-low window may have passed. 

Training Room (Injuries)

Tyler Seguin, C, DAL – If looking for a late-season stash that could pay nice dividends, grab Seguin now. Seguin is lightly skating and on target to return in 4-6 weeks. He was always expected to be sidelined until at least April after undergoing hip surgery in November, so this news doesn't necessarily change his timeline, but it's good to receive early confirmation that he is still on target and has not suffered any setbacks. Another update on the 29-year-old pivot should surface once he's cleared to start practicing with his teammates, probably the latter part of the month. 

Others include Nathan MacKinnon (upper body, took headshot Wednesday against the Sharks, will miss at least a few games), Dylan Larkin (upper body, missed last four games, could play Tuesday), Dylan Strome (concussion, placed on IR retroactive to Feb. 19), Matt Duchene (lower body, out 3-5 weeks, placed on injured reserve Saturday), Timo Meier (lower body, missed Saturday's game), Vladimir Tarasenko (shoulder returned to action on March 5), Jacob Trouba (broken thumb, returned Sunday, missed just three weeks out of what was to be a 4-6 week absence), Igor Shesterkin (groin strain, suffered Match 5, not as serious as first looked when he was injured) and Ben Bishop (knee, skating, but not back until April). 

Fourth Liners/Press Boxers (Fallers)

Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, WAS – Injuries and COVID certainly haven't helped, but Kuznetsov has struggled when on the ice. With just a pair of goals and four helpers in 13 games, Kuz is off to a brutal start to the 2020-21. He is still skating next to Alex Ovechkin on Washington's top line, so all is not lost. But Kuznetsov is on the team's second power play unit and will see his production decline for the third consecutive season after posting 83 points in 2017-18 after signing an eight-year, $62.4 million contract extension with the Capitals in July 2017.

Tanner Pearson, LW, VAN – Pearson was held off the scoresheet Monday, the 10th consecutive contest he has failed to post a point. After posting a career-high 45 points in 69 games last season, Pearson has just five goals and four assists in 28 appearances this year. In the last year of the four-year contract he signed with the Kings in May 2017, Pearson's shooting percentage is at 7.7 percent, a notable decrease from his career average 11.6 percent. A correction to the norm should mean more goals in the second half of the campaign, but only if Pearson continues to see top-six minutes.

Pekka Rinne, G, NAS – Rinne, seeing more time between the pipes with Juuse Saros sidelined, bottomed out Saturday. He allowed six goals in the loss Saturday, his fourth consecutive loss, a span in which he has surrendering 16 goals. This streak came after Rinne reeled off three wins in four outings and was beaten for just 11 goals in a seven-game stint. Rinne notched the win Sunday, allowing three goals on 38 shots, but when Saros returns to action, he should resume his role as the starter. Keep in mind, though, he too has struggled at times, which still might allow Rinne to be a plug-and-play option at times.

Others include Lias Andersson, Mika Zibanejad, Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Denis Gurianov, Anthony Mantha, Alexander Edler, Noah Hanifin, Braden Holtby, Carter Hart, Carter Hutton and MacKenzie Blackwood. 

Sell High

Ty Smith, D, NJ – Repeat after me, defenseman growth is not linear, defenseman growth is not linear. After getting shutout Saturday, Smith has failed to dent the scoresheet in nine of his last 11 games. Overall, Smith, a first-rounder in 2018, has two goals and nine helpers in 20 games, but much of that production came earlier in the season. Only move Smith in single-season leagues, as his value in keeper leagues is substantive. I do expect a rebound before too long, so be cautious in moving him.