Frozen Fantasy: In or Out?

American Thanksgiving is soon upon us. That's when NHL analysts start the "you're in or you're out" conversation. Some leads just can't be overcome.

I'm looking at you, New Jersey.

Statistically, 76 percent of teams in the cap era in a playoff spot come Turkey Time stay in a spot by golf season. And if that holds true this year, 12 of the 16 right now are a lock.

And four will be… displaced. Yeah, let's call it that. It's kinder than "kicked to the curb".

The East is tight. Only fans of the Isles and Devils believed in their ascension, but it's hard to see them dropping. Just check out the goal differential. There are four teams in the wild card hunt right now – Red Wings, Rangers, Panthers and Pens.

The Wings are too easy to bet against – Stevie Y has built a formidable squad. The Rangers are good, but overachieved last season because of Igor Shesterkin. The Panthers look like they have a thorn in their paw. And the Pens?

Sidney Crosby has carried lesser teams.

And the Caps aren't about to rebuild with Alex Ovechkin chasing that record, so their pursuit will be aggressive. Even the Senators only have a minus-3 goal differential. That's just bad luck. And we've seen worse go to the playoffs before.

That's a fact. I don't think it's possible this time.

The West is more uncertain. The Kings carry a negative differential, yet are second in the Pacific on Sunday afternoon. The Kraken aren't sexy, but the team sure is sturdy. And can the Jets keep this up?

The Flames can't be this bad on the road forever. Neither can the Preds. And the Wild won't be this awful at home forever… right?

Maybe it's time for the magic eight ball. And about as accurate. At least it'll be fun to watch.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Jakob Chychrun, D, Arizona (44 percent Yahoo!) – This is a stash-and-trade reco – Chychrun is good, but his name value is greater than this year's impact. Sure, he's a talent, but he can't stay healthy. And it's hard for anyone to get up to NHL speed mid-year, let alone a defender on a bad team that will immediately overuse him. I'm grabbing Chychrun now and then I'll upgrade at the first chance I get. I know that sounds heartless, but that's OK. I'm looking for ROI, not a project at this point. I want to win.

Ian Cole, D, Tampa Bay (1 percent Yahoo!) – Sometimes stay-at-home defenders have fantasy value that others can't see. Cole has blocked 17 shots and leveled a dozen hits in his last five games. His goal and four assists during that span are gravy. Really good gravy. Cole has a couple of big blocked-shot seasons on his resume. And while they were a while ago, that doesn't mean he's lost that skill. Cole may be an ideal fill for your last D spot if he can repeat along with 25 points and 100-plus hits.

Pavel Francouz, G, Colorado (33 percent Yahoo!) – The Denver net has mostly been Alexandar Georgiev's, but Francouz has impressed when in the paint. Last week, he won twice and stopped 70 of 73 pucks. And his overall numbers – aside from Ws – are remarkably similar to the starter's. Heading into Saturday night, the save percentages were essentially the same (.925 for Francouz, .924 for Georgiev), but the GAA was way better (2.42 vs. 2.70). Francouz could – or perhaps should be in line for more starts if he keeps this up.

Alex Killorn, LW/RW, Tampa Bay (23 percent Yahoo!) – Don't look now, but Killorn looks like he's finally channeling his inner Ondrej Palat. The Harvard grad is a complementary scorer who's riding shotgun with Steven Stamkos. Killorn had six points in his last four games and he's up to 14 (six goals, eight points) in 18 games. At this rate, Killorn will top his 59-point career best from last year.

Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus (8 percent Yahoo!) – Kuraly was under the radar last year, but managers in hit leagues knew his name. He finished with 240 and added 30 points, including 14 goals. Yes, you'd like more from a center-only guy. But if you have an F spot, Kuraly might be the right kind of boost. His three-goal, one-assist streak (six hits and seven shots) was snapped Saturday night, but his ice time remained high. He won't continue to put up that kind of scoring, but the hit parade will continue. And fantasy managers are catching on – Kuraly went from one to eight in a day this week.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Buffalo (5 percent Yahoo!) – Eric Comrie is week-to-week, so it's Luukkonen time… at least in a platoon. He worked hard this summer to get stronger and quicker, and has looked a lot better than when he got called up last January. Even if his AHL stats don't necessarily show it. Luukkonen and the Sabres had a hard time Saturday night, but the Leafs are among the fastest and most talented teams in the league. I still like him over the next few weeks. And beyond. The Sabres need to figure what they've got. Luukkonen is part of that.

Trevor Moore, LW/RW, Los Angeles (40 percent Yahoo!) – Holy roster rise – I guess all it took was a hat-trick in a Canadian market to catch eyes (and double the number of rosters he's on). Moore scored all three goals Wednesday in the Oil Patch. I've mentioned him before, so I won't belabor the point. His breakout last year was clearly real. Don't sleep on him.

Juuso Parssinen, C, Nashville (4 percent Yahoo!) – Parssinen debuted a week ago on a line with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund and immediately made a dent. He notched his first NHL goal and followed it two games later with a two-goal, three-point outburst. And he added a helper Saturday night. Sure, there will be growing pains. But Parssinen is fast and strong, loves to pursue pucks and stand in front of the net. Coach John Hynes is giving him a lot of time on PP1 and he hasn't looked out of place. I can't wait for him to get eligibility on the wing. Parssinen could be another seventh-round gem.

Adam Ruzicka, C, Calgary (3 percent Yahoo!) – Ruzicka has been a revelation since being shifted to the wing. The first-line gig helped for sure, but his talent has taken him to new heights. On Saturday afternoon, he rang up two goals and added an assist, and has eight points (four goals, four assists) in seven games. Ruzicka is in a temporary gig beside Tyler Toffoli and Elias Lindholm as coach Darryl Sutter shuffles lines. But he's showing enough to stick in the top-six ahead of Dillon Dube and should get wing eligibility soon.

Owen Tippett, RW, Philadelphia (6 percent Yahoo!) – I've been waiting on Tippett in a dynasty league for years. Honestly, I came close to dropping him last year. I'm glad I didn't. Tippett is slowly warming up and is riding a modest four-game, five-point streak (three goals, two assists). His skill has never been doubted. It's his "engagement" that has. Maybe John Tortorella's toughened him up a bit. Who knows? Tippett's plus/minus is likely to be a liability if your format counts that stat. But if not…

Back to the in-or-out discussion.

I'm not sold on the Kings, even though they've impressed. The Jets? Outside. Blues, too. I'm also worried about the Rangers taking a step back.

And the Panthers? Their path is tough given the chemistry they're trying to build. Even the Bolts and Buds – it's hard to count them out. But there are more wobbles to come, especially for the blue-and-white.

However, I'm sold on Jersey – they're not your dad's Devils any more. The Stars, too, even though I've never been a fan.

And the Kraken. Those blue-haired trolls might just be good enough buoys to get in.

I can't believe I just said that.

So, who's on your list?

Until next week.